5525 E Thomas Rd · Phoenix, AZ 85018

$219,990

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 848 sqft · Condo public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1974

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This darling unit is like brand new! All new flooring, all new kitchen w/granite & built-in cabinets for storage. Custom tile backsplash, new appliances, sit up bar. All new doors throughout, new sliding door to patio, all new windows, new plantation shutters, new fans, brand new bathroom with large tiled & glass shower, newer heat pump and AC unit only 5 years old, new 200 amp electrical box with all new breakers. Nice large patio, front entrance closet/storage, nice sized closets w/shelving, new custom paint. Perfect location!! Pool side, (great pool w/spa)next to bbq's, right across from nice laundry facility. You have to see this unit to appreciate it! Perfect lock and leave or full time place to call home!!

Key facts

• Private corner condo
• Laundry facilities
• Modern upgrades

Tags

• PRIVATE CORNER CONDO
• OVERLOOKS THE POOL
• MODERN UPGRADES
• PLANTATION SHUTTERS
• LAUNDRY FACILITIES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Condo
• Construction: Living area approximately 848 (units not specified)
• Exterior features: Lot size approximately 849 (units not specified)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Condo with layout for one or more bedrooms (total living area 848)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (16.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (16.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Phoenix Union High School District (4286) (urban): math 10% / reading 15% proficiency, ranked #224 of 249 in AZ (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Griffith Elementary School (math 6% / reading 16%, grade F, #980 of 1,109 statewide, top 89%, 489 students, 85% FRL); Pat Tillman Middle School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #188 of 218 statewide, top 88%, 652 students, 100% FRL); Camelback High School (math 6% / reading 7%, grade F, #363 of 381 statewide, top 95%, 2,238 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $163k; 35% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,662 (16.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-52,596
• Equity at exit: $32,801

10-year hold

• IRR: -37.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-81,139
• Equity at exit: $19,021

Cash invested: $61,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85018

• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,837 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $579/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA est. from 1 same-building comp: −$341
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$386
• Net cashflow: $-184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069

Max offer price $187,544

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-59	-5% $-121	+0% $-184	+5% $-246	+10% $-308
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-256	+0% $-184	+5% $-111	+10% $-39
Rate	-1.0pp $-73	-0.5pp $-128	base $-184	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-299

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,998
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5525 E Thomas Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	889	$3,200	$3.60	3d	5	0.02mi
5525 E Thomas Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	889	$2,000	$2.25	0d	4	0.02mi
5401 E Thomas Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	856	$1,596	$1.86	0d	9	0.13mi
5333 E Thomas Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	612	$1,450	$2.37	0d	11	0.23mi
5225 E Thomas Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	622	$1,390	$2.23	0d	41	0.34mi
2535 N 52nd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,650	$1.68	0d	1	0.45mi
2525 N 52nd St Unit 5 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	650	$995	$1.53	0d	1	0.48mi
2930 N 52nd St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–1.5	730	$1,799	$2.46	1d	6	0.49mi
5900 E Thomas Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,799	$2.17	1d	21	0.50mi
2338 N 52nd St Unit A Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,650	$1.50	25d	1	0.58mi
5146 E Oak St #208 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	810	$2,500	$3.09	0d	1	0.62mi
5146 E Oak St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	810	$2,100	$2.59	16d	2	0.62mi
5024 E Thomas Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	600	$1,295	$2.16	5d	5	0.62mi
2938 N 61st Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,499	$1.76	45d	2	0.66mi
2938 N 61st Pl Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	1029	$1,850	$1.80	9d	1	0.66mi
2938 N 61st Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,499	$1.76	46d	2	0.66mi
2938 N 61st Pl Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	861	$1,850	$2.15	20d	2	0.66mi
6080 E Thomas Rd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	905	$3,373	$3.73	1d	20	0.68mi
5008 E Thomas Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	613	$1,498	$2.44	1d	6	0.69mi
2938 N 61st Pl #219 Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	1.5	1107	$2,400	$2.17	6d	1	0.72mi
5126 E Monte Vista Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,650	$1.49	0d	1	0.75mi
4902 E Thomas Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	690	$1,365	$1.98	0d	39	0.79mi
2514 N 49th St Apt 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	815	$1,200	$1.47	3d	1	0.86mi
2514 N 49th St Apt 2 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	815	$1,200	$1.47	0d	1	0.86mi
4819 E Cambridge Ave #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,399	$1.65	0d	1	0.88mi
2617 N 48th St Apt 4 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	940	$1,375	$1.46	3d	1	0.88mi
2523 N 48th Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	900	$1,450	$1.61	9d	1	0.88mi
1835 N 51st St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	940	$1,295	$1.38	5d	1	0.89mi
2015 N 50th St #34 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1050	$2,195	$2.09	0d	1	0.92mi
2547 N 48th St Apt 5 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$1,245	$1.78	0d	1	0.93mi
2539 N 48th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	440	$1,245	$2.83	0d	2	0.94mi
1826 N 51st St Unit 3 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	768	$1,295	$1.69	23d	1	0.94mi
2015 N 50th St #5 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1050	$2,295	$2.19	0d	1	0.95mi
1826 N 51st St Unit 18 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	768	$1,495	$1.95	3d	1	0.96mi
1826 N 51st St Unit 29 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	768	$1,295	$1.69	9d	1	0.96mi
1826 N 51st St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	3d	1	0.96mi
1826 N 51st St Unit 26 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	768	$1,295	$1.69	0d	1	0.96mi
4917 E Holly St Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	925	$1,445	$1.56	0d	2	0.97mi
1637 N 51st St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	707	$1,445	$2.04	0d	3	0.98mi
1826 N 51st St #1 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	850	$1,495	$1.76	0d	1	0.98mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: electricpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,990 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,990 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,990 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,990 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,990 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,990 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,990 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,990 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,990 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    remarks 453-char remark
11. 2026-06-04
    listed $219,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $579 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$872/yr (+$73/mo · 150.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,039
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$579
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,763
• − Management: −$1,763
• − HOA: −$4,092
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$5,981
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,435
• After-tax cash flow: $-769/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix Union High School District (4286)
• NCES district ID: 0406330
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 15% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $39,055
• Composite: 10.63/100
• National rank: #9773
• State rank: #224 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 37,297
• Household income: $93,885
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1649.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -893.49%
• Current HPI: 445.5868
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.02%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-97.2% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $219,990 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-05-06 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $224,999 ARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $229,500 ARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $235,450 ARMLS
• 2020-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $163,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-13 Sold (MLS) $163,000 ARMLS
• 2020-05-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-05-07 Listed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2020-05-06 Sold (MLS) $163,000 ARMLS
• 2020-05-01 Pending — ARMLS
• 2020-04-14 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2020-04-08 Listed $175,000 ARMLS
• 2015-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2015-01-28 Sold (MLS) $73,000 ARMLS
• 2015-01-15 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2014-12-19 Price Changed $75,900 ARMLS
• 2014-10-03 Price Changed $77,500 ARMLS
• 2014-08-30 Listed $78,900 ARMLS
• 2014-06-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2014-04-10 Price Changed $77,500 ARMLS
• 2014-02-21 Listed $79,000 ARMLS
• 2003-08-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2001-01-26 Sold (Public Records) $57,000 Public Records
• 2000-10-17 Listed $57,900 ARMLS
• 1991-11-18 Sold (Public Records) $24,000 Public Records
• 1983-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $7,795,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $579 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.