1400 Meredith Ave #78 · Gustine, CA 95322

$94,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · Manufactured · 71 Days on market

Built 2002 $90/sqft · 88% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Very nice clean 55+ park. The mobile is built in 2002 with sheet rock walls, inside laundry room with cabinets, 2 bedroom 2 bath, dual pane windows. Nice big front deck. Mobile feels like a home in the Green Acres Mobile Ranch. Nice pool, clubhouse, picnic, BBQ, and car wash area. Sellers moving out of area.

Key facts

• Bbq area
• Pool
• Big front deck

Tags

• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM
• DUAL PANE WINDOWS
• BIG FRONT DECK
• POOL
• CLUBHOUSE PICNIC
• BBQ AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $734 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#321 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Gustine Unified (rural): math 17% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #1,180 of 1,400 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 459 units permitted in Merced County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $656 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Merced County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,206 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.72% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.16%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $50,593
• List price: $94,900
• Delta: 87.57%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1400 Meredith Ave #58	0.04mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-5%)	3mo	$38,000	$38	87
1400 Meredith Ave #25	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+8%)	2mo	$89,999	$79	84
1400 Meredith Ave #76	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-2%)	14mo	$95,000	$91	82
1400 Meredith Ave #95	0.06mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	1mo	$47,000	$49	81
1400 Meredith Ave #73	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,040 (-2%)	22mo	$90,000	$87	78
1400 Meredith Ave #50	0.07mi	2/2.0	960 (-9%)	9mo	$60,000	$63	74
1400 Meredith Ave #3	0.07mi	2/1.0	945 (-10%)	6mo	$55,000	$58	70

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $31,345
• Equity at exit: $14,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $87,354
• Equity at exit: $8,205

Cash invested: $26,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95322

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,631 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $208/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $734

Break-even live

Break-even rent $702

Max offer price $94,900

Occupancy floor 50%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,725
• Closing costs: $2,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1407 South Ave Unit 1407 Gustine, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	12d	1	0.36mi
1310 Olson Dr Apt E Gustine, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	12d	1	0.36mi
1535 South Ave Apt B Gustine, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$1,200	$1.33	12d	1	0.38mi
790 Sycamore Ave Gustine, CA	2.0	1.0	1089	$1,750	$1.61	7d	1	0.39mi
775 Odilia Ct Gustine, CA	2.0	2.0	970	$1,850	$1.91	12d	1	0.47mi
750 Odilia Ct Gustine, CA	2.0	2.5	1212	$1,850	$1.53	12d	1	0.49mi
772 5th Ave Gustine, CA	2.0	1.0	1150	$1,700	$1.48	12d	1	0.56mi
407 6th St Gustine, CA	2.0	2.0	950	$1,900	$2.00	14d	1	0.71mi
1573 Via del Pettoruto Gustine, CA	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,200	$1.77	12d	1	0.73mi
212 2nd St Gustine, CA	3.0	2.0	1109	$1,800	$1.62	2d	1	1.08mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $94,900 Active 71 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $94,900 Active 70 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $94,900 Active 69 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $94,900 Active 68 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 66 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 62 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,900 Active 61 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,900 Active 60 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,900 Active 56 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,900 Active 55 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 54 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 53 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $208 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $721 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$514/yr (+$43/mo · 247.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,316
• − Property taxes: −$208
• − Insurance: −$474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,566
• − Management: −$1,566
• − Depreciation: −$2,761
• Taxable income: $7,684
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,844
• After-tax cash flow: $6,966/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gustine Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616323
• Math proficiency: 17% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,825
• Composite: 23.99/100
• National rank: #13180
• State rank: #1180 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Gustine

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #321
• US rank: #10803

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment D Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gustine, CA
• Population (ZIP): 9,013

Population outlook (Merced County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 285,501 people
• By 2030: 293,437 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 308,808 · +8.2%
• By 2050: 321,011 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 338,497 · +18.6%
• By 2100: 330,493 · +15.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% White 30% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 65%
• Common ancestry: Russian 14% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Indo-European 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Merced

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.5% · R 50.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -4.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.4 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+7.9 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -119.43%
• Current HPI: 264.2504
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-6.4%/yr

Latest (2020): $208 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.