515 S La Canada Dr Unit C · Green Valley, AZ 85614

$89,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 588 sqft · Condo · 58 Days on market

Built 1964 Average condition $415/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Experience the ease of low-maintenance living at Green Valley Villas East, where all major maintenance items are covered by the HOA -- giving you more time to enjoy everything this beautiful community has to offer. This unit includes a full-size washer and dryer -- no trips to the laundromat required. Inside, you'll also find a thoughtfully refreshed kitchen featuring updated cabinetry and full-size appliances, perfect for everyday cooking and entertaining. Authentic Saltillo tile flows throughout the home, lending a warm, true Southwest aesthetic that is both timeless and easy to maintain. Step outside and take advantage of both a covered front and rear patio, ideal for relaxing mornings,

Key facts

• Saltillo tile
• Full-size appliances
• Updated cabinetry

Tags

• FULL-SIZE WASHER AND DRYER
• REFRESHED KITCHEN
• UPDATED CABINETRY
• FULL-SIZE APPLIANCES
• SALTILLO TILE
• COVERED FRONT AND REAR PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community amenities: pool, spa, racquetball, fitness center, lighted courts, recreation center, paved streets, sidewalks, and street lights
• HOA & community: Part of Green Valley East association; Monthly HOA fee; HOA amenities include laundry, pool, and spa/hot tub; HOA fee covers air conditioning/heating, blanket insurance policy, common area maintenance, exterior maintenance of unit, pest control, roof repair, sewer, street maintenance, and water; Road maintenance responsibility handled by HOA

Exterior

• Utilities: Water from a water company; Sewer connected; Phone service connected
• Home design: Condominium; Single-level; Faces west
• Construction: Burnt adobe and stucco construction; Tile and built-up roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Slab patio; Paver surfaces; Masonry fencing; East/West exposure; Paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas range; Microwave
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Gas range; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet; Outdoor laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $89k. Condition is rated average.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($995/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 4.5% in Green Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#165 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Continental Elementary District (4416) (rural): math 35% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #72 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Continental Elementary School (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #418 of 1,109 statewide, top 38%, 639 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 411 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $615 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.6% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,330 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.99%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-5,083
• Equity at exit: $13,270

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $19,863
• Equity at exit: $7,695

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85614

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 411
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,409 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$111 /mo · $1,335/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$415
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$296
• Net cashflow: $83

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,304

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
478 Paseo Madera Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,250	$2.13	24d	1	0.02mi
466 Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,100	$1.58	17d	1	0.03mi
466 S Paseo Madera Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$2,300	$3.30	17d	1	0.04mi
430 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,025	$1.47	15d	1	0.14mi
321 S Paseo Madera Unit A Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,250	$1.80	24d	1	0.19mi
90 W Camino Manzana Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	24d	1	0.19mi
303 S Paseo Lobo Green Valley, AZ	2.0	1.0	696	$1,000	$1.44	24d	1	0.21mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	2d	1	0.27mi
262 S Paseo Cerro Unit B Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,200	$2.04	24d	1	0.27mi
133 S Paseo Pena Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,095	$1.86	2d	1	0.36mi
132 S Paseo Sarta Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$2,000	$3.40	2d	1	0.41mi
174 S Paseo Tierra Green Valley, AZ	1.0	1.0	588	$1,100	$1.87	2d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $415 · $4,980/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,000 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,000 Active 56 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,000 Active 55 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricestatus $89,000 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-05-09
   status Pending
7. 2026-05-09
   historical Active Contingent
8. 2026-04-25
   price $91,000
9. 2026-04-16
   status Active
10. 2026-04-12
    historical Active Contingent
11. 2026-04-03
    price $93,000
12. 2026-03-18
    price $95,500
13. 2026-03-17
    listed $98,000 Active
14. 2026-02-11
    historical
15. 2025-12-26
    price $109,000
16. 2025-09-30
    price $114,000
17. 2025-08-29
    listed $118,000 Active
18. 2020-03-20
    historical
19. 2020-03-04
    listed $95,000 Active
20. 2019-01-31
    status Pending
21. 2019-01-31
    soldstatus $68,100 Closed
22. 2019-01-10
    historical Active Contingent
23. 2019-01-08
    listed $68,000 Active
24. 2010-02-23
    historical
25. 2009-06-23
    listed $67,900
26. 2005-02-15
    soldstatus $51,000
27. 2004-11-30
    listed $52,900
28. 2004-08-23
    soldstatus $37,500
29. 2004-08-02
    listed $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$1,335
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,352
• − Management: −$1,352
• − HOA: −$4,980
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable loss: −$133
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$32
• After-tax cash flow: $1,027/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Average 55/100 Cosmetic rehab

This unit is in average condition with cosmetic updates needed to enhance its curb appeal and resale value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and increases value
• Both Replace flooring — Freshens the space and improves resale value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both Replace windows — Improves energy efficiency and aesthetics ↑
• Both Update kitchen cabinets — Modernizes the space and increases value ↑
• Both Replace flooring — Freshens the space and improves resale value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Continental Elementary District (4416)
• NCES district ID: 0402250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,475
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5565
• State rank: #72 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Green Valley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #165
• US rank: #18276

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Valley, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 25,381
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 25,381
• Household income: $64,879
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 860.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% German/W. Germanic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -231.05%
• Current HPI: 250.5933
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.60%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+139.5% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2026-05-09 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $91,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-12 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $93,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $95,500 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-17 Listed $98,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-11 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-26 Price Changed $109,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $114,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-29 Listed $118,000 MLSSAZ
• 2020-03-20 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2020-03-04 Listed $95,000 MLSSAZ
• 2019-01-31 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2019-01-31 Sold (MLS) $68,100 MLSSAZ
• 2019-01-10 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2019-01-08 Listed $68,000 MLSSAZ
• 2010-02-23 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2009-06-23 Listed $67,900 MLSSAZ
• 2005-02-15 Sold (MLS) $51,000 MLSSAZ
• 2004-11-30 Listed $52,900 MLSSAZ
• 2004-08-23 Sold (MLS) $37,500 MLSSAZ
• 2004-08-02 Listed $38,000 MLSSAZ