113 Mill Brook Rd · Fayston, VT 05673

$435,000

5 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1900 1.07 ac lot $252/sqft · 39% below area Est $718k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Strategically situated on 1.03 acres, this gorgeous 4 bedroom, 2 bath property offers year-round recreation and small-town charm. Modern upgrades include new 200amp electrical service, new well pump, updated water lines, new electrics throughout, LED lighting, plumbing, bathroom fixtures, windows, insulation, sheetrock, and a new roof. Just minutes from Waitsfield Village and conveniently located near both Mad River Glen and Sugarbush, you will enjoy easy access to hiking, biking, and skiing, with proximity to GMVS Ski Academy. Summer fun awaits at nearby swimming holes and golf courses. The Waitsfield Farmer’s Market, shops, and dining are all within walking distance, creating the perfect blend of convenience and community. The 40' x 20' two-story barn is brimming with potential. It could serve as a workshop, studio, event space, or be reimagined into a guesthouse, rental property, or unique live/work space. The attached storage annex can be reclaimed as living space, but will require full renovation of the footprint of that addition. The property includes mature apple trees, established shrubs, and perennials creating a true Vermont country landscape. Come put the finishing touches on the renovation of this classic gem. .. offered "as-is. "

Key facts

• New well pump
• Updated water lines
• Led lighting

Tags

• 1.03 ACRES
• NEW 200AMP ELECTRICAL SERVICE
• NEW WELL PUMP
• UPDATED WATER LINES
• NEW ELECTRICS THROUGHOUT
• LED LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $320 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $399k (8.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $383k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 21 active listings in the ZIP; 185 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Washington County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $122k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $262k; list at $435k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $382,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.70%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $718,230
• List price: $435,000
• Delta: -39.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $257,275
• Equity at exit: $391,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $741,490
• Equity at exit: $845,109

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05673

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 21
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,991 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,771/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$838
• Net cashflow: $320

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,585

Max offer price $435,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $567	-5% $444	+0% $320	+5% $197	+10% $74
Rent	-10% $5	-5% $163	+0% $320	+5% $478	+10% $636
Rate	-1.0pp $540	-0.5pp $431	base $320	+0.5pp $208	+1.0pp $93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $435,000 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $435,000 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $435,000 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $435,000 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $435,000 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $435,000 Active 145 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $435,000 Active 143 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $435,000 Active 142 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $435,000 Active 139 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $435,000 Active 138 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $435,000 Active 137 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $435,000 Active 136 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    price $435,000 Active 133 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $495,000 Active 133 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $495,000 Active 132 DOM
17. 2026-02-05
    price $495,000 1278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1278 chars)

    Strategically situated on 1.03 acres, this gorgeous 4 bedroom, 2 bath property offers year-round recreation and small-town charm. Modern upgrades include new 200amp electrical service, new well pump, updated water lines, new electrics throughout, LED lighting, plumbing, bathroom fixtures, windows, insulation, sheetrock, and a new roof. Just minutes from Waitsfield Village and conveniently located near both Mad River Glen and Sugarbush, you will enjoy easy access to hiking, biking, and skiing, with proximity to GMVS Ski Academy. Summer fun awaits at nearby swimming holes and golf courses. The Waitsfield Farmer’s Market, shops, and dining are all within walking distance, creating the perfect blend of convenience and community. The 40' x 20' two-story barn is brimming with potential. It could serve as a workshop, studio, event space, or be reimagined into a guesthouse, rental property, or unique live/work space. The attached storage annex can be reclaimed as living space, but will require full renovation of the footprint of that addition. The property includes mature apple trees, established shrubs, and perennials creating a true Vermont country landscape. Come put the finishing touches on the renovation of this classic gem. .. offered "as-is. "

18. 2026-01-18
    listed $540,000 Active 1278-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1278 chars)

    Strategically situated on 1.03 acres, this gorgeous 4 bedroom, 2 bath property offers year-round recreation and small-town charm. Modern upgrades include new 200amp electrical service, new well pump, updated water lines, new electrics throughout, LED lighting, plumbing, bathroom fixtures, windows, insulation, sheetrock, and a new roof. Just minutes from Waitsfield Village and conveniently located near both Mad River Glen and Sugarbush, you will enjoy easy access to hiking, biking, and skiing, with proximity to GMVS Ski Academy. Summer fun awaits at nearby swimming holes and golf courses. The Waitsfield Farmer’s Market, shops, and dining are all within walking distance, creating the perfect blend of convenience and community. The 40' x 20' two-story barn is brimming with potential. It could serve as a workshop, studio, event space, or be reimagined into a guesthouse, rental property, or unique live/work space. The attached storage annex can be reclaimed as living space, but will require full renovation of the footprint of that addition. The property includes mature apple trees, established shrubs, and perennials creating a true Vermont country landscape. Come put the finishing touches on the renovation of this classic gem. .. offered "as-is. "

19. 2022-09-22
    soldstatus $262,381
20. 2019-01-31
    soldstatus $27,625
21. 2011-11-02
    soldstatus $47,500
22. 2000-02-26
    soldstatus $64,000
23. 2000-01-20
    soldstatus $37,490
24. 1998-11-24
    soldstatus $193,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,771 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,018 · $501/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,247/yr (+$187/mo · 59.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥89°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,889
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$3,771
• − Insurance: −$2,842
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,831
• − Management: −$3,831
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$3,407
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$818
• After-tax cash flow: $4,663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Fayston

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,465

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,608 people
• By 2030: 54,731 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 50,227 · -11.3%
• By 2050: 45,893 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 36,818 · -35.0%
• By 2100: 28,143 · -50.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Lithuanian 4% Danish 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.4) · D 70.0% · R 26.6% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.4pp toward D · 2008: 41.0pp · 2024: 43.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.4 2020: D+46.1 2016: D+37.0 2012: D+42.2 2008: D+41.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 49.14%
• Current HPI: 380.3453
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+155.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $495,000 PrimeMLS
• 2026-01-18 Listed $540,000 PrimeMLS
• 2022-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $262,381 Public Records
• 2019-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $27,625 Public Records
• 2011-11-02 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2000-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 2000-01-20 Sold (Public Records) $37,490 Public Records
• 1998-11-24 Sold (Public Records) $193,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,771 · +13.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.