4625 Lake Shore Dr · Bolton Landing, NY 12814

$474,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,332 sqft · Other public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1900 0.46 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors a rare opportunity to own multiple homes just minutes from beautiful downtown Bolton Landing. Exceptional potential for rental income, vacation properties, or a family compound in one of the Adirondacks most desirable locations. Enjoy being just minutes from beautiful beaches and the crystal-clear waters of Lake George, with just a short drive to Gore Mountain. These homes offer year-round fun, from summer boating and hiking to winter skiing and snowmobiling.

Key facts

• Vacation properties
• Crystal-clear waters
• Year-round fun

Tags

• RENTAL INCOME
• VACATION PROPERTIES
• DESIRABLE LOCATIONS
• BEAUTIFUL BEACHES
• CRYSTAL-CLEAR WATERS
• YEAR-ROUND FUN

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Two-unit property

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Space for 4 vehicles total
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Duplex; 1,332 living area; Block foundation; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation; Vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Front porch

Interior

• Bedrooms: Unit 1: 2 bedrooms (all on 1st level); Unit 2: 2 bedrooms (all on 1st level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: Each unit has 1 full bathroom (both on 1st level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Zoned heating; Wood stove heating
• Interior features: Carpet and laminate flooring; Full basement; Wood burning stove / fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $475k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($59k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($10k rent vs $475k).
• Recommended offer: $461k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 0.4% in Bolton Landing — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,015 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: schools A+; Watch: crime D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Bolton Central School District (rural): math 75% / reading 80% proficiency, ranked #110 of 755 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $47k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $133k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$82k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($461k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $460,653 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.73%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 59.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.32×
• Total profit: $574,255
• Equity at exit: $427,828

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.7%
• Equity multiple: 11.85×
• Total profit: $1,442,734
• Equity at exit: $922,626

Cash invested: $132,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12814

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $10,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,490
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,065/yr
• Insurance: −$198
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,100
• Net cashflow: $4,956

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,726

Max offer price $474,900

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $118,725
• Closing costs: $14,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Sunrise Ln Lake George, NY	3.0	2.0	1344	$10,000	$7.44	43d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $474,900 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $474,900 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $474,900 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $474,900 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $489,900 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $489,900 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $489,900 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $489,900 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $489,900 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $489,900 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $489,900 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $489,900 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $489,900 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $489,900 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $489,900 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    listed $489,900 Active 488-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,065 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,545 · $462/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,480/yr (+$207/mo · 80.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $120,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,602
• − Property taxes: −$3,065
• − Insurance: −$2,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$9,600
• − Management: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$13,815
• Taxable income: $54,944
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$13,186
• After-tax cash flow: $46,289/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bolton Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605010
• Math proficiency: 75% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 80% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,568
• Composite: 67.0/100
• National rank: #863
• State rank: #110 of 755 in NY

Livability — Bolton Landing

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1015
• US rank: #19844

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime D+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,145

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 8% Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.75%
• Current HPI: 550.304
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-3.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Price Changed $474,900 Global MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $489,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,065 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.