Plan 1772 Modeled Plan · San Antonio, TX 78112

$201,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,772 sqft · SingleFamily · 307 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 1% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Front porch
• Powder bath

Tags

• POWDER BATH
• CORNER KITCHEN PANTRY
• SMART THERMOSTAT
• WATERSENSE LABELED FAUCETS
• FRONT PORCH
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $201,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $249,815.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $202k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (0.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (12.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in San Antonio — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#31 in TX, #1,616 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F.
• East Central ISD (rural): math 16% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #758 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Harmony El (math 21% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 684 students, 75% FRL); East Central Heritage Middle (math 11% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 1,120 students, 44% FRL); East Central H S (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 3,252 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 57% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 451 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-413 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,661 (12.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.67%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,815
• List price: $201,995
• Delta: -19.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5022 Kayak Cv	0.07mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+0%)	7mo	$225,563	$127	90
5014 Kayak Cv	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,780 (+0%)	14mo	$259,257	$146	85
14247 Calaveras Cv	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,908 (+8%)	5mo	$239,036	$125	80
14458 Ribbon Tail	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,908 (+8%)	3mo	$224,093	$117	71
14447 Stinger Hook	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,908 (+8%)	7mo	$227,216	$119	68
14411 Gopher Cv	0.29mi	3/2.5	1,908 (+8%)	7mo	$216,378	$113	68
14319 Calaveras Cv	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-10%)	13mo	$209,978	$131	66
14315 Calaveras Cv	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-10%)	15mo	$232,644	$145	65
5230 Big Oak Run	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,908 (+8%)	7mo	$229,239	$120	64
14446 Stinger Hook	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-10%)	5mo	$224,482	$140	64
5202 Big Oak Run	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,604 (-10%)	4mo	$222,386	$139	63
14435 Stinger Hook	0.27mi	3/4.5	1,908 (+8%)	7mo	$234,245	$123	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-30,283
• Equity at exit: $70,482

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-22,784
• Equity at exit: $83,098

Cash invested: $69,948 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78112

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,310
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,747/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,185

Max offer price $201,949

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-158	-5% $-244	+0% $-331	+5% $-417	+10% $-503
Rent	-10% $-470	-5% $-401	+0% $-331	+5% $-261	+10% $-191
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-267	base $-331	+0.5pp $-396	+1.0pp $-461

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,454
• Closing costs: $7,494
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14319 Breakline Way Elmendorf, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,200	$1.05	25d	1	0.09mi
14458 Ribbon Tail Elmendorf, TX	3.0	2.5	1908	$1,790	$0.94	25d	1	0.26mi
13319 Winemaker Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1931	$1,945	$1.01	25d	1	0.77mi
13215 Winemaker Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1625	$1,429	$0.88	45d	1	0.79mi
13203 Winemaker Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1486	$1,850	$1.24	25d	1	0.79mi
13338 Stetson Trl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1520	$1,369	$0.90	45d	1	0.80mi
13127 Winemaker Dr San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2244	$2,400	$1.07	45d	1	0.81mi
10921 Presa Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1360	$1,450	$1.07	45d	1	0.86mi
4538 Wrangler Run San Antonio, TX	4.0	3.0	2239	$1,589	$0.71	6d	1	0.86mi
4523 Stetson Run San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1645	$1,650	$1.00	45d	1	0.86mi
4511 Southton Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1653	$1,650	$1.00	21d	1	0.89mi
14007 Southton Basin San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,465	$0.99	45d	1	0.91mi
14023 Southton Basin San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,300	$0.88	25d	1	0.93mi
4343 Open Water San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,595	$1.10	45d	1	0.95mi
4411 Southton Way San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	2242	$1,796	$0.80	14d	1	0.96mi
4418 Wrangler Vw San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,550	$0.97	25d	1	1.01mi
4310 Rapids Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,600	$1.00	14d	1	1.03mi
4310 Rapids Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,600	$0.98	0d	1	1.03mi
4231 Southton Mere San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,795	$0.92	4d	1	1.04mi
4203 Southton Mere San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1606	$1,600	$1.00	0d	1	1.08mi
13831 Weir Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$1,795	$0.92	0d	1	1.11mi
13827 Weir Pl San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1627	$1,645	$1.01	0d	1	1.11mi
4284 Thalweg Way San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.5	1532	$1,475	$0.96	45d	1	1.11mi
4206 Osmosis Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1440	$1,450	$1.01	23d	1	1.14mi
14318 Calaveras Crk San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1492	$1,525	$1.02	0d	1	1.16mi
4136 Cove Fls San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,500	$1.03	0d	1	1.17mi
4110 Cross Current San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	3d	1	1.22mi
4105 Water Fall Cv San Antonio, TX	4.0	2.0	1492	$1,525	$1.02	0d	1	1.25mi
4150 Southton Tarn San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,100	$0.89	25d	1	1.25mi
4138 Southton Tarn San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,550	$1.07	0d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $201,995 Active 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $201,995 Active 304 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $201,995 Active 303 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $201,995 Active 302 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $201,995 Active 301 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $201,995 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $201,995 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $201,995 Active 294 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $201,995 Active 293 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $201,995 Active 290 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $201,995 Active 289 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $201,995 Active 288 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $201,995 Active 287 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $201,995 Active 286 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    price $201,995 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

16. 2026-04-06
    price $211,995 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

17. 2026-02-27
    price $209,995 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

18. 2026-01-24
    price $202,995 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

19. 2025-10-14
    price $212,995 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

20. 2025-09-29
    price $208,995 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

21. 2025-09-03
    price $206,995 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

22. 2025-08-18
    listed $204,995 Active 465-char remark

    Show marketing remark (465 chars)

    * Powder bath * Corner kitchen pantry * Dedicated coat and linen closets * Stainless steel kitchen appliances * Smart thermostat * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Front porch * Spacious great room * Loft * Upstairs laundry room * Expansive primary suite * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Playground * Convenient to downtown * Commuter-friendly location * Outdoor recreation nearby * Biking trails nearby * Hiking trails nearby

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,994
• − Property taxes: −$3,747
• − Insurance: −$1,249
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$7,267
• Taxable loss: −$8,450
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,028
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,942/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in San Antonio, TX is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a good ROI with updates that can significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort
• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and convenience
• Both Smart lighting system — Saves energy and enhances ambiance
• Both Smart home entertainment system — Enhances entertainment and comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Smart home security system — Enhances safety and convenience ↑
• Both Smart lighting system — Saves energy and enhances ambiance ↑
• Both Smart home entertainment system — Enhances entertainment and comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Central ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817850
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $53,941
• Composite: 18.67/100
• National rank: #8887
• State rank: #758 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Antonio

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #1616

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Antonio, TX
• City population: 1,806,925
• Population (ZIP): 9,959

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% Two or more races 39% White 24% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 42% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 276.3302
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $201,995 Zillow
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $211,995 Zillow
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $209,995 Zillow
• 2026-01-24 Price Changed $202,995 Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $212,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-29 Price Changed $208,995 Zillow
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $206,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-18 Listed $204,995 Zillow