1220 Calle Rafael · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$299,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,370 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 2006 0.84 ac lot $126/sqft · 7% below area Est $323k · 7% under ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Breathtaking views this Home has it all ! From privacy to open spaces with a fire place to make the best smores is a house to fall in love with. Tile throughout the house a spacious principal bedroom, walk in closet and spaces worthy of a King....don't wait before is to late put an offer today.

Key facts

• Breathtaking views
• Fire place
• Walk in closet

Tags

• BREATHTAKING VIEWS
• FIRE PLACE
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-382 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (36.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $189k (36.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Calabasas School (math 11% / reading 25%, grade F, #796 of 1,109 statewide, top 72%, 1,006 students, 81% FRL); Coatimundi Middle School (math 16% / reading 32%, grade F, #109 of 218 statewide, top 51%, 473 students, 69% FRL); Rio Rico High School (math 13% / reading 21%, grade F, #252 of 381 statewide, top 67%, 1,414 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 414 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$51k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $188,577 (36.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.48%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $322,658
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -7.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1181 Calle Chaparral	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,383 (+0%)	10mo	$395,000	$166	78
1303 Calle Tubatana	0.46mi	3/2.0	2,416 (+2%)	16mo	$365,000	$151	60
520 Camino Hombre De Oro --	0.61mi	3/2.5	2,160 (-9%)	5mo	$449,000	$208	53
1147 Pedro Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	2,100 (-11%)	5mo	$268,000	$128	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $138,397
• Equity at exit: $269,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.09×
• Total profit: $426,528
• Equity at exit: $580,891

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,155/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-382

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,370

Max offer price $231,446

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-213	-5% $-298	+0% $-382	+5% $-467	+10% $-552
Rent	-10% $-531	-5% $-457	+0% $-382	+5% $-308	+10% $-233
Rate	-1.0pp $-232	-0.5pp $-306	base $-382	+0.5pp $-460	+1.0pp $-539

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1233 Paseo Chubasco Rio Rico, AZ	4.0	2.0	1705	$1,700	$1.00	46d	1	0.80mi
401 Via Capri Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	2177	$1,950	$0.90	22d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 87 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 86 DOM
17. 2026-04-30
    price $299,000 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    Breathtaking views this Home has it all ! From privacy to open spaces with a fire place to make the best smores is a house to fall in love with. Tile throughout the house a spacious principal bedroom, walk in closet and spaces worthy of a King....don't wait before is to late put an offer today.

18. 2026-03-06
    listed $325,000 Active 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    Breathtaking views this Home has it all ! From privacy to open spaces with a fire place to make the best smores is a house to fall in love with. Tile throughout the house a spacious principal bedroom, walk in closet and spaces worthy of a King....don't wait before is to late put an offer today.

19. 2026-03-01
    historical
20. 2026-02-25
    price $328,000
21. 2025-12-03
    price $329,000
22. 2025-09-24
    price $340,000
23. 2025-09-10
    price $345,000
24. 2025-09-10
    status Active
25. 2025-09-07
    historical
26. 2025-09-01
    status Active
27. 2025-09-01
    historical
28. 2025-06-30
    price $360,000
29. 2025-05-06
    price $365,000
30. 2025-01-19
    listed $375,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,155 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,155 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$2,155
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$10,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,421
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-20.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $299,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-06 Listed $325,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-25 Price Changed $328,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $329,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $340,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $345,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-10 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-07 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-01 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-01 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
• 2025-06-30 Price Changed $360,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-06 Price Changed $365,000 MLSSAZ
• 2025-01-19 Listed $375,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,155 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.