10902 Bonfire Trl · Kendleton, TX 77417

$270,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,794 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2023 Excellent condition 7,522 sqft lot $151/sqft · 17% below area Est $327k · 17% under $133/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully maintained and truly move-in ready, this 4-bedroom, 2-bath single-story home in the growing community of Emberly offers the upgrades, space, and convenience today’s buyers are searching for. Built in 2023, this home features an open-concept design with durable vinyl plank flooring, granite countertops, oversized island, custom backsplash, pendant lighting, LED lighting, matte black fixtures, and energy-efficient stainless steel appliances. The spacious primary suite includes dual sinks and a large walk-in closet, while the covered patio and oversized backyard with sprinkler system create the perfect setting for relaxing or entertaining. Refrigerator included! Why wait on n

Key facts

• Open-concept design
• Custom backsplash
• Pendant lighting

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT DESIGN
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED ISLAND
• CUSTOM BACKSPLASH
• PENDANT LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (6.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $270k).
• Recommended offer: $253k (6.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (4.2% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 11639% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price.

Recommended offer $252,641 (6.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,129
• List price: $270,000
• Delta: -15.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1031 Rosewood Trl	0.19mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-1%)	3mo	$299,900	$169	87
10735 Dogwood Sky Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-1%)	0mo	$289,990	$163	86
10803 Hickory Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-1%)	2mo	$309,900	$174	83
719 Mockingbird Psge	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,863 (+4%)	2mo	$335,490	$180	79
10606 Crimson Trce	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,826 (+2%)	2mo	$265,000	$145	70
1066 Blue Stone Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5	1,833 (+2%)	3mo	$326,990	$178	66
10710 Sage Bend Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,595 (-11%)	1mo	$274,990	$172	62
1062 Blue Stone Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,655 (-8%)	2mo	$317,990	$192	60
10414 Rocky Trl	0.54mi	4/2.5	1,951 (+9%)	3mo	$290,990	$149	56
1138 Blue Stone Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5	1,951 (+9%)	3mo	$289,990	$149	52
1031 Blue Stone Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-12%)	2mo	$307,990	$196	47
1023 Blue Stone Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,572 (-12%)	3mo	$309,990	$197	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.58×
• Total profit: $43,506
• Equity at exit: $139,319

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $144,448
• Equity at exit: $229,825

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77417

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$779 /mo · $9,350/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$623
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,089

Max offer price $252,641

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10730 Sky Creek Ln Beasley, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1869	$2,965	$1.59	1d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $270,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $270,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $270,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $270,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $270,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $270,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $270,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $270,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $270,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $270,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $270,000 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $270,000 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $270,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    listed $2,300
15. 2026-05-14
    historical $2,300
16. 2026-05-13
    historical
17. 2026-03-25
    listed $2,300
18. 2026-03-25
    historical $2,300
19. 2026-03-14
    listed $2,300
20. 2026-03-14
    historical $2,300
21. 2026-02-10
    listed $275,000 Active
22. 2026-01-15
    historical
23. 2026-01-01
    listed $2,300
24. 2026-01-01
    historical $2,300
25. 2025-12-21
    historical $2,300
26. 2025-12-18
    listed $2,300
27. 2025-11-27
    listed $2,300
28. 2025-11-27
    historical $2,300
29. 2025-11-14
    listed $2,300
30. 2025-11-13
    listed $270,000 Active
31. 2024-10-31
    soldstatus Sold
32. 2024-09-07
    status Pending
33. 2024-09-05
    status Active
34. 2024-04-23
    status Pending
35. 2023-09-29
    listed $308,455 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,350 · $779/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,350 · $779/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,580
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$9,350
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,846
• − Management: −$2,846
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$5,388
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,293
• After-tax cash flow: $114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This move-in ready, single-story home in Emberly offers a beautiful, well-maintained interior and exterior, with no visible repairs or maintenance needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh look
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Interior paint touch-ups — Maintains a fresh look ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,232

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 67% Two or more races 49% White 22% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 54%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.15%
• Current HPI: 337.8236
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.3% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed for Rent $2,300 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-05-14 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Rental Removed $2,300 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-14 Listed for Rent $2,300 SHOWMOJO
• 2026-03-14 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Rental Removed $2,300 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-12-21 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-11-27 Listed for Rent $2,300 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-11-27 Rental Removed $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-11-14 Listed for Rent $2,300 HARMLS
• 2025-11-13 Listed $270,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-09-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-04-23 Pending — HARMLS
• 2023-09-29 Listed $308,455 HARMLS