190 Vintage Cir #202 · Vineyards, FL 34119

$465,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,774 sqft · Condo public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1998 $945/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the remarkable Vineyards! Carriage homes in this community are rarely available. This is a wonderful opportunity for you to own an immaculate 3 bedroom 2 bathroom 1 car garage Lakefront Carriage Home that is located in the “Concord at the Vineyards Community”. Come relax and enjoy the spectacular lake & fountain view on the very spacious screened in lanai. This bright beautiful home offers a great split floorplan with high celings throughout the home. There is plenty of storage & all bedrooms have large walk in closets. The list of recent updates includes renovated kitchen with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, new carpet, tile, shower, plantation shutters, ceiling fans, front door, AC compressor unit, paint, fixtures and hardware. All furnishings are negotiable. There is a Pool and Fitness area for Concord residence plus The Vineyards Country Club offers varying levels of membership, including full golf, sports, lifestyle, social and young professional memberships that include many differnt types of amemties. All shopping, restuarants, golf, boating, beaches and hospital are minutes away. Dont miss out on this rare Gem. It won't last long!

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Walk-in closets
• Granite countertops

Tags

• LAKE AND FOUNTAIN VIEWS
• LARGE SCREENED-IN LANAI
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual recurring fees reported; Total one-time fees reported
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly master HOA fee; Quarterly condo fee; HOA covers lawn/land maintenance; Condo management; Community amenities include: clubhouses, community pool and spa/hot tub, exercise/fitness center (attended), full service spa, tennis courts, pickleball, bocce court, putting green, golf course (public), private beach pavilion, restaurant, cabana, business center, library, dog park, play area, sidewalks and streetlights, bike and jog path, bike storage, underground utilities

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage; Paved driveway with additional 2+ parking spaces; Guest parking
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise building (1–3 stories); Carriage/coach style; corner end-unit; Rear exposure facing east; Located in The Vineyards development
• Construction: Built in 1998; Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Single-hung windows
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Water display/feature; Screened lanai/porch; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms with a split bedroom floor plan
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Carpet flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and separate tub and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: French doors; High-speed internet available; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Partially furnished; Five ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry in residence; Automatic garage door opener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $465k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-72 ($-867/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $452k (2.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $465k).
• Recommended offer: $409k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Vineyards Elementary School (math 79% / reading 75%, grade A, #170 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 845 students, 27% FRL); Oakridge Middle School (math 75% / reading 67%, grade A, #59 of 571 statewide, top 11%, 1,183 students, 26% FRL); Gulf Coast High School (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,447 students, 20% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 55% district-wide (31 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Collier average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 590 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,803/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($113k/yr) (locally 741% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $409,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
9. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
10. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
11. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
12. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
13. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.67%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-93,552
• Equity at exit: $69,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-139,856
• Equity at exit: $40,205

Cash invested: $130,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34119

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 590
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,803 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,468/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$945
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,009
• Net cashflow: $-72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,894

Max offer price $452,238

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $191	-5% $59	+0% $-72	+5% $-204	+10% $-335
Rent	-10% $-452	-5% $-262	+0% $-72	+5% $117	+10% $307
Rate	-1.0pp $162	-0.5pp $46	base $-72	+0.5pp $-193	+1.0pp $-315

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,250
• Closing costs: $13,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 Vintage Cir Unit C401 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$6,500	$4.28	15d	1	0.02mi
200 Vintage Cir Unit D304 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,800	$1.88	15d	1	0.03mi
172 Vintage Cir #202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$5,195	$2.93	15d	1	0.06mi
230 Vintage Cir Unit A-404 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1290	$5,000	$3.88	15d	1	0.08mi
155 Vintage Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$5,000	$3.33	15d	1	0.08mi
224 Via Perignon Unit 5-4 Naples, FL	2.0	2.5	2085	$6,000	$2.88	23d	1	0.15mi
89 Silver Oaks Cir #5103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1373	$2,800	$2.04	23d	1	0.16mi
106 Siena Way #1508 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	25d	1	0.18mi
57 Silver Oaks Cir #13103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1373	$5,000	$3.64	23d	1	0.20mi
104 Siena Way #1407 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1450	$7,000	$4.83	25d	1	0.21mi
103 Tuscana Ct #1107 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1412	$5,000	$3.54	25d	1	0.22mi
102 Tuscana Ct #901 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1631	$2,300	$1.41	25d	1	0.22mi
271 Perignon Pl Unit 16-1 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1449	$2,700	$1.86	25d	1	0.22mi
56 Silver Oaks Cir Unit 102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1373	$4,500	$3.28	15d	1	0.22mi
152 Napa Ridge Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1775	$7,000	$3.94	25d	1	0.24mi
6025 Chardonnay Ln Unit 1Unit 102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,195	$1.55	25d	1	0.35mi
6260 Bellerive Ave #402 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1708	$7,000	$4.10	23d	1	0.43mi
5950 Almaden Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1762	$6,500	$3.69	25d	1	0.43mi
116 Fountain Cir Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1561	$4,500	$2.88	25d	1	0.47mi
6115 Reserve Cir #2004 Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2337	$7,000	$3.00	23d	1	0.58mi
515 Laguna Royale Blvd #102 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,995	$1.58	15d	1	0.80mi
1205 Reserve Way #302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$2,300	$1.86	15d	1	0.83mi
575 El Camino Real Unit 6 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2050	$3,700	$1.80	15d	1	0.91mi
1303 Verde Dr Unit 1603 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1877	$2,500	$1.33	15d	1	0.94mi
580 El Camino Real #3805 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1772	$13,500	$7.62	25d	1	0.95mi
1299 Verde Dr Unit 1503 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$4,200	$2.41	15d	1	0.96mi
1105 Reserve Ct #307 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1239	$1,995	$1.61	15d	1	0.98mi
1256 Carpazi Ct Unit 502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	15d	1	1.10mi
1256 Carpazi Ct #502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1744	$2,495	$1.43	25d	1	1.10mi
734 Regency Reserve Cir #2701 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2058	$7,900	$3.84	25d	1	1.19mi
730 Regency Reserve Cir #2802 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2050	$8,000	$3.90	25d	1	1.19mi
6941 Hunters Rd Naples, FL	4.0	2.0	1866	$7,500	$4.02	25d	1	1.20mi
713 Regency Reserve Cir #5902 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2050	$7,200	$3.51	25d	1	1.28mi
713 Regency Reserve Cir #5901 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	2050	$3,295	$1.61	15d	1	1.28mi
709 Regency Reserve Cir #6003 Naples, FL	3.0	3.5	2494	$7,900	$3.17	25d	1	1.28mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	25d	1	1.29mi
836 Hampton Cir #171 Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1580	$5,000	$3.16	23d	1	1.29mi
12914 Brynwood Preserve Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1720	$7,000	$4.07	25d	1	1.29mi
5356 Sycamore Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2060	$4,000	$1.94	25d	1	1.30mi
12885 Brynwood Way Naples, FL	3.0	3.0	2489	$10,000	$4.02	25d	1	1.30mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $945 · $11,340/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $465,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $465,000 Active 157 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $465,000 Active 156 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $465,000 Active 155 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $465,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $465,000 Active 152 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $465,000 Active 149 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $465,000 Active 148 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $465,000 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $465,000 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $465,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    remarks 681-char remark
13. 2026-06-03
    listed $465,000 Active 141 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,468 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,860 · $322/mo
• Expected delta: +$392/yr (+$33/mo · 11.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $57,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,047
• − Property taxes: −$3,468
• − Insurance: −$2,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,610
• − Management: −$4,610
• − HOA: −$11,340
• − Depreciation: −$13,527
• Taxable loss: −$8,298
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,991
• After-tax cash flow: $1,125/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vineyards

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #679
• US rank: #14101

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vineyards, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,807
• Household income: $113,391
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 741.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.12%
• Current HPI: 269.3208
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+234.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $465,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $530,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2022-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $475,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-10 Sold (MLS) $475,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2021-12-21 Pending — NAPLESMLS
• 2021-12-05 Listed $478,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2003-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $199,000 Public Records
• 1998-08-25 Sold (Public Records) $139,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,468 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.