2425 Bruin Dr · Briarcliff, TX 78669

$399,900

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,392 sqft · Condo public records · 118 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition $167/sqft · 43% below area $399/mo HOA · 14% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional opportunity in the highly sought-after Ascensions on Lake Travis community in Spicewood Springs. This nearly completed three-story residence offers an expansive and thoughtfully designed layout featuring 5 spacious bedrooms, 5.5 bathrooms, and two massive living areas—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining on a grand scale. The heavy lifting has already been done, with construction well underway and ready for a new owner to bring it across the finish line and customize the final details to their exact vision. Positioned in one of the most desirable Lake Travis-area neighborhoods, this home offers tremendous upside potential and the rare chance to create a truly bespoke luxury residence without starting from scratch. The scale, layout, and location combine to offer exceptional long-term value, whether intended as a primary residence, second home, or investment opportunity. Priced aggressively for a quick sale, this is a unique chance to secure a large, custom-quality home in a premier location at a compelling value. Opportunities like this are increasingly rare in the Lake Travis market.

Key facts

• Expansive layout
• Premier location
• Massive living areas

Tags

• THREE-STORY RESIDENCE
• EXPANSIVE LAYOUT
• MASSIVE LIVING AREAS
• BESPOKE LUXURY RESIDENCE
• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• PREMIER LOCATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-797 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (35.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $295k (26.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (35.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.9% vs local median 1.1% in Briarcliff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#771 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Marble Falls ISD (town): math 32% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #511 of 826 in TX (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 649 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 64% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,122 (35.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.54%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,197,334
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: -66.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-114,215
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.42×
• Total profit: $-159,287
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78669

• Home prices YoY: -16.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 649
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,951 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax from tax record: −$466 /mo · $5,587/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$399
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $-797

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,960

Max offer price $259,122

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-571	-5% $-684	+0% $-797	+5% $-910	+10% $-1,023
Rent	-10% $-1,030	-5% $-913	+0% $-797	+5% $-680	+10% $-564
Rate	-1.0pp $-596	-0.5pp $-695	base $-797	+0.5pp $-901	+1.0pp $-1,006

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2320 Kellie Brooke RD Spicewood, TX	3.0	2.0	1637	$2,600	$1.59	2d	1	0.04mi
2308 Kellie Brooke Rd #13 Spicewood, TX	3.0	2.0	1646	$2,400	$1.46	2d	1	0.07mi
1928 Art Adams Way Spicewood, TX	3.0	3.0	2104	$3,550	$1.69	2d	1	0.74mi
1201 Lakeshore Dr Unit N/A Spicewood, TX	3.0	2.0	2092	$2,950	$1.41	3d	1	1.20mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $399 · $4,788/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,900 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-05-15
    price $399,900 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Exceptional opportunity in the highly sought-after Ascensions on Lake Travis community in Spicewood Springs. This nearly completed three-story residence offers an expansive and thoughtfully designed layout featuring 5 spacious bedrooms, 5.5 bathrooms, and two massive living areas—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining on a grand scale. The heavy lifting has already been done, with construction well underway and ready for a new owner to bring it across the finish line and customize the final details to their exact vision. Positioned in one of the most desirable Lake Travis-area neighborhoods, this home offers tremendous upside potential and the rare chance to create a truly bespoke luxury residence without starting from scratch. The scale, layout, and location combine to offer exceptional long-term value, whether intended as a primary residence, second home, or investment opportunity. Priced aggressively for a quick sale, this is a unique chance to secure a large, custom-quality home in a premier location at a compelling value. Opportunities like this are increasingly rare in the Lake Travis market.

15. 2026-04-08
    price $429,900 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Exceptional opportunity in the highly sought-after Ascensions on Lake Travis community in Spicewood Springs. This nearly completed three-story residence offers an expansive and thoughtfully designed layout featuring 5 spacious bedrooms, 5.5 bathrooms, and two massive living areas—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining on a grand scale. The heavy lifting has already been done, with construction well underway and ready for a new owner to bring it across the finish line and customize the final details to their exact vision. Positioned in one of the most desirable Lake Travis-area neighborhoods, this home offers tremendous upside potential and the rare chance to create a truly bespoke luxury residence without starting from scratch. The scale, layout, and location combine to offer exceptional long-term value, whether intended as a primary residence, second home, or investment opportunity. Priced aggressively for a quick sale, this is a unique chance to secure a large, custom-quality home in a premier location at a compelling value. Opportunities like this are increasingly rare in the Lake Travis market.

16. 2026-02-20
    listed $459,900 Active 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    Exceptional opportunity in the highly sought-after Ascensions on Lake Travis community in Spicewood Springs. This nearly completed three-story residence offers an expansive and thoughtfully designed layout featuring 5 spacious bedrooms, 5.5 bathrooms, and two massive living areas—ideal for both everyday living and entertaining on a grand scale. The heavy lifting has already been done, with construction well underway and ready for a new owner to bring it across the finish line and customize the final details to their exact vision. Positioned in one of the most desirable Lake Travis-area neighborhoods, this home offers tremendous upside potential and the rare chance to create a truly bespoke luxury residence without starting from scratch. The scale, layout, and location combine to offer exceptional long-term value, whether intended as a primary residence, second home, or investment opportunity. Priced aggressively for a quick sale, this is a unique chance to secure a large, custom-quality home in a premier location at a compelling value. Opportunities like this are increasingly rare in the Lake Travis market.

17. 2024-04-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,587 · $466/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,318 · $610/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,731/yr (+$144/mo · 31.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 64% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,414
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$5,587
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,833
• − Management: −$2,833
• − HOA: −$4,788
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable loss: −$16,661
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,999
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This nearly completed three-story residence in the highly sought-after Ascensions on Lake Travis community is move-in ready with modern design and solid construction. It offers tremendous upside potential and the rare chance to create a truly beautiful home.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Neutral paint can be updated to match buyer's preference
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and appeal
• Both Add smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort
• Both Install smart lighting — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Neutral paint can be updated to match buyer's preference ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and appeal ↑
• Both Add smart thermostat — Improves energy efficiency and comfort ↑
• Both Install smart lighting — Enhances ambiance and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marble Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829010
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,663
• Composite: 30.3/100
• National rank: #6278
• State rank: #511 of 826 in TX

Livability — Briarcliff

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #771
• US rank: #14054

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,592
• Household income: $128,000
• Rent vs Own: 7.9% rent · 92.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 45.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.06%
• Current HPI: 251.3551
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.36%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $399,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $429,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-02-20 Listed $459,900 Unlock MLS
• 2024-04-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+202.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,587 · +37.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.