HOLLY Plan · Brandon, MS 39047

$349,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,961 sqft · SingleFamily · 136 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to the Holly, a beautifully designed home featured at The Preserve, our inviting new community in the charming city of Brandon, MS. With 4 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and a 2-car garage spread across 1,961 square feet, this thoughtfully crafted floorplan offers the perfect blend of style and functionality. Step onto the covered front porch and into an inviting foyer that sets the tone for the Holly's warm and welcoming design. To one side, you'll find a conveniently located laundry room and garage entry, while the opposite side leads to three spacious bedrooms and a full-size bathroom, ideal for family or guests. The heart of the Holly is its bright and open living area, where a seamless flow between the gourmet kitchen and living space creates an ideal environment for family meals and entertaining. Natural light pours in through large windows, highlighting elegant trey ceilings that add a sense of airy sophistication. The gourmet kitchen is a chef's dream, featuring granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, shaker cabinetry, a pantry, and a center island with bar seating. Adjacent to the kitchen, the dining space opens to a covered back patio, perfect for enjoying your morning coffee or evening breeze. Down a private hallway, the luxurious primary suite awaits. This serene retreat includes trey ceilings, natural light, and an ensuite bath with a garden tub, separate shower, double granite-topped vanities, linen storage, and a spacious walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Gourmet kitchen
• Ensuite bath

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• LUXURIOUS PRIMARY SUITE
• ENSUITE BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $349,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $433,998.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $213k (39.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (31.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (39.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 3.2% vs local median 4.7% in Brandon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pisgah Elementary School (math 46% / reading 54%, grade D+, #61 of 375 statewide, top 17%, 507 students, 99% FRL); Pisgah High School (math 60% / reading 39%, grade D, #22 of 197 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,677 (39.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.89%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 15.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $433,998
• List price: $349,900
• Delta: -19.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
194 Lake Harbor Rd	0.90mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-10%)	4mo	$332,670	$189	45
346 Lake Harbor Rd	0.97mi	4/2.0	1,826 (-7%)	16mo	$339,900	$186	40
227 Lizzy Ln	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,281 (+16%)	2mo	$449,000	$197	35
226 Lizzy Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,234 (+14%)	11mo	$435,600	$195	33
235 Lizzy Ln	0.78mi	4/2.0	2,269 (+16%)	8mo	$442,455	$195	33
416 Lennon Ln	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,290 (+17%)	7mo	$456,500	$199	32
207 Lizzy Ln	0.66mi	4/3.0	2,281 (+16%)	11mo	$420,000	$184	31
222 Lizzy Ln	0.61mi	4/3.0	2,322 (+18%)	16mo	$464,400	$200	30
420 Lennon Ln	0.79mi	4/3.0	2,255 (+15%)	10mo	$449,900	$200	28
418 Barksdale Rd	1.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,660 (-15%)	9mo	$354,900	$214	28
412 Lennon Ln	0.79mi	4/3.0	2,256 (+15%)	17mo	$449,900	$199	22
425 Lennon Ln	0.88mi	4/3.0	2,320 (+18%)	17mo	$464,000	$200	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -45.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-167,683
• Equity at exit: $64,710

10-year hold

• IRR: -82.9%
• Equity multiple: -1.23×
• Total profit: $-271,228
• Equity at exit: $37,524

Cash invested: $121,519 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 12 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $341,950 ($177/sqft)
• Median days on market: 72 d
• This list price: 58% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +24.9% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39047

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,276
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$542 /mo · $6,510/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $-1,529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,336

Max offer price $212,677

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,230	-5% $-1,380	+0% $-1,529	+5% $-1,679	+10% $-1,829
Rent	-10% $-1,719	-5% $-1,624	+0% $-1,529	+5% $-1,435	+10% $-1,340
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,311	-0.5pp $-1,419	base $-1,529	+0.5pp $-1,642	+1.0pp $-1,756

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,499
• Closing costs: $13,020
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $349,900 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $349,900 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $349,900 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $349,900 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $349,900 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $349,900 Active 131 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $349,900 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $349,900 Active 127 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $349,900 Active 126 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $349,900 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $349,900 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $349,900 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $349,900 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $349,900 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,900 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $349,900 Active 113 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $349,900 Active 112 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $349,900 Active 111 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,900 Active 110 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $349,900 Active 109 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $349,900 Active 108 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $349,900 Active 107 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $349,900 Active 106 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $349,900 Active 105 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $349,900 Active 104 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $349,900 Active 103 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $349,900 Active 102 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $349,900 Active 101 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $349,900 Active 100 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $349,900 Active 99 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $349,900 Active 98 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $349,900 Active 97 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $349,900 Active 96 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $349,900 Active 95 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $349,900 Active 94 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $349,900 Active 93 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $349,900 Active 91 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $349,900 Active 89 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $349,900 Active 88 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $349,900 Active 85 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $349,900 Active 84 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $349,900 Active 83 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $349,900 Active 82 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $349,900 Active 80 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $349,900 Active 79 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $349,900 Active 77 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,900 Active 76 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,900 Active 75 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,900 Active 74 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,900 Active 70 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 63% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,805
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,311
• − Property taxes: −$6,510
• − Insurance: −$7,288
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$12,625
• Taxable loss: −$26,539
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,369
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,985/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,805–$29,415 screening

This well-maintained, move-in-ready home in Canton, MS, offers a blend of style and functionality with a bright and open floor plan, modern appliances, and a charming exterior. It's ready for immediate occupancy and minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and home value ↑
• Rental Replace window screens — Improves energy efficiency and tenant satisfaction ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pisgah Elementary School D+ MS #61/375 Nat'l #12,529/41,679 High Pisgah High School D MS #22/197 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rankin County School District
• NCES district ID: 2803830
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $61,867
• Composite: 45.62/100
• National rank: #2587
• State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Brandon

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #3
• US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rankin County · 164,317 people
• City population: 79,950
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 40,808
• Household income: $100,347
• Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 164,317 people
• By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
• By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
• By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
• Current HPI: 162.9709
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $349,900 Zillow