1615 S Arago St · Peoria, IL 61605

$17,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 592 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1925 Est $19k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

Cottage style 1 Bedroom, 1 Bathroom home with large screened in front porch located at 1615 S Arago St. Peoria. Home has wood-look laminate flooring in living and bedroom. Large walk-in closet storage in living room. Appliances (range/oven, microwave and refrigerator) sold with home. Finished living area is approximately 592 square feet with a large basement for additional storage (washer/dryer hookups and shower stall). Private driveway and nice backyard. Was previously rented for $475/month.

Key facts

• Private driveway
• Large basement
• Nice backyard

Tags

• SCREENED IN FRONT PORCH
• WOOD LOOK LAMINATE FLOORING
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• LARGE BASEMENT
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• NICE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $18k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $530 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($832 rent vs $18k).
• Cap rate 42.6% vs local median 5.6% in Peoria — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#270 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Peoria SD 150 (urban): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #554 of 620 in IL (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 73 units permitted in Peoria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($26k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $232 of equity ($121 loan paydown + $111 appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Peoria County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $18k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $17,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 42.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 129.71%
• DSCR: 6.77
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $18,944
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1508 S Lydia Ave	0.26mi	1/1.0	588 (-1%)	14mo	$17,000	$29	75
1516 S Westmoreland Ave	0.15mi	1/1.0	504 (-15%)	2mo	$12,000	$24	67
2909 W Wyoming St	0.67mi	2/1.0 (+1)	572 (-3%)	15mo	$19,850	$35	45
2304 W Proctor St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (+1)	672 (+14%)	4mo	$39,500	$59	40
1912 W Garden St	0.55mi	1/1.0	672 (+14%)	19mo	$6,000	$9	36
2710 W Antoinette St	0.61mi	1/1.0	664 (+12%)	21mo	$21,000	$32	34
2408 W Wiswall St	0.73mi	2/1.0 (+1)	676 (+14%)	22mo	$27,589	$41	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.63% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.89×
• Total profit: $33,765
• Equity at exit: $5,642

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 16.47×
• Total profit: $75,814
• Equity at exit: $7,247

Cash invested: $4,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61605

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 42
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $832 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$92
• Tax from tax record: −$28 /mo · $340/yr
• Insurance: −$7
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$175
• Net cashflow: $530

Break-even live

Break-even rent $161

Max offer price $17,500

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,375
• Closing costs: $525
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2822 W Antoinette St Peoria, IL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,149	$1.60	21d	1	0.64mi
2807 W Nevada St Peoria, IL	1.0	1.0	540	$629	$1.16	21d	1	0.69mi
945 S Shelley St Peoria, IL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	929	$795	$0.86	13d	1	0.92mi
2317 W Martin Luther King Junior Dr Unit 1-106 Peoria, IL	1.0	1.0	588	$775	$1.32	43d	1	1.06mi
2317 W Martin Luther King Junior Dr Peoria, IL	1.0–2.0	1.0	697	$775	$1.11	13d	3	1.06mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $17,500 Active
2. 2021-08-06
   historical
3. 2021-08-06
   historical
4. 2014-04-14
   soldstatus $11,000
5. 2014-04-10
   soldstatus $10,990
6. 2014-02-17
   listed $10,990
7. 2012-11-09
   soldstatus $8,500
8. 2012-10-10
   listed $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $340 · $28/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $369 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$29/yr (+$2/mo · 8.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,981
• − Mortgage interest: −$980
• − Property taxes: −$340
• − Insurance: −$88
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$798
• − Management: −$798
• − Depreciation: −$509
• Taxable income: $6,467
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,552
• After-tax cash flow: $4,804/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peoria SD 150
• NCES district ID: 1731230
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,951
• Composite: 10.92/100
• National rank: #9751
• State rank: #554 of 620 in IL

Livability — Peoria

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #270
• US rank: #5096

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Peoria, IL
• County: Peoria County · 120,495 people
• City population: 114,670
• Metro: Peoria, IL
• Population (ZIP): 13,424
• Household income: $26,392
• Rent vs Own: 57.5% rent · 42.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1385.0

Population outlook (Peoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 183,007 people
• By 2030: 179,643 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 171,782 · -6.1%
• By 2050: 163,508 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 140,178 · -23.4%
• By 2100: 114,493 · -37.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 27% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Peoria

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.5% · R 46.9% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: 13.9pp · 2024: 4.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.7 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+2.8 2012: D+4.4 2008: D+13.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.63%
• Current HPI: 170.5814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Peoria, IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+75.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $17,500 FSBO.com
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 2014-04-10 Sold (MLS) $10,990 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-02-17 Listed $10,990 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-09 Sold (MLS) $8,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-10 Listed $10,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $340 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.