38416 El Quelite Rd · Penitas, TX 78576

$119,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2023 0.61 ac lot $119/sqft · 24% below area Est $157k · 24% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• Cash flow +4.6/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath frame home offers approximately 1,000 square feet of comfortable living space and sits on a generous 0.61-acre lot. With permission for livestock, you have the perfect opportunity to create your own small ranch, blending country living with modern convenience. The home features mini-split systems in the main rooms for efficient heating and cooling. Don’t miss your chance to make this property your personal ranch retreat!

Key facts

• Mini-split systems
• 0.61 acre lot
• Built 2023

Tags

• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-302 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $66k (44.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $74k (37.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $66k (44.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#820 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• La Joya ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #759 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $8k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 96% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,676 (44.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.87%
• DSCR: 0.52
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $157,087
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -24.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15510 Circle 6th Street South	0.46mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,148 (+15%)	1mo	$205,000	$179	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $17,636
• Equity at exit: $77,418

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $66,431
• Equity at exit: $142,704

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78576

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 52
• Price-to-rent: 13.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $740 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,554/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$155
• Net cashflow: $-302

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,122

Max offer price $65,676

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17002 Queen Palm Dr Unit C Penitas, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$760	$1.09	43d	1	1.32mi
17002 Queen Palm Dr Unit B Penitas, TX	2.0	1.0	700	$720	$1.03	43d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-03-30
    listed $119,000 Active 462-char remark

    Show marketing remark (462 chars)

    This charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath frame home offers approximately 1,000 square feet of comfortable living space and sits on a generous 0.61-acre lot. With permission for livestock, you have the perfect opportunity to create your own small ranch, blending country living with modern convenience. The home features mini-split systems in the main rooms for efficient heating and cooling. Don’t miss your chance to make this property your personal ranch retreat!

18. 2026-03-25
    listed $137,900 Active
19. 2026-03-03
    price $137,900
20. 2026-02-26
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,554 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,554 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 96% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $8,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$2,554
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$710
• − Management: −$710
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$5,817
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,396
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,226/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: La Joya ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826130
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $27,845
• Composite: 18.65/100
• National rank: #8891
• State rank: #759 of 826 in TX

Livability — Penitas

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #820
• US rank: #14866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,902

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 99% Two or more races 71%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 97%
• Foreign-born: 31% · Canada
• Languages at home: 4% English-only · Spanish 96%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.35%
• Current HPI: 238.1571
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $119,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $137,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $137,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $139,900 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+50.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,554 · +16.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.