14559 Keswick Dr · Shelby, MI 48315

$35,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,850 sqft · Other · 31 Days on market

Built 1986 1,000 sqft lot $705/mo HOA · 35% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious manufactured home offering over 1,800 sq. ft. of potential in desirable Shelby Forest Mobile Home Park! Situated on a corner lot toward the back of the community, this home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a flexible floor plan with plenty of living space. Built in 1986, this home is ready for your personal touches and updates to truly make it shine. Great opportunity for a buyer looking to build equity with some TLC. Monthly lot rent is $703 and buyers must be approved by the park. Enjoy all the amenities this community has to offer including a clubhouse available for private rental, fitness center, inground pool, and multiple playground areas. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and major roadways. With a little vision and effort, this could be a wonderful place to call home. Showings allowed with an accepted offer. Being sold "AS IS"

Key facts

• Fitness center
• Inground pool
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FITNESS CENTER
• INGROUND POOL
• MULTIPLE PLAYGROUND AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved road access; Lot dimensions listed as 50 x 20
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $705; HOA covers maintenance of grounds, snow removal, and trash; Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, and fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential property; One level; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built area above grade: 1,850 (square feet)
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Patio/porch; Community in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Dishwasher not listed
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Electric and gas water heaters; Dryer and Washer included; Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave; Seven total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $645 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.4% vs local median 3.2% in Shelby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#324 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Utica Community Schools (suburban): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #126 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 35% of rent.

Recommended offer $33,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 79.01%
• DSCR: 4.52
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 79.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.66×
• Total profit: $35,886
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 83.1%
• Equity multiple: 9.78×
• Total profit: $86,048
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48315

• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$705
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $645

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13955 Bronte Dr N Shelby Township, MI	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,799	$1.30	10d	1	0.25mi
13670 Silver Birch Cir Shelby Township, MI	2.0	2.0	1500	$1,850	$1.23	44d	1	0.63mi
51401 Times Square Dr Shelby Township, MI	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1400	$2,275	$1.62	15d	8	0.90mi
14973 Milan Ct Shelby Township, MI	2.0–3.0	2.5	1773	$2,924	$1.65	2d	4	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $705 · $8,460/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $35,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $35,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    Spacious manufactured home offering over 1,800 sq. ft. of potential in desirable Shelby Forest Mobile Home Park! Situated on a corner lot toward the back of the community, this home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a flexible floor plan with plenty of living space. Built in 1986, this home is ready for your personal touches and updates to truly make it shine. Great opportunity for a buyer looking to build equity with some TLC. Monthly lot rent is $703 and buyers must be approved by the park. Enjoy all the amenities this community has to offer including a clubhouse available for private rental, fitness center, inground pool, and multiple playground areas. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and major roadways. With a little vision and effort, this could be a wonderful place to call home. Showings allowed with an accepted offer. Being sold "AS IS"

16. 2026-05-18
    listed $35,000 Active 890-char remark

    Show marketing remark (890 chars)

    Spacious manufactured home offering over 1,800 sq. ft. of potential in desirable Shelby Forest Mobile Home Park! Situated on a corner lot toward the back of the community, this home features 3 bedrooms, 2 full bathrooms, and a flexible floor plan with plenty of living space. Built in 1986, this home is ready for your personal touches and updates to truly make it shine. Great opportunity for a buyer looking to build equity with some TLC. Monthly lot rent is $703 and buyers must be approved by the park. Enjoy all the amenities this community has to offer including a clubhouse available for private rental, fitness center, inground pool, and multiple playground areas. Conveniently located near shopping, restaurants, and major roadways. With a little vision and effort, this could be a wonderful place to call home. Showings allowed with an accepted offer. Being sold "AS IS"

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,935
• − Management: −$1,935
• − HOA: −$8,460
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $8,176
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,962
• After-tax cash flow: $5,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634470
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $65,953
• Composite: 40.52/100
• National rank: #3709
• State rank: #126 of 540 in MI

Livability — Shelby

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #324
• US rank: #7973

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 28,428

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 4% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 9% Arabic 4% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -173.36%
• Current HPI: 194.9368
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $35,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-18 Listed $35,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS