519 Dorwood Park · Ransomville, NY 14131

$24,400

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Manufactured · 26 Days on market

Built 1973 Fair condition $27/sqft · 44% above area Est $17k · 44% over ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This cozy 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath Single Wide Mobile home is located in the Town of Wilson and Wilson School District in the Dorwood Mobile Home Community. Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator and large electric Fireplace in the front bedroom all stay. Gas stove is excluded. The 900 square feet is approximate. Lot rent is $620 per month and includes water, sewar and garbage. Buyer must get park approval before purchase is final. The purchase of this home is contingent upon the seller closing on the purchase of a new home. Amish built shed and picket fence around most of the yard and covered entrance. Playground is right down the street. This is priced to sell!

Key facts

• Amish built shed
• Picket fence
• Covered entrance

Tags

• AMISH BUILT SHED
• PICKET FENCE
• COVERED ENTRANCE
• PLAYGROUND NEARBY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $24k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $554 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($915 rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 33.5% vs local median 2.6% in Ransomville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#548 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Wilson Central School District (town): math 52% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #319 of 590 in NY (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 32 active listings in the ZIP; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($169 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $24,034 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 97.28%
• DSCR: 5.33
• GRM: 2.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $17,000
• List price: $24,400
• Delta: 43.53%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
414 Dorwood Park	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (+12%)	24mo	$27,000	$27	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.11×
• Total profit: $48,578
• Equity at exit: $21,981

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.88×
• Total profit: $115,340
• Equity at exit: $47,404

Cash invested: $6,832 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14131

• Home prices YoY: 7.8%
• Active inventory: 32
• Price-to-rent: 2.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$128
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$30 /mo · $366/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$192
• Net cashflow: $554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $213

Max offer price $24,400

Occupancy floor 34%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $571	-5% $562	+0% $554	+5% $545	+10% $537
Rent	-10% $482	-5% $518	+0% $554	+5% $590	+10% $626
Rate	-1.0pp $566	-0.5pp $560	base $554	+0.5pp $548	+1.0pp $541

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,100
• Closing costs: $732
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   This cozy 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath Single Wide Mobile home is located in the Town of Wilson and Wilson School District in the Dorwood Mobile Home Community. Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator and large electric Fireplace in the front bedroom all stay. Gas stove is excluded. The 900 square feet is approximate. Lot rent is $620 per month and includes water, sewar and garbage. Buyer must get park approval before purchase is final. The purchase of this home is contingent upon the seller closing on the purchase of a new home. Amish built shed and picket fence around most of the yard and covered entrance. Playground is right down the street. This is priced to sell!

2. 2026-05-14
   price $24,400 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   This cozy 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath Single Wide Mobile home is located in the Town of Wilson and Wilson School District in the Dorwood Mobile Home Community. Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator and large electric Fireplace in the front bedroom all stay. Gas stove is excluded. The 900 square feet is approximate. Lot rent is $620 per month and includes water, sewar and garbage. Buyer must get park approval before purchase is final. The purchase of this home is contingent upon the seller closing on the purchase of a new home. Amish built shed and picket fence around most of the yard and covered entrance. Playground is right down the street. This is priced to sell!

3. 2026-04-20
   listed $24,900 Active 653-char remark

   Show marketing remark (653 chars)

   This cozy 2 Bedroom, 1 Bath Single Wide Mobile home is located in the Town of Wilson and Wilson School District in the Dorwood Mobile Home Community. Washer, Dryer, Refrigerator and large electric Fireplace in the front bedroom all stay. Gas stove is excluded. The 900 square feet is approximate. Lot rent is $620 per month and includes water, sewar and garbage. Buyer must get park approval before purchase is final. The purchase of this home is contingent upon the seller closing on the purchase of a new home. Amish built shed and picket fence around most of the yard and covered entrance. Playground is right down the street. This is priced to sell!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,974
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,367
• − Property taxes: −$366
• − Insurance: −$122
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$878
• − Management: −$878
• − Depreciation: −$710
• Taxable income: $6,654
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,597
• After-tax cash flow: $5,049/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-wide mobile home is in fair condition with some cosmetic updates needed, such as painting and landscaping, to enhance its curb appeal and value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Painting — Siding shows some discoloration
• Minor Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Painting · Siding shows some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Landscaping · Overgrown vegetation	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wilson Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631560
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $57,181
• Composite: 46.37/100
• National rank: #2462
• State rank: #319 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ransomville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #548
• US rank: #9859

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,339
• Population (ZIP): 5,339

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 14% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 21.41%
• Current HPI: 297.4314
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-2.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $24,400 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $24,900 WNYREIS