421 Ash St · Johnstown, PA 15902

$19,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,016 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

7,405 sqft lot Est $26k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This Home, Located in the City of Johnstown, offers 2 Bedrooms & 2 Full Bathrooms. Living Room, Kitchen, & Laundry Room on the First Floor. Situated on a Large Private Lot with Fenced-In Back Yard and Detached 2 Car Garage with Concrete Parking Area. Call today for more information or to schedule your personal tour.

Key facts

• Fenced-in back yard
• Large private lot
• 7,405 sq ft lot

Tags

• LARGE PRIVATE LOT
• FENCED-IN BACK YARD
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• CONCRETE PARKING AREA

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2 garage spaces; Concrete parking surfaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two stories
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Rectangular lot; City street frontage; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Cooling with ceiling fans
• Interior features: Partial, unfinished basement; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $19k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $503 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($855 rent vs $19k).
• Cap rate 38.1% vs local median 15.0% in Johnstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#363 in PA, #3,168 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D+, crime F, employment F.
• Greater Johnstown SD (urban): math 9% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #509 of 539 in PA (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 64 units permitted in Cambria County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $131 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $570 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cambria County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $5k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.

Recommended offer $19,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 113.48%
• DSCR: 6.05
• GRM: 1.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $26,416
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 Hickory St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,114 (+10%)	3mo	$75,000	$67	67
741 Mcmillen St	0.32mi	2/1.0	960 (-6%)	7mo	$22,000	$23	66
743 Mcmillen St	0.32mi	2/1.0	960 (-6%)	7mo	$28,000	$29	66
609 South St	0.70mi	2/1.0	1,024 (+1%)	13mo	$18,000	$18	51
926 Bloom St	0.45mi	2/1.0	1,148 (+13%)	5mo	$30,000	$26	49
103 Cliff St	0.11mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,152 (+13%)	20mo	$23,500	$20	47
943 Fronheiser St	0.53mi	2/1.0	914 (-10%)	13mo	$64,000	$70	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.45×
• Total profit: $29,001
• Equity at exit: $2,833

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 13.53×
• Total profit: $66,668
• Equity at exit: $1,643

Cash invested: $5,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15902

• Home prices YoY: -28.8%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 1.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $855 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$100
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $774/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $503

Break-even live

Break-even rent $218

Max offer price $19,000

Occupancy floor 36%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $4,750
• Closing costs: $570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
412 Oak St Unit 1 Johnstown, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$900	$0.82	44d	1	0.09mi
906 Lemon St Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1128	$750	$0.66	44d	1	0.34mi
343 Linden Ave Unit 2 Johnstown, PA	1.0	1.0	850	$675	$0.79	44d	1	1.01mi
619 Grove Ave Johnstown, PA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,050	$0.95	44d	1	1.19mi
129-131 Plainfield Ave Johnstown, PA	3.0	1.0	1300	$850	$0.65	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-05-18
   listed $19,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $774 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $774 · $64/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,255
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,064
• − Property taxes: −$774
• − Insurance: −$95
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$820
• − Management: −$820
• − Depreciation: −$553
• Taxable income: $6,129
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $4,566/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greater Johnstown SD
• NCES district ID: 4210950
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,890
• Composite: 13.25/100
• National rank: #9550
• State rank: #509 of 539 in PA

Livability — Johnstown

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #3168

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnstown, PA
• County: Cambria County · 30,791 people
• City population: 30,791
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• Population (ZIP): 11,462
• Household income: $44,215
• Rent vs Own: 35.7% rent · 64.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 266.0

Population outlook (Cambria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 122,754 people
• By 2030: 115,827 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 101,309 · -17.5%
• By 2050: 88,379 · -28.0%
• By 2075: 65,237 · -46.9%
• By 2100: 46,909 · -61.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 14% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 2% Hungarian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Cambria

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -40.4pp toward R · 2008: 0.7pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+37.8 2012: R+17.8 2008: D+0.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.86%
• Current HPI: 108.2198
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Johnstown, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $19,000 CSMLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $774 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.