220 Barberry Ln · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40503

$439,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,842 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1947 6,969 sqft lot Est $407k · 8% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• ARV discount +3.9/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming home in the Seven Parks historic district is what you have been waiting for. Abundant natural light meets a functional layout inside. The finished second floor and two finished rooms in the basement give you a ton of layout options. Two nice sized bedrooms on the first floor, full bathroom, dining room just off the kitchen and living room complete this historic beauty. The character and space your family has been looking for!

Key facts

• 6,969 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1947

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: House; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Block foundation; Shingle roof; Total building area ~1,853
• Exterior features: Landscaped lot with few trees; Chain link and wood fencing; Public water; Not waterfront; No notable view

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas range; Refrigerator; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 11
• Flooring: Hardwood; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Entrance foyer; Walk-in closet(s); Ceiling fan(s); Partially finished basement with walk-out and walk-up access; Sump pump; Fireplace; Finished lower level area (~592 below-grade finished)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup (lower level)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (40.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (52.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $208k (52.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picadome Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 430 students, 56% FRL); Morton Middle School (math 41% / reading 58%, grade C, #25 of 217 statewide, top 12%, 705 students, 43% FRL); Lafayette High School (math 47% / reading 54%, grade D+, #10 of 254 statewide, top 4%, 2,432 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 78 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $282k; list at $440k implies a 56% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,844 (52.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.47% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.81%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 17.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $407,082
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
213 Barberry Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,900 (+3%)	11mo	$491,025	$258	78
185 Sioux Rd	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,830 (-1%)	11mo	$370,000	$202	72
126 Wabash Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,928 (+5%)	0mo	$426,000	$221	65
116 Penmoken Park	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,855 (+1%)	12mo	$395,000	$213	64
361 Bob O Link Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,604 (-13%)	1mo	$381,000	$238	58
204 Lackawanna Rd	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,766 (-4%)	12mo	$300,000	$170	57
216 Forest Park Rd	0.33mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,940 (+5%)	14mo	$390,000	$201	55
514 Springhill Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,903 (+3%)	14mo	$415,000	$218	48
508 Southbend Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,885 (+2%)	11mo	$360,000	$191	48
121 Penmoken Park	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-13%)	9mo	$360,000	$226	47
214 Lackawanna Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-15%)	11mo	$410,850	$261	38
528 Rosemont Gdn	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (-6%)	13mo	$440,000	$253	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-132,560
• Equity at exit: $65,531

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.51×
• Total profit: $-186,282
• Equity at exit: $38,000

Cash invested: $123,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40503

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 78
• Price-to-rent: 17.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,078 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,305
• Tax from tax record: −$161 /mo · $1,926/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-1,006

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,352

Max offer price $261,703

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,875
• Closing costs: $13,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1626 Nicholasville Rd Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1670	$2,095	$1.25	23d	1	0.26mi
657 Montclair Dr Lexington, KY	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,395	$1.41	23d	1	0.99mi
510 Hill N Dale Rd Lexington, KY	4.0	1.0	1358	$1,750	$1.29	23d	1	1.18mi
246 Hill N Dale Rd Lexington, KY	4.0	2.0	1365	$2,300	$1.68	21d	1	1.23mi
1100 Horsemans Ln Unit HM37 Lexington, KY	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,500	$1.00	23d	1	1.40mi
1100-1102 Tates Creek Rd Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1450	$2,100	$1.45	23d	1	1.41mi
1100 Tates Creek Rd Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	1450	$2,100	$1.45	23d	1	1.41mi
1100 Horsemans Ln Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	23d	1	1.42mi
374 Park Ave Lexington, KY	4.0	2.0	1513	$3,500	$2.31	14d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $439,500 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $439,500 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $439,500 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $439,500 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $439,500 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $439,500 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $439,500 Contingent 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $439,500 Contingent 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $439,500 Contingent 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 687-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    listed $439,500 Contingent 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,926 · $161/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,780 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,853/yr (+$154/mo · 96.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,619
• − Property taxes: −$1,926
• − Insurance: −$2,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,995
• − Management: −$1,995
• − Depreciation: −$12,785
• Taxable loss: −$20,577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,939
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 27,451
• Household income: $76,482
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1151.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -280.10%
• Current HPI: 241.5612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.40%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+206.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2026-06-05 Listed $439,500 ImagineMLS
• 2021-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $282,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-16 Sold (MLS) $282,000 ImagineMLS
• 2021-06-25 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2021-06-23 Listed $265,000 ImagineMLS
• 2002-05-09 Sold (MLS) $139,900 ImagineMLS
• 2002-03-21 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2002-02-25 Listed $143,500 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2015): $1,926 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.