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2994 Cherry Ln 🏗️ New Construction
F Composite 34.01
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +7.8/30.0
  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • Livability +3.7/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.8/5.0
  • 1% rule +2.7/10.0
  • Schools +2.6/10.0
  • DSCR +1.9/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$249,990

2994 Cherry Ln · Haines City, FL 33844
3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,460 sqft · Townhouse · 99 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 6,534 sqft lot 1-car garage $82/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

This new two-story townhome offers ample space to live and grow with a total of three bedrooms. The first level features a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen and family room, maximizing the interior living space. Two secondary bedrooms and a lavish owner's suite featuring a full bathroom comprise the second floor.

Key facts

  • Dog park
  • Resort style pool
  • Fitness ctr

Tags

OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUTAMENITY-RICH COMMUNITYRESORT STYLE POOLFITNESS CTRDOG PARKWALKING TRAILS

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
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🏗️ New construction. The $249,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $278,950.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $250k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (6.3% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (13.9% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $215k (13.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 74/100 on livability (#285 in FL, #4,575 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
  • Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Eastside Elementary School (math 33% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,854 of 2,144 statewide, top 87%, 615 students, 66% FRL); Shelley S. Boone Middle School (math 25% / reading 25%, grade F, #517 of 571 statewide, top 91%, 1,403 students, 52% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
  • Zoned-school proficiency averages 26% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 1726 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
  • This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 4 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Recommended offer $215,234 (13.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
  7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.77%
Cap rate
4.96%
Cash-on-cash
-4.75%
DSCR
0.79
GRM
10.8

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$278,950
List price
$249,990
Delta
-10.02%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
4 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
2366 Aveeno Ave 0.08mi 3/2.5 1,463 (+0%) 0mo $269,900 $184 96
2728 Adair Rd 1.45mi 2/2.0 (-1) 1,460 (0%) 0mo $600,000 $411 58
4214 Hillock Blvd 0.81mi 3/2.5 1,548 (+6%) 0mo $257,499 $166 55
3841 Amers Loop 0.31mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,733 (+19%) 0mo $304,814 $176 53
1126 Tupelo Trl 1.28mi 3/2.0 1,725 (+18%) 0mo $270,000 $157 38
4778 Katrina Dr 0.68mi 4/2.0 (+1) 1,824 (+25%) 0mo $270,990 $149 36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-26.5%
Equity multiple
0.12×
Total profit
$-68,738
Equity at exit
$41,592
10-year hold
IRR
-31.6%
Equity multiple
-0.29×
Total profit
$-100,369
Equity at exit
$24,118

Cash invested: $78,106 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Florida
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
32 active · 20 under contract
Months of supply
96.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$254,950 ($179/sqft)
Median days on market
46 d
This list price
47% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+6.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33844

Home prices YoY
-26.7%
Rents YoY
1.2%
Active inventory
1726
Price-to-rent
9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,152 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$1,463
Tax est. 1.5%
$349 /mo · $4,184/yr
Insurance
$116
HOA
$82
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$452
Net cashflow
$-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,544
Max offer price $234,178
Occupancy floor

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-117 -5% $-213 +0% $-309 +5% $-406 +10% $-502
Rent -10% $-479 -5% $-394 +0% $-309 +5% $-224 +10% $-139
Rate -1.0pp $-169 -0.5pp $-238 base $-309 +0.5pp $-382 +1.0pp $-455

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$69,737
Closing costs
$8,368
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 24 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
3874 Amers Loop Haines City, FL 4.0 2.5 1874 $2,130 $1.14 27d 1 0.26mi
3898 Amers Loop Haines City, FL 4.0 2.5 1874 $2,150 $1.15 72d 1 0.26mi
1364 Conch Key Ln Davenport, FL 3.0 2.0 1485 $2,150 $1.45 52d 1 0.33mi
5193 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL 4.0 2.0 1824 $2,099 $1.15 72d 1 0.67mi
5514 Clove Row Haines City, FL 3.0 2.0 1288 $2,200 $1.71 19d 1 0.74mi
4746 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL 4.0 2.0 1818 $2,095 $1.15 72d 1 0.76mi
5153 Green Belt Dr Haines City, FL 4.0 2.0 1824 $2,300 $1.26 63d 1 0.77mi
5009 Katrina Dr Haines City, FL 4.0 2.0 1840 $2,350 $1.28 27d 1 0.78mi
4156 Hummock Pl Haines City, FL 3.0 2.5 1548 $1,850 $1.20 72d 1 0.78mi
3754 King Hill Dr Haines City, FL 3.0 2.5 1720 $1,800 $1.05 72d 1 0.85mi
2404 White Tail St Davenport, FL 3.0 2.0 1695 $2,100 $1.24 41d 1 0.98mi
2404 White Tail St Davenport, FL 3.0 2.0 1696 $2,100 $1.24 27d 1 0.98mi
2622 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL 4.0 2.0 1840 $2,200 $1.20 72d 1 0.99mi
2606 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL 3.0 2.0 1700 $2,000 $1.18 52d 1 1.00mi
2606 Irish Elk Ave Davenport, FL 3.0 2.0 1700 $2,000 $1.18 39d 1 1.00mi
914 Princess Sabal Pt Haines City, FL 3.0 2.0 1677 $1,775 $1.06 27d 1 1.08mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL 4.0 2.0 1828 $1,999 $1.09 72d 1 1.17mi
1433 Princess Tree Ct Haines City, FL 4.0 2.0 1867 $2,050 $1.10 27d 1 1.18mi
1186 Tupelo Trl Haines City, FL 4.0 2.5 1767 $2,200 $1.25 27d 1 1.35mi
339 Towns Cir Haines City, FL 3.0 2.0 1282 $1,795 $1.40 27d 1 1.41mi
462 Earheart Dr Davenport, FL 4.0 2.0 1598 $1,916 $1.20 19d 1 1.45mi
607 Lindbergh Way Davenport, FL 3.0 2.0 1407 $1,851 $1.32 52d 1 1.46mi
703 Gotts Rd Davenport, FL 3.0 1.0 1160 $1,550 $1.34 19d 1 1.47mi
646 Lindbergh Way Davenport, FL 3.0 2.0 1407 $1,836 $1.30 52d 1 1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Total living area listed as 1,460 sq ft (builder)Building area total listed as 1,660 sq ftLot about 0.04 acre (approx. 607 m²)Road surface: asphalt
Financial info
Other annual assessment amount listedLease restrictions apply
HOA & community
HOA required (association: PRIME MGMT / TRISTAN RAFOOL)Monthly HOA approximately $82.33Quarterly association fee listed ($247)Association fee includes pool, recreational facilities and escrow reservesAssociation amenities: playground, pool, trailsAssociation approval requiredPets allowedCommunity features include dog park, playground, pool and street lights

Exterior

Parking
Attached 1-car garage (11 x 20) with driveway and garage door opener
Security
Smoke detector(s)
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity available and connectedCable available and connectedFiber opticsUnderground utilities
Home design
Residential townhouseTwo levelsUnder construction (projected completion: 2026-09-30)North-facing
Construction
New constructionBuilt with block, cement siding, frame and other materialsShingle roofStem wall foundationBuilder: Lennar Homes (Model: Summit)
Exterior features
PatioPorchPaved, private lotIrrigation equipment

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeRefrigeratorSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinets
Bedrooms
3 bedrooms
Flooring
CarpetCeramic tile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms1 half bathroom
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
In-wall pest systemKitchen open to family roomOpen floorplanSolid surface countersSolid wood cabinetsThermostatWalk-in closetsThermal windowsSmoke detector(s)
Laundry & utility
Inside laundry with washer and dryer includedInside utility room

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $249,990 Active 99 DOM
  2. 2026-08-07
    pricedays on market $249,990 Active 98 DOM
  3. 2026-08-06
    days on market $250,999 Active 97 DOM
  4. 2026-08-05
    days on market $250,999 Active 96 DOM
  5. 2026-08-04
    days on market $250,999 Active 95 DOM
  6. 2026-08-03
    days on market $250,999 Active 94 DOM
  7. 2026-07-31
    days on market $250,999 Active 91 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $250,999 Active 90 DOM
  9. 2026-07-30
    days on market $250,999 Active 89 DOM
  10. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $250,999 Active 88 DOM
  11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $258,999 Active 86 DOM
  12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $258,999 Active 84 DOM
  13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $258,999 Active 83 DOM
  14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $258,999 Active 82 DOM
  15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $258,999 Active 81 DOM
  16. 2026-07-19
    days on market $258,999 Active 78 DOM
  17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $258,999 Active 77 DOM
  18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $258,999 Active 76 DOM
  19. 2026-07-15
    days on market $258,999 Active 75 DOM
  20. 2026-07-14
    days on market $258,999 Active 74 DOM
  21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $258,999 Active 73 DOM
  22. 2026-07-13
    days on market $258,999 Active 72 DOM
  23. 2026-07-11
    days on market $258,999 Active 71 DOM
  24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $258,999 Active 69 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $258,999 Active 67 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $258,999 Active 66 DOM
  27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $258,999 Active 65 DOM
  28. 2026-07-03
    days on market $258,999 Active 63 DOM
  29. 2026-07-02
    days on market $258,999 Active 62 DOM
  30. 2026-07-01
    days on market $258,999 Active 61 DOM
  31. 2026-06-30
    days on market $258,999 Active 60 DOM
  32. 2026-06-29
    days on market $258,999 Active 59 DOM
  33. 2026-06-28
    days on market $258,999 Active 58 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $258,999 Active 57 DOM
  35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $258,999 Active 56 DOM
  36. 2026-06-25
    days on market $258,999 Active 54 DOM
  37. 2026-06-23
    days on market $258,999 Active 52 DOM
  38. 2026-06-22
    pricedays on market $258,999 Active 51 DOM
  39. 2026-06-18
    days on market $263,999 Active 48 DOM
  40. 2026-06-17
    price $263,999 Active 47 DOM
  41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $268,999 Active 47 DOM
  42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $268,999 Active 46 DOM
    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    This new two-story townhome offers ample space to live and grow with a total of three bedrooms. The first level features a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen and family room, maximizing the interior living space. Two secondary bedrooms and a lavish owner's suite featuring a full bathroom comprise the second floor.

  43. 2026-06-15
    price $268,999 Active 45 DOM
    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    This new two-story townhome offers ample space to live and grow with a total of three bedrooms. The first level features a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen and family room, maximizing the interior living space. Two secondary bedrooms and a lavish owner's suite featuring a full bathroom comprise the second floor.

  44. 2026-06-15
    days on market $263,999 Active 45 DOM
    Show marketing remark (349 chars)

    This new two-story townhome offers ample space to live and grow with a total of three bedrooms. The first level features a spacious and flexible open-concept layout shared between the kitchen and family room, maximizing the interior living space. Two secondary bedrooms and a lavish owner's suite featuring a full bathroom comprise the second floor.

  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $263,999 Active 43 DOM
  46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $263,999 Active 40 DOM
  47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $263,999 Active 39 DOM
  48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $263,999 Active 38 DOM
  49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $263,999 Active 37 DOM
  50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $263,999 Active 34 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$25,828
− Mortgage interest
−$15,626
− Property taxes
−$4,184
− Insurance
−$1,395
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,066
− Management
−$2,066
− HOA
−$984
− Depreciation
−$8,115
Taxable loss
−$8,608
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$2,066
After-tax cash flow
$-1,647/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This newly constructed townhome is in excellent condition with modern finishes and ample space. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

  • Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
  • Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers
  • Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value
F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Eastside Elementary School F FL #1,854/2,144 Nat'l #26,096/41,679 Middle Shelley S. Boone Middle School F FL #517/571 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Ridge Community High School F FL #539/667 Nat'l #13,583/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Polk
NCES district ID
1201590
Math proficiency
39% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency
43% ▼ -4.00%
Median HH income
$43,979
Composite
34.74/100
National rank
#5132
State rank
#62 of 73 in FL
B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Haines City

Score
74/100
State rank
#285
US rank
#4575

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Haines City, FL
County
Polk County · 752,975 people
City population
51,255
Metro
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
Population (ZIP)
51,255
Household income
$63,650
Rent vs Own
29.6% rent · 70.4% own
Severe rent burden
9% of renters

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
752,975 people
By 2030
804,621 · +6.9%
By 2040
906,117 · +20.3%
By 2050
1,000,476 · +32.9%
By 2075
1,197,520 · +59.0%
By 2100
1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
Race & ethnicity
Hispanic / Latino 48% White 31% Black 18% Two or more races 12% Asian 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 19% Cuban 1% Dominican 3%
Common ancestry
Hispanic 4% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
Foreign-born
15% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
Languages at home
55% English-only · Spanish 39% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

2024 margin
Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
2008→2024 swing
-14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
All cycles
2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-5.5% since first listed
18 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-19 Price Changed $258,999 Zillow
  • 2026-06-19 Price Changed $258,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-17 Price Changed $263,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-16 Price Changed $263,999 Zillow
  • 2026-06-15 Price Changed $268,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-06-15 Price Changed $268,999 Zillow
  • 2026-06-02 Price Changed $263,999 Zillow
  • 2026-06-01 Price Changed $263,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-27 Relisted Zillow
  • 2026-05-27 Price Changed $268,999 Zillow
  • 2026-05-26 Relisted Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-26 Price Changed $268,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-26 Listing Removed Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-22 Delisted Zillow
  • 2026-05-14 Price Changed $263,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-05-13 Price Changed $263,999 Zillow
  • 2026-05-01 Listed $273,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
  • 2026-04-24 Listed $273,999 Zillow

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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