1616 Fern Dr · Dothan, AL 36301

$144,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,998 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $278k · 48% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large lot in Lakewood. All brick home features open floor plan with kitchen, living area, and breakfast area open. Home has 4 bedroom, 2 bath home. Fireplace in family room. Fenced Backyard. Home has walk in closet, and mud room for storage.

Key facts

• Pool
• Built 1999
• Listed 14 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 4.4% in Dothan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#146 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Dothan City (urban): math 19% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #73 of 129 in AL (top 57%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Dothan City Early Education Center (168 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 59% district-wide (59 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 463 units permitted in Houston County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Houston County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $41k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.94%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,722
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
607 Lakewood Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	2,004 (+0%)	7mo	$241,500	$121	81
307 Pepperridge Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,852 (-7%)	2mo	$262,000	$141	80
114 Bluffton Rd	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,937 (-3%)	8mo	$269,900	$139	72
106 Needle Pne	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,836 (-8%)	1mo	$185,000	$101	68
2017 Fern Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,850 (-7%)	10mo	$323,000	$175	62
110 Berry Patch Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	2,052 (+3%)	2mo	$291,500	$142	60
2002 Spaulding Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,045 (+2%)	2mo	$216,900	$106	59
2002 Spaulding Rd	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,045 (+2%)	2mo	$216,900	$106	59
106 Yaupon Ct	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,785 (-11%)	13mo	$260,000	$146	57
2203 Saddlewood Trl	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,197 (+10%)	10mo	$254,000	$116	50
205 Creek Ridge Rd	0.57mi	3/3.5	2,176 (+9%)	9mo	$310,000	$142	46
576 Taylor Rd	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,783 (-11%)	8mo	$223,000	$125	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $68,997
• Equity at exit: $21,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.41×
• Total profit: $179,102
• Equity at exit: $12,536

Cash invested: $40,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36301

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,958 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $760/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $1,453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,119

Max offer price $144,990

Occupancy floor 46%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,535	-5% $1,494	+0% $1,453	+5% $1,412	+10% $1,371
Rent	-10% $1,219	-5% $1,336	+0% $1,453	+5% $1,569	+10% $1,686
Rate	-1.0pp $1,526	-0.5pp $1,490	base $1,453	+0.5pp $1,415	+1.0pp $1,377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,248
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1605 Ivy Dr Dothan, AL	3.0	2.0	1888	$3,400	$1.80	44d	1	0.14mi
306 Hidden Creek Cir #1 Dothan, AL	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,450	$1.18	44d	1	0.30mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-11-30
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-03
   listed $144,990 Active
3. 2020-05-11
   soldstatus $171,000
4. 2020-05-08
   soldstatus $171,000 241-char remark

   Show marketing remark (241 chars)

   Large lot in Lakewood. All brick home features open floor plan with kitchen, living area, and breakfast area open. Home has 4 bedroom, 2 bath home. Fireplace in family room. Fenced Backyard. Home has walk in closet, and mud room for storage.

5. 2016-07-18
   soldstatus $157,000
6. 2016-07-13
   soldstatus $157,000 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Great home with lots of room and extras, completely updated! Whole interior has recently been repainted. nice family room w fpl that opens to spacious breakfast area. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances and new countertops. All bedrooms are huge with nice size closets. Backyard has a pool fenced in with a beautiful iron and brick fence. Awesome view of the lake. Pool has new liner and filter (this year). roof and heat pump 4 years old. 22x22 workshop with electricity.

7. 2016-03-03
   listed $159,900 477-char remark

   Show marketing remark (477 chars)

   Great home with lots of room and extras, completely updated! Whole interior has recently been repainted. nice family room w fpl that opens to spacious breakfast area. Kitchen has stainless steel appliances and new countertops. All bedrooms are huge with nice size closets. Backyard has a pool fenced in with a beautiful iron and brick fence. Awesome view of the lake. Pool has new liner and filter (this year). roof and heat pump 4 years old. 22x22 workshop with electricity.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $760 · $63/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,495
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$760
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,840
• − Management: −$2,840
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $15,991
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,838
• After-tax cash flow: $13,594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dothan City
• NCES district ID: 0101230
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,279
• Composite: 24.56/100
• National rank: #7640
• State rank: #73 of 129 in AL

Livability — Dothan

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #146
• US rank: #13662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dothan, AL
• City population: 47,783
• Population (ZIP): 38,627

Population outlook (Houston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 110,280 people
• By 2030: 112,668 · +2.2%
• By 2040: 116,149 · +5.3%
• By 2050: 117,805 · +6.8%
• By 2075: 118,577 · +7.5%
• By 2100: 110,940 · +0.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Houston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.7% · R 73.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -40.8pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+47.6 2012: R+40.3 2008: R+40.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.46%
• Current HPI: 161.1212
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-9.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-30 Pending — LCMLS
• 2025-11-03 Listed $144,990 LCMLS
• 2020-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $171,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-08 Sold (MLS) $171,000 SAMLS
• 2016-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $157,000 Public Records
• 2016-07-13 Sold (MLS) $157,000 SAMLS
• 2016-03-03 Listed $159,900 SAMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $760 · +4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.