1019 Stanford Dr #26 · Cosmopolis, WA 98537

$154,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 88 Days on market

Built 1998 $130/sqft · 17% below area Est $211k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Harbor Estates! Beautiful double wide 3 bedrooms, 2 baths with skirting, on a large corner lot. Flooring and Kitchen Cabinets have been updated 3+ years ago, Eat-in kitchen, gas range, and dishwasher (newer). Large Living room with Vaulted Ceilings and Vinyl Plank Flooring / Carpet Throughout. Primary suite comes with Walk-in Closet, Roomy soak tub, and linen closet. Utility room with lots of storage (w/ d stays). Patio with Propane hookup for BBQ, fire pit, and Covered Deck for more entertaining. Carport, with storage shed, Private well for lawn and car washing. Lot backs up to the Community Common Area. This is a must see.

Key facts

• Large corner lot
• Newer dishwasher
• Updated flooring

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• UPDATED FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• GAS RANGE
• NEWER DISHWASHER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($361/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $125k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#78 in WA, #1,457 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F.
• Cosmopolis School District (town): math 40% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #145 of 291 in WA (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $125,000 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.83%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,855
• List price: $154,900
• Delta: -26.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1019 Stanford Dr #38	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,232 (+4%)	7mo	$134,500	$109	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-23,235
• Equity at exit: $23,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-17,970
• Equity at exit: $13,393

Cash invested: $43,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98537

• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$812
• Tax from tax record: −$81 /mo · $967/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,212

Max offer price $154,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,725
• Closing costs: $4,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1731 S Boone St Unit 303 Aberdeen, WA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	43d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $154,900 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,900 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,900 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,900 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,900 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $154,900 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $154,900 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $154,900 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $159,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $159,900 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $159,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $159,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-03-23
    listed $159,900 Active
17. 2022-10-07
    soldstatus $159,900 Closed
18. 2022-08-31
    status Pending
19. 2022-08-22
    listed $159,900 Active
20. 2008-06-23
    soldstatus $32,500
21. 2008-06-16
    historical
22. 2008-03-20
    listed $36,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $967 · $81/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,518 · $127/mo
• Expected delta: +$551/yr (+$46/mo · 57.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥78°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,677
• − Property taxes: −$967
• − Insurance: −$774
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,506
• Taxable loss: −$2,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$558
• After-tax cash flow: $919/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cosmopolis School District
• NCES district ID: 5301710
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,080
• Composite: 44.96/100
• National rank: #5875
• State rank: #145 of 291 in WA

Livability — Cosmopolis

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #1457

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cosmopolis, WA
• Population (ZIP): 2,902

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · South Korea, China, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -126.85%
• Current HPI: 212.185
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+338.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $159,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-07 Sold (MLS) $159,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-31 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-22 Listed $159,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-23 Sold (MLS) $32,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-16 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-20 Listed $36,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $967 · -6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.