19794 N 264th Ave · Buckeye, AZ 85396

$340,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,494 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2013 5,476 sqft lot $228/sqft · 8% below area Est $368k · 8% under $175/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover easy, low maintenance living in Sun City Festival! This well kept single story home offers an open and functional layout with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, plus a versatile den, perfect for a home office or hobby space. Enjoy peace of mind with owned solar, helping to offset costs year round. Inside, you will find tile flooring in the main living areas and comfortable carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen features a gas range, granite countertops, and upgraded cabinetry, opening seamlessly to the main living space, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Plantation shutters throughout add both style and privacy. The owner's suite offers a bright and inviting space with a bay window that fills the room with natural light, along with a walk in shower and a walk in closet designed everyday comfort. Located just steps from the community recreation center, you will enjoy convenient access to the pool, tennis and pickleball courts, and on site dining. This home offers a relaxed, low maintenance lifestyle with a variety of amenities right outside your door.

Key facts

• 5,476 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-281 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (14.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $254k (25.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $254k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.1% in Buckeye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#53 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 939 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($330k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 4→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,610 (25.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.54%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $368,038
• List price: $340,000
• Delta: -7.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19794 N 264th Ave	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,494 (0%)	1mo	$340,000	$228	96
26485 W Pontiac Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,612 (+8%)	1mo	$445,000	$276	69
26494 W Sierra Pinta Dr	0.27mi	2/2.0	1,612 (+8%)	2mo	$370,000	$230	69
26320 W Potter Dr	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,493 (-0%)	2mo	$325,700	$218	66
26820 W Kerry Ln	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+5%)	0mo	$452,700	$288	58
26651 W Kimberly Way	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,574 (+5%)	3mo	$446,990	$284	57
20463 N 267th Ln	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,375 (-8%)	1mo	$275,000	$200	52
20289 N 268th Ave	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,612 (+8%)	2mo	$353,000	$219	51
26109 W Runion Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,625 (+9%)	3mo	$300,000	$185	49
26128 W Rosemonte Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,646 (+10%)	1mo	$389,000	$236	47
26851 W Piute Ave	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,659 (+11%)	2mo	$417,000	$251	46
26638 W Irma Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (-8%)	2mo	$375,000	$273	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-71,913
• Equity at exit: $50,695

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-81,288
• Equity at exit: $29,397

Cash invested: $95,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85396

• Home prices YoY: -18.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 939
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,536 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,783
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,213/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$533
• Net cashflow: $-281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,891

Max offer price $290,445

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,000
• Closing costs: $10,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
26182 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1625	$1,695	$1.04	3d	1	0.27mi
26087 W Tonto Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1625	$2,300	$1.42	44d	1	0.38mi
26731 W Pontiac Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1373	$1,475	$1.07	3d	1	0.51mi
26781 W Oraibi Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$2,000	$1.28	18d	1	0.53mi
20669 N 266th Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	24d	1	0.61mi
26477 W Ross Ave Buckeye, AZ	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,500	$1.09	44d	1	0.63mi
26881 W Utopia Rd Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1705	$3,500	$2.05	1d	1	0.67mi
26766 W Mohawk Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,500	$1.82	4d	1	0.69mi
18675 N 268th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1865	$1,799	$0.96	44d	1	0.82mi
26237 W Matthew Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1646	$3,500	$2.13	1d	1	0.83mi
20311 N 271st Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,000	$1.86	1d	1	0.96mi
27013 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$4,200	$2.61	44d	1	0.98mi
21605 N 261st Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1115	$2,000	$1.79	1d	1	1.18mi
27244 W Potter Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$3,500	$2.17	44d	1	1.23mi
27389 W Wahalla Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.5	1717	$3,500	$2.04	1d	1	1.24mi
26197 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,850	$2.07	10d	1	1.24mi
26197 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,900	$2.11	1d	1	1.24mi
26170 W Vista North Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1115	$3,300	$2.96	1d	1	1.28mi
26195 W Via del Sol Dr Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1493	$3,300	$2.21	1d	1	1.30mi
20602 N 274th Ave Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1561	$3,500	$2.24	15d	1	1.35mi
26208 W Tina Ln Buckeye, AZ	2.0	2.0	1612	$1,999	$1.24	13d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: gaspool

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-03
   historical Under Contract Accepting Backups 1079-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

   Discover easy, low maintenance living in Sun City Festival! This well kept single story home offers an open and functional layout with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, plus a versatile den, perfect for a home office or hobby space. Enjoy peace of mind with owned solar, helping to offset costs year round. Inside, you will find tile flooring in the main living areas and comfortable carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen features a gas range, granite countertops, and upgraded cabinetry, opening seamlessly to the main living space, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Plantation shutters throughout add both style and privacy. The owner's suite offers a bright and inviting space with a bay window that fills the room with natural light, along with a walk in shower and a walk in closet designed everyday comfort. Located just steps from the community recreation center, you will enjoy convenient access to the pool, tennis and pickleball courts, and on site dining. This home offers a relaxed, low maintenance lifestyle with a variety of amenities right outside your door.

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $340,000 Active 1079-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1079 chars)

   Discover easy, low maintenance living in Sun City Festival! This well kept single story home offers an open and functional layout with 2 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, plus a versatile den, perfect for a home office or hobby space. Enjoy peace of mind with owned solar, helping to offset costs year round. Inside, you will find tile flooring in the main living areas and comfortable carpet in the bedrooms. The kitchen features a gas range, granite countertops, and upgraded cabinetry, opening seamlessly to the main living space, ideal for everyday living and entertaining. Plantation shutters throughout add both style and privacy. The owner's suite offers a bright and inviting space with a bay window that fills the room with natural light, along with a walk in shower and a walk in closet designed everyday comfort. Located just steps from the community recreation center, you will enjoy convenient access to the pool, tennis and pickleball courts, and on site dining. This home offers a relaxed, low maintenance lifestyle with a variety of amenities right outside your door.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,213 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,244 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$31/yr (+$3/mo · 1.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 4 d/yr ≥111°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,433
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,045
• − Property taxes: −$2,213
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,435
• − Management: −$2,435
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$9,891
• Taxable loss: −$9,385
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,252
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,114/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Buckeye

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #53
• US rank: #9428

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buckeye, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 117,540
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,181
• Household income: $114,056
• Rent vs Own: 7.3% rent · 92.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 156.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 18% Black 4% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.97%
• Current HPI: 246.4705
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-03 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $340,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+18.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,213 · +10.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.