9430 Peridot Green Dr · Iowa Colony, TX 77583

$185,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,659 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2011 5,998 sqft lot Est $269k · 31% under $133/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New from LGI Homes: Beautiful new 1653 sq ft two-story home features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 baths. Kitchen features wood cabinets and black appliances. Additional features include raised six panel doors, brushed nickel hardware, upstairs utility room, large master bath with garden tub and separate shower. Sterling Lakes residents benefit exclusively from discounted bulk services, including internet, cable and home security monitoring along with a world class park, pool and splash pad

Key facts

• Gated community
• Highly rated schools
• Clubhouse

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• ON-SITE GUARD ACCESS
• COMMUNITY POOL
• BASKETBALL COURT
• CLUBHOUSE
• HIGHLY RATED SCHOOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association-managed pool
• HOA & community: Part of Sterling Lakes association; Annual association fee of $1,600 covering clubhouse and recreation facilities; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, fitness center, basketball court, gated/controlled access with guard

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2011; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Two additional bedrooms on second level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (gas)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $67 ($803/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Iowa Colony — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#757 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Iowa Colony H S (792 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1147 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.55%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,758
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9930 Opal Rock Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,659 (0%)	1mo	$235,000	$142	80
1950 Bending Green Dr Dr	0.40mi	3/2.5	1,690 (+2%)	7mo	$249,900	$148	72
9203 Waldrick Trace Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,634 (-2%)	1mo	$275,000	$168	71
1858 Opal Peach Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-4%)	7mo	$234,999	$147	67
2807 Nickel Canyon Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,591 (-4%)	3mo	$226,500	$142	65
9810 Garnet Falls Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,466 (-12%)	7mo	$237,000	$162	60
9822 Garnet Springs Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,879 (+13%)	1mo	$260,000	$138	58
8918 Ice Quartz Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,620 (-2%)	6mo	$303,900	$188	54
2238 Sterling Oaks Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,427 (-14%)	7mo	$239,900	$168	52
1822 Bending Green Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,834 (+10%)	5mo	$265,000	$144	51
8930 Ice Quartz Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,778 (+7%)	4mo	$313,900	$177	44
7723 Montana Ruby Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,822 (+10%)	8mo	$326,990	$179	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-31,296
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-43,456
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1147
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,363 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$620 /mo · $7,436/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$133
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,278

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $172	-5% $119	+0% $67	+5% $15	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-120	-5% $-26	+0% $67	+5% $160	+10% $254
Rate	-1.0pp $160	-0.5pp $114	base $67	+0.5pp $19	+1.0pp $-30

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9518 Peridot Green Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1593	$1,886	$1.18	23d	1	0.06mi
2510 Green Jasper Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1561	$2,375	$1.52	44d	1	0.66mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,700	$1.56	0d	6	0.68mi
10211 Alpine Lake Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1731	$2,469	$1.43	44d	7	0.68mi
9423 Grand Spark Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1999	$2,600	$1.30	44d	1	0.72mi
10203 Karsten Blvd Rosharon, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$2,061	$2.20	2d	138	0.79mi
1816 Corsica Creek Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1653	$2,306	$1.40	0d	20	0.86mi
2523 Topaz Hill Ln Rosharon, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1857	$2,425	$1.31	18d	1	0.90mi
10313 Malta Trace Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1802	$2,545	$1.41	44d	1	0.90mi
9901 Kilkenny St Iowa Colony, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1735	$2,186	$1.26	0d	1	1.08mi
1123 Diamond Drape Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,000	$1.08	13d	1	1.11mi
1014 Star Grass Ln Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	2067	$2,375	$1.15	44d	1	1.36mi
10610 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1548	$2,700	$1.74	44d	1	1.46mi
10622 Cascade Creek Dr Rosharon, TX	4.0	2.0	1780	$2,775	$1.56	44d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $133 · $1,596/yr
• Likely covers: internetcablepoolsecurity

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $185,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   price $185,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 681-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    listed $195,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,436 · $620/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,436 · $620/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 65% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,357
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$7,436
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,269
• − Management: −$2,269
• − HOA: −$1,596
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$1,882
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$452
• After-tax cash flow: $1,255/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Iowa Colony

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #757
• US rank: #13904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Iowa Colony, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 52,747
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+38.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2011-09-06 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2011-07-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2011-06-28 Listed $140,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,436 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.