5242 E Phelps Lake Dr · Nampa, ID 83687

$567,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,710 sqft · SingleFamily · 85 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 10,018 sqft lot Est $583k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Unlock your $25K now through May 31! Ask a Sales Specialist for details. Enter into a brand new home in Nampa, Idaho and enjoy its benefits and stress free living! The Sundance 2710 offers all the space you desire with a main level that showcases a modern kitchen, inviting dining room, and expansive living area designed for effortless gathering. The kitchen boasts upgraded finishes, including stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and stylish solid surface countertops. A well-placed bedroom on this level adds flexibility for hosting or creating a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, four additional bedrooms and a generous loft provide room to unwind, create, or spread out with ease. The primary suite serves as a serene retreat with an elegant en suite bath featuring a soothing soaker tub and an impressive closet. Bedrooms two, three, and four are thoughtfully arranged to enhance comfort and privacy, while the loft offers a versatile second living space, game area, or office. With its balanced design and elevated finishes, the Sundance 2710 delivers beauty, comfort, and functionality throughout. Photos are of the actual home!

Key facts

• Dining room
• Modern kitchen
• Gas range

Tags

• MODERN KITCHEN
• DINING ROOM
• EXPANSIVE LIVING AREA
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS RANGE
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: Spring Hollow Ranch; Directions: From Star and Cherry: N on Star, W on Open Canyon, N on Phelps Lake
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage; Three covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water service; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; New construction (builder: CBH Homes, year 2026)
• Construction: Frame and HardiPlank-type siding; Composition roof; Built in 2026
• Exterior features: Partial yard fencing; Sidewalks; Auto / pressurized irrigation sprinkler system (partial)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (approx. 12 x 15); Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Dishwasher; Gas range / oven; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on upper level (approx. 17 x 15); Bedroom 2 on upper level (approx. 15 x 11); Bedroom 3 on upper level (approx. 10 x 14); Bedroom 4 on upper level (approx. 12 x 12); Bedroom 5 on main level (approx. 10 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered vinyl plank
• Bathrooms: Three bathrooms total; Primary bathroom features include double vanity and en-suite bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bath in primary bedroom; Double vanity(s); Walk-in closet(s); Breakfast bar; Pantry; Kitchen island; Solid surface countertops; Gas fireplace with insert (one)
• Laundry & utility: Utility / laundry room on main level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $568k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $546k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $534k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Nampa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Vallivue School District (rural): math 34% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #48 of 92 in ID (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Desert Springs Elementary School (math 46% / reading 50%, grade D, #174 of 357 statewide, top 49%, 667 students, 39% FRL); Ridgevue High School (math 27% / reading 67%, grade D-, #55 of 169 statewide, top 34%, 1,578 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 35% FRL vs 52% district-wide (17 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 631 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,456/mo this rent would consume 85% of the median local household income ($77k/yr) (locally 683% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $17k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($534k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $533,910 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $582,650
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5086 E Open Canyon Dr	0.10mi	5/3.0	2,636 (-3%)	0mo	$539,990	$205	89
17749 N Hugh Glass Way	0.10mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,626 (-3%)	2mo	$544,990	$208	84
17776 N Hugh Glass Way	0.10mi	5/3.0	2,530 (-7%)	2mo	$534,990	$211	81
17649 N Boone Peak Ave	0.17mi	5/3.0	2,530 (-7%)	1mo	$530,990	$210	78
17762 N Hugh Glass Way	0.10mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,539 (-6%)	3mo	$529,990	$209	76
17662 N Boone Peak Ave	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,539 (-6%)	1mo	$554,990	$219	72
4629 E Coldwater Dr	0.65mi	5/3.0	2,733 (+1%)	3mo	$699,000	$256	64
17443 N Owl Peak Ave	0.29mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,399 (-12%)	3mo	$465,000	$194	60
17648 N Boone Peak Ave	0.20mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,351 (-13%)	2mo	$519,990	$221	60
17142 N Romford Ave	0.67mi	5/3.5	3,004 (+11%)	1mo	$645,000	$215	46
4656 E Coldwater Dr	0.61mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,406 (-11%)	3mo	$599,000	$249	44
4684 E Coldwater Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,054 (+13%)	4mo	$689,000	$226	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-68,397
• Equity at exit: $84,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-21,875
• Equity at exit: $49,109

Cash invested: $159,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83687

• Home prices YoY: -21.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 631
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,456 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,979
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$710 /mo · $8,520/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,146
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,037

Max offer price $567,990

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $141,998
• Closing costs: $17,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5126 E Sylvan Hart Dr Unit 1322143P Nampa, ID	5.0	2.5	2992	$6,692	$2.24	14d	1	0.11mi
5302 E Burnte Peak St Unit 1322141P Nampa, ID	6.0	2.5	2992	$7,109	$2.38	3d	1	0.27mi
7003 W Redwood Creek Dr Meridian, ID	4.0	2.0	2025	$2,650	$1.31	14d	1	1.25mi
6976 W Redwood Creek Dr Unit 1250676P Meridian, ID	6.0	2.5	2798	$6,937	$2.48	3d	1	1.28mi
6960 W Redwood Creek Dr Unit 1250677P Meridian, ID	5.0	2.5	2798	$6,915	$2.47	14d	1	1.28mi
4289 N Glassford Ave Unit 1250678P Meridian, ID	4.0	2.0	2195	$5,366	$2.44	11d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $567,990 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $567,990 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $567,990 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $567,990 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $567,990 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $567,990 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $567,990 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $567,990 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $567,990 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $567,990 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $567,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $567,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $567,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $567,990 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    listed $567,990 Active 1138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1138 chars)

    Unlock your $25K now through May 31! Ask a Sales Specialist for details. Enter into a brand new home in Nampa, Idaho and enjoy its benefits and stress free living! The Sundance 2710 offers all the space you desire with a main level that showcases a modern kitchen, inviting dining room, and expansive living area designed for effortless gathering. The kitchen boasts upgraded finishes, including stainless steel appliances, a gas range, and stylish solid surface countertops. A well-placed bedroom on this level adds flexibility for hosting or creating a dedicated workspace. Upstairs, four additional bedrooms and a generous loft provide room to unwind, create, or spread out with ease. The primary suite serves as a serene retreat with an elegant en suite bath featuring a soothing soaker tub and an impressive closet. Bedrooms two, three, and four are thoughtfully arranged to enhance comfort and privacy, while the loft offers a versatile second living space, game area, or office. With its balanced design and elevated finishes, the Sundance 2710 delivers beauty, comfort, and functionality throughout. Photos are of the actual home!

16. 2026-03-25
    price $567,990
17. 2026-03-25
    listed $453,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $65,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,816
• − Property taxes: −$8,520
• − Insurance: −$2,840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,238
• − Management: −$5,238
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$16,523
• Taxable loss: −$5,347
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,283
• After-tax cash flow: $5,259/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern kitchen, good exterior, and minimal maintenance needs. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some interior updates to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring in select rooms — Fresh paint and updated flooring can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances to high-end models — High-end appliances can significantly increase the home's value and attract more buyers.
• Rental Adding a smart home system for energy efficiency and convenience — Smart home systems can attract renters who prioritize energy efficiency and modern technology.
• Both Landscaping the front yard with a more attractive design — A well-designed front yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract both buyers and renters.
• Both Installing a smart thermostat and smart lighting system — These systems can improve energy efficiency and convenience, making the home more attractive to both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the interior walls and updating the flooring in select rooms — Fresh paint and updated flooring can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances to high-end models — High-end appliances can significantly increase the home's value and attract more buyers. ↑
• Rental Adding a smart home system for energy efficiency and convenience — Smart home systems can attract renters who prioritize energy efficiency and modern technology. ↑
• Both Landscaping the front yard with a more attractive design — A well-designed front yard can enhance the home's curb appeal and attract both buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Installing a smart thermostat and smart lighting system — These systems can improve energy efficiency and convenience, making the home more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vallivue School District
• NCES district ID: 1600600
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,377
• Composite: 38.3/100
• National rank: #4229
• State rank: #48 of 92 in ID

Livability — Nampa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #6250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nampa, ID
• County: Canyon County · 235,358 people
• City population: 142,249
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• Population (ZIP): 43,135
• Household income: $76,682
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 683.0

Population outlook (Canyon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 269,596 · +8.3%
• By 2040: 311,081 · +25.0%
• By 2050: 350,809 · +41.0%
• By 2075: 441,884 · +77.6%
• By 2100: 505,641 · +103.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 12% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Canyon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.6) · D 25.4% · R 72.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: -35.2pp · 2024: -46.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.6 2020: R+39.7 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+37.1 2008: R+35.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.50%
• Current HPI: 388.8148
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.44%
• Metro: Boise City, ID
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

+25.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Listed $567,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $567,990 IMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $453,990 IMLS