2923 Lavell Ave · Wichita Falls, TX 76308

$119,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 992 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1980 $120/sqft · at area comps Est $117k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute house with a covered patio, rv/boat/vehicle parking in back of property. Property has a privacy fence for enjoying a quiet evening on the patio. Extra room off of kitchen could be a second living room or 3rd bedroom. Home comes with a washer/dryer.

Key facts

• Rv parking
• Extra room
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• RV PARKING
• PRIVACY FENCE
• EXTRA ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2 ($20/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $112k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.7% in Wichita Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
• Wichita Falls ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #585 of 826 in TX (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 231 units permitted in Wichita County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wichita County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,330 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.06%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $116,665
• List price: $119,500
• Delta: 2.43%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2944 Lavell Ave	0.10mi	2/1.0	961 (-3%)	15mo	$100,000	$104	78

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-18,292
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-11,770
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76308

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,779/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $2

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,149

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $35	+0% $2	+5% $-32	+10% $-66
Rent	-10% $-89	-5% $-44	+0% $2	+5% $47	+10% $93
Rate	-1.0pp $62	-0.5pp $32	base $2	+0.5pp $-29	+1.0pp $-61

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4111 McGaha Ave Wichita Falls, TX	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,125	$1.10	44d	1	0.61mi
4110 Faith Rd Apt 11 Wichita Falls, TX	1.0	1.0	695	$800	$1.15	44d	1	0.68mi
4110 Faith Rd Wichita Falls, TX	1.0	1.0	695	$850	$1.22	44d	1	0.68mi
2612 Southwest Pkwy Wichita Falls, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,250	$1.27	44d	23	0.72mi
5021 Taft Blvd Wichita Falls, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1236	$1,548	$1.25	44d	8	1.04mi
4611 Taft Blvd Wichita Falls, TX	2.0	2.0	952	$735	$0.77	44d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,500 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,500 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,500 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,500 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,500 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,500 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,500 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,500 Active 68 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,500 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,500 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,500 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,500 Active 62 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,500 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,500 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,500 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,500 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-14
    price $119,500 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Cute house with a covered patio, rv/boat/vehicle parking in back of property. Property has a privacy fence for enjoying a quiet evening on the patio. Extra room off of kitchen could be a second living room or 3rd bedroom. Home comes with a washer/dryer.

18. 2026-04-03
    listed $124,500 Active 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    Cute house with a covered patio, rv/boat/vehicle parking in back of property. Property has a privacy fence for enjoying a quiet evening on the patio. Extra room off of kitchen could be a second living room or 3rd bedroom. Home comes with a washer/dryer.

19. 2021-08-16
    soldstatus
20. 2021-08-12
    soldstatus 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Cute well maintained house in great neighborhood. Extra room off kitchen could be 2nd living area or 3rd bedroom. Fresh paint, Privacy fenced yard, covered patio, large driveway in back w/ carport. Enough space to park RV & cars. A must see.

21. 2021-06-07
    listed $109,900 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Cute well maintained house in great neighborhood. Extra room off kitchen could be 2nd living area or 3rd bedroom. Fresh paint, Privacy fenced yard, covered patio, large driveway in back w/ carport. Enough space to park RV & cars. A must see.

22. 2016-07-06
    soldstatus
23. 2016-07-06
    soldstatus
24. 2015-09-04
    listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,779 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,779 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,818
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$2,779
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,105
• − Management: −$1,105
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable loss: −$1,939
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$465
• After-tax cash flow: $485/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wichita Falls ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845780
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $41,604
• Composite: 27.06/100
• National rank: #7051
• State rank: #585 of 826 in TX

Livability — Wichita Falls

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #8940

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wichita Falls, TX
• County: Wichita County · 95,694 people
• City population: 95,694
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,896
• Household income: $74,772
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 708.0

Population outlook (Wichita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 129,638 people
• By 2030: 128,366 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 124,466 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 120,499 · -7.0%
• By 2075: 113,884 · -12.2%
• By 2100: 101,818 · -21.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wichita

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.0) · D 27.5% · R 71.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.2pp toward R · 2008: -38.9pp · 2024: -44.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.0 2020: R+41.1 2016: R+49.7 2012: R+47.1 2008: R+38.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.47%
• Current HPI: 177.1989
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.77%
• Metro: Wichita Falls, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+99.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $119,500 WFAOR
• 2026-04-03 Listed $124,500 WFAOR
• 2021-08-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-08-12 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2021-06-07 Listed $109,900 WFAOR
• 2016-07-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-07-06 Sold (MLS) — WFAOR
• 2015-09-04 Listed $60,000 WFAOR

Property tax history

+7.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,779 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.