2359 Bexley Dr · Tavares, FL 32778

$283,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,543 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 2017 5,500 sqft lot Est $349k · 19% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under construction. The Bokeelia floor plan by LGI Homes is located in the beautiful community of Chelsea Oaks South. This spacious one-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and is 1,540 square feet with a 2 car garage. Included in this beautiful new home, are new energy efficient appliances, custom cabinets, a landscaped front yard and a homeowner Warranty. Chelsea Oaks South offers a small town atmosphere, surrounded by conservation areas and lakes, all within a short distance from downtown Orlando. This perfect location, combined with countless recreational activities within the community, makes it a family-friendly and exciting place to support an active and healthy lifestyle.

Key facts

• 5,500 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2017

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Leland Management, Inc.); HOA fee $475 annually (approx. $39.58/month); Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Water service available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces south
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.13-acre lot
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Electric water heater; Other appliances
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Security system (owned)
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tavares Elementary School (math 49% / reading 45%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 875 students, 61% FRL); Tavares Middle School (math 43% / reading 40%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 1,070 students, 58% FRL); Tavares High School (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,507 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $189k; 50% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $224,530 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $348,718
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2395 Bracknell Forest Trl	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,543 (0%)	1mo	$295,000	$191	92
2191 Bexley Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+3%)	19mo	$325,000	$204	70
32580 Lakeshore Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+0%)	14mo	$350,000	$226	58
1200 Kellogg Dr	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,617 (+5%)	14mo	$370,000	$229	46
422 Oak View Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,644 (+6%)	18mo	$389,000	$237	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-49,491
• Equity at exit: $42,196

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-40,867
• Equity at exit: $24,469

Cash invested: $79,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,726/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,365

Max offer price $266,332

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $66	-5% $-14	+0% $-94	+5% $-174	+10% $-255
Rent	-10% $-272	-5% $-183	+0% $-94	+5% $-6	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $-22	base $-94	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,750
• Closing costs: $8,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2551 Bracknell Forest Trl Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,081	$1.40	18d	1	0.07mi
2533 Bracknell Forest Trl Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1483	$2,100	$1.42	4d	1	0.08mi
2741 Grand Central Ave Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,201	$1.30	0d	1	0.17mi
2296 Bracknell Forest Trl Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1900	$2,220	$1.17	0d	1	0.29mi
2213 Merry Rd Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1596	$1,990	$1.25	5d	1	0.54mi
1792 Henin Cir Tavares, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,100	$1.15	25d	1	0.54mi
1108 Longville Cir Tavares, FL	3.0	2.0	1585	$2,150	$1.36	6d	1	0.64mi
1224 Kellogg Dr Tavares, FL	4.0	2.0	2129	$2,345	$1.10	25d	1	0.70mi
4255 Wee St Unit 4255 Mt Dora, FL	3.0	1.0	1828	$1,800	$0.98	16d	1	0.88mi
1147 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,345	$1.10	25d	3	1.01mi
1129 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,295	$1.07	25d	1	1.02mi
1111 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,295	$1.07	25d	1	1.03mi
1075 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,395	$1.12	25d	1	1.06mi
1057 E Caroline St Unit 31 Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,295	$1.07	25d	1	1.07mi
1019 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	3.0	2.5	2139	$2,395	$1.12	25d	1	1.10mi
1003 Dora Ave Tavares, FL	3.0	3.5	1680	$2,400	$1.43	16d	1	1.14mi
1003 Dora Ave Unit A Tavares, FL	3.0	3.5	1788	$2,400	$1.34	25d	1	1.14mi
807 McLain Ct Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	18d	1	1.24mi
1090 Emerald Dr Mount Dora, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,625	$1.23	23d	1	1.32mi
3550 Lake Center Dr Mount Dora, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1026	$1,899	$1.85	4d	26	1.35mi
4021 Lake Saunders Dr Mount Dora, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	0d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $283,000 Pending 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,000 Active 77 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $283,000 Active 69 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $283,000 Active 66 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $288,000 Active 65 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $288,000 Active 64 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $288,000 Active 63 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $288,000 Active 62 DOM
12. 2026-04-30
    price $288,000
13. 2026-04-16
    price $294,000
14. 2026-03-30
    listed $303,000 Active
15. 2017-12-29
    soldstatus $188,900 Sold 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Under construction. The Bokeelia floor plan by LGI Homes is located in the beautiful community of Chelsea Oaks South. This spacious one-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and is 1,540 square feet with a 2 car garage. Included in this beautiful new home, are new energy efficient appliances, custom cabinets, a landscaped front yard and a homeowner Warranty. Chelsea Oaks South offers a small town atmosphere, surrounded by conservation areas and lakes, all within a short distance from downtown Orlando. This perfect location, combined with countless recreational activities within the community, makes it a family-friendly and exciting place to support an active and healthy lifestyle.

16. 2017-12-20
    status Pending 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Under construction. The Bokeelia floor plan by LGI Homes is located in the beautiful community of Chelsea Oaks South. This spacious one-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and is 1,540 square feet with a 2 car garage. Included in this beautiful new home, are new energy efficient appliances, custom cabinets, a landscaped front yard and a homeowner Warranty. Chelsea Oaks South offers a small town atmosphere, surrounded by conservation areas and lakes, all within a short distance from downtown Orlando. This perfect location, combined with countless recreational activities within the community, makes it a family-friendly and exciting place to support an active and healthy lifestyle.

17. 2017-12-20
    listed $188,900 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Under construction. The Bokeelia floor plan by LGI Homes is located in the beautiful community of Chelsea Oaks South. This spacious one-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and is 1,540 square feet with a 2 car garage. Included in this beautiful new home, are new energy efficient appliances, custom cabinets, a landscaped front yard and a homeowner Warranty. Chelsea Oaks South offers a small town atmosphere, surrounded by conservation areas and lakes, all within a short distance from downtown Orlando. This perfect location, combined with countless recreational activities within the community, makes it a family-friendly and exciting place to support an active and healthy lifestyle.

18. 2017-11-06
    status Pending
19. 2017-11-04
    historical
20. 2017-11-02
    listed $188,900 Active
21. 2016-04-04
    soldstatus $575,600
22. 2014-08-11
    soldstatus $2,580,600
23. 2009-01-29
    soldstatus $1,190,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,726 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,726 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,852
• − Property taxes: −$2,726
• − Insurance: −$1,415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$8,233
• Taxable loss: −$6,061
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,455
• After-tax cash flow: $322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-75.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $288,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $294,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Listed $303,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-29 Sold (MLS) $188,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-20 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-12-20 Listed $188,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-04 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-02 Listed $188,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $575,600 Public Records
• 2014-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $2,580,600 Public Records
• 2009-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $1,190,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+25.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,726 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.