626 S 1st St · Chariton, IA 50049

$90,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,238 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 122 Days on market

Built 1900 0.34 ac lot Est $141k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This character-filled 1.5-story home in Chariton offers 4 bedrooms upstairs, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car detached garage, and a deck with a spacious and secluded backyard to enjoy. All appliances remain with the property; stackable washer and dryer is located on the main floor with additional hookups for washer and dryer in basement as well. This house used to be a duplex and has been converted to a single family home, therefore has two staircases on both sides of the living room and a small hallway connecting upstairs bedrooms. Home has a full and well-maintained concrete block basement. The garage was built in 1995 and has an upper level that was designed to be a usable small workshop space. Pro

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Converted duplex
• Two staircases

Tags

• DETACHED GARAGE
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• CONVERTED DUPLEX
• TWO STAIRCASES
• USABLE WORKSHOP SPACE
• WELL-MAINTAINED BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $401 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 4.1% in Chariton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in IA, #1,703 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Chariton Community School District (town): math 57% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #241 of 289 in IA (top 83%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Columbus Elementary School (284 students, 58% FRL); Chariton Middle School (math 63% / reading 70%, grade A-, #148 of 246 statewide, top 61%, 285 students, 56% FRL); Chariton High School (math 57% / reading 73%, grade B, #208 of 336 statewide, top 62%, 392 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 3 units permitted in Lucas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lucas County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.11%
• DSCR: 1.85
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $141,132
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
626 S 1st St	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,238 (0%)	1mo	$77,000	$62	99
456 S 8th Street St	0.60mi	4/2.5	1,409 (+14%)	14mo	$160,000	$114	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $10,988
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $42,527
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50049

• Home prices YoY: -4.4%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,279 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,196/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $401

Break-even live

Break-even rent $771

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $452	-5% $427	+0% $401	+5% $376	+10% $350
Rent	-10% $300	-5% $351	+0% $401	+5% $452	+10% $502
Rate	-1.0pp $447	-0.5pp $424	base $401	+0.5pp $378	+1.0pp $354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-06
   listed $90,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,196 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,304 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$108/yr (+$9/mo · 9.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$1,196
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,228
• − Management: −$1,228
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,587
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$861
• After-tax cash flow: $3,955/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chariton Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1907050
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $44,415
• Composite: 51.35/100
• National rank: #1738
• State rank: #241 of 289 in IA

Livability — Chariton

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1703

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chariton, IA
• Population (ZIP): 6,425

Population outlook (Lucas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,106 people
• By 2030: 7,755 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 7,007 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 6,265 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 4,926 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 3,792 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lucas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.1) · D 25.2% · R 73.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.7pp · 2024: -48.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.1 2020: R+43.3 2016: R+38.1 2012: R+6.3 2008: R+6.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -10.20%
• Current HPI: 220.0223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — IAR
• 2025-12-06 Listed $90,000 IAR

Property tax history

-0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,196 · -5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.