306 W Park St · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$280,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,672 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2015 9,148 sqft lot $167/sqft · 34% below area Est $424k · 34% under ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a prime location with easy access to Downtown Fredericksburg's shopping, dining, wine tasting, schools and medical facilities. This 2 story home features a large living area 1/2 bath and large kitchen with Granite Countertops and plenty of storage. Upstairs are 3 bedrooms, full bath and laundry room. Home backs up to Town Creek giving it backyard privacy.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Large living area
• Plenty of storage

Tags

• PRIME LOCATION
• EASY ACCESS
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• LARGE KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• PLENTY OF STORAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($176/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 1.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 977 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 55% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,369 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.22%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $423,908
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -33.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
122 Lilli's Ln	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-1%)	5mo	$349,950	$212	61
100 Ellendale Pl	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (-0%)	6mo	$314,999	$189	61
502 Saint Marys St	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,914 (+14%)	10mo	$625,000	$327	61
118 Lilli's Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,703 (+2%)	6mo	$362,950	$213	54
712 Wedgewood Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,841 (+10%)	2mo	$455,000	$247	54
510 Mueller St #16	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,760 (+5%)	1mo	$420,000	$239	50
119 W Creek St	0.34mi	3/4.0	1,468 (-12%)	10mo	$675,000	$460	44
111 Darby Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-12%)	13mo	$307,999	$209	40
107 Darby Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-12%)	13mo	$287,999	$195	38
101 Darby Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-12%)	14mo	$310,999	$211	37
130 Lilli's Ln	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,901 (+14%)	4mo	$370,950	$195	37
114 Lilli's Ln	0.62mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,901 (+14%)	4mo	$370,950	$195	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-44,464
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-37,618
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 977
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$252 /mo · $3,022/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,325

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $94	+0% $15	+5% $-65	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-78	+0% $15	+5% $107	+10% $200
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $86	base $15	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
422 S Orange St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	1.0	1732	$2,250	$1.30	21d	1	0.14mi
619 W Live Oak St Fredericksburg, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$1,899	$2.16	2d	10	0.44mi
202 E Ufer St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,355	$2.37	2d	11	0.50mi
509 W Creek St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1576	$1,750	$1.11	25d	1	0.52mi
405 Summit Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	44d	1	0.57mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,895	$1.32	25d	1	0.62mi
1004 E Hill St Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	25d	1	0.64mi
712 Englemann Oak Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,650	$1.75	18d	1	0.86mi
713 Englemann Oak Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,850	$1.91	44d	1	0.89mi
104 N Elk St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,000	$1.23	12d	1	0.95mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,950	$2.21	44d	1	1.30mi
501 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	44d	1	1.30mi
915 E Highway St Unit NA Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,950	$1.39	5d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $280,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $280,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $280,000 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $280,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $280,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $280,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $280,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $280,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    listed $280,000 Active 368-char remark

    Show marketing remark (368 chars)

    Nestled in a prime location with easy access to Downtown Fredericksburg's shopping, dining, wine tasting, schools and medical facilities. This 2 story home features a large living area 1/2 bath and large kitchen with Granite Countertops and plenty of storage. Upstairs are 3 bedrooms, full bath and laundry room. Home backs up to Town Creek giving it backyard privacy.

16. 2026-02-01
    price $280,000
17. 2025-12-10
    listed $290,000 Active
18. 1998-08-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,022 · $252/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,124 · $427/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,102/yr (+$175/mo · 69.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 55% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,124
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$3,022
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,628
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,111
• After-tax cash flow: $1,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 23,741 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 470.0

Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Listed $280,000 CHCMLS
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $280,000 CHCMLS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $290,000 CHCMLS
• 1998-08-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+23.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,022 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.