4811 Hawthorne St · Pasadena, TX 77586

$239,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,427 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1995 5,000 sqft lot Est $245k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lovely 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, single-story home featuring an attached 2-car garage! Upon entering this home is a large den, then the living room with a fireplace and the kitchen with a breakfast bar and breakfast nook. The primary bedroom includes the primary bathroom and a walk-in closet. The two secondary bedrooms, secondary bathroom and laundry room make up the rest of the home while the fenced in backyard offers green space. This home is minutes away from beaches along Trinity Bay!

Key facts

• No hoa restrictions
• Large walk-in closet
• Granite countertops

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• NO HISTORY OF FLOODING
• NO HOA RESTRICTIONS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease consideration

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry on slab foundation; Faces unspecified
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Built in 1995; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Fireplace; 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-126 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $218k (9.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.4% in Pasadena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#600 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Clear Creek ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #114 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Seabrook Int (math 53% / reading 57%, grade B-, #248 of 1,662 statewide, top 15%, 963 students, 30% FRL); Clear Falls H S (math 49% / reading 64%, grade C, #357 of 1,632 statewide, top 22%, 2,473 students, 0% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.9%/yr); 326 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($236k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $207,481 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.06%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,444
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4704 Donald St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,541 (+8%)	1mo	$339,000	$220	80
4707 Elm St	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,453 (+2%)	12mo	$365,000	$251	78
5004 Donald St	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,492 (+5%)	8mo	$265,000	$178	74
4713 Pine St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-10%)	4mo	$205,000	$159	70
4917 Louise St	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,540 (+8%)	1mo	$250,000	$162	70
4831 Donald St	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+12%)	2mo	$250,000	$156	69
4705 Pine St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-14%)	0mo	$214,900	$175	66
4710 Pine St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-14%)	0mo	$199,900	$163	66
4717 Pine St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-11%)	16mo	$220,000	$172	59
5119 Charles St	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,583 (+11%)	4mo	$300,000	$190	57
4814 Pine St	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-14%)	13mo	$204,900	$167	56
4823 Caroline St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,220 (-14%)	17mo	$175,000	$143	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.86% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-42,827
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-30,348
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77586

• Rents YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 326
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,075 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,084/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,234

Max offer price $217,699

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $239,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $244,900 Active 28 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $244,900 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $244,900 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $244,900 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $244,900 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $244,900 Active 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $244,900 Active 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $244,900 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $244,900 Active 14 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $244,900 Active 13 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $244,900 Active 12 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $244,900 Active 11 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $244,900 Active 10 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $244,900 Active
17. 2022-11-13
    historical
18. 2022-02-09
    soldstatus
19. 2022-02-08
    soldstatus Sold 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Lovely 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, single-story home featuring an attached 2-car garage! Upon entering this home is a large den, then the living room with a fireplace and the kitchen with a breakfast bar and breakfast nook. The primary bedroom includes the primary bathroom and a walk-in closet. The two secondary bedrooms, secondary bathroom and laundry room make up the rest of the home while the fenced in backyard offers green space. This home is minutes away from beaches along Trinity Bay!

20. 2022-01-30
    status Pending 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Lovely 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, single-story home featuring an attached 2-car garage! Upon entering this home is a large den, then the living room with a fireplace and the kitchen with a breakfast bar and breakfast nook. The primary bedroom includes the primary bathroom and a walk-in closet. The two secondary bedrooms, secondary bathroom and laundry room make up the rest of the home while the fenced in backyard offers green space. This home is minutes away from beaches along Trinity Bay!

21. 2022-01-18
    status Option Pending 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Lovely 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, single-story home featuring an attached 2-car garage! Upon entering this home is a large den, then the living room with a fireplace and the kitchen with a breakfast bar and breakfast nook. The primary bedroom includes the primary bathroom and a walk-in closet. The two secondary bedrooms, secondary bathroom and laundry room make up the rest of the home while the fenced in backyard offers green space. This home is minutes away from beaches along Trinity Bay!

22. 2022-01-10
    listed $218,100 Active 490-char remark

    Show marketing remark (490 chars)

    Lovely 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom, single-story home featuring an attached 2-car garage! Upon entering this home is a large den, then the living room with a fireplace and the kitchen with a breakfast bar and breakfast nook. The primary bedroom includes the primary bathroom and a walk-in closet. The two secondary bedrooms, secondary bathroom and laundry room make up the rest of the home while the fenced in backyard offers green space. This home is minutes away from beaches along Trinity Bay!

23. 2021-10-07
    soldstatus
24. 2014-11-24
    historical 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Home needs work but could be a great opportunity for someone ready to put in some extra work. Conveniently located near 146 and short drive to Kemah, TX. Home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and an open concept living/kitchen. Also features an enclosed bonus room that allows for easy access to the backyard.

25. 2014-11-24
    soldstatus Sold 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Home needs work but could be a great opportunity for someone ready to put in some extra work. Conveniently located near 146 and short drive to Kemah, TX. Home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and an open concept living/kitchen. Also features an enclosed bonus room that allows for easy access to the backyard.

26. 2014-11-17
    status Pending 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Home needs work but could be a great opportunity for someone ready to put in some extra work. Conveniently located near 146 and short drive to Kemah, TX. Home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and an open concept living/kitchen. Also features an enclosed bonus room that allows for easy access to the backyard.

27. 2014-11-04
    status Pending, Continue to Show 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Home needs work but could be a great opportunity for someone ready to put in some extra work. Conveniently located near 146 and short drive to Kemah, TX. Home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and an open concept living/kitchen. Also features an enclosed bonus room that allows for easy access to the backyard.

28. 2014-09-30
    listed $109,900 Active 309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (309 chars)

    Home needs work but could be a great opportunity for someone ready to put in some extra work. Conveniently located near 146 and short drive to Kemah, TX. Home features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms and an open concept living/kitchen. Also features an enclosed bonus room that allows for easy access to the backyard.

29. 2006-12-12
    soldstatus
30. 2002-11-19
    soldstatus
31. 1995-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,084 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,390 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: +$307/yr (+$26/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,898
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$4,084
• − Insurance: −$1,997
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,992
• − Management: −$1,992
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$5,584
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,340
• After-tax cash flow: $-168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814280
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $80,240
• Composite: 46.49/100
• National rank: #2431
• State rank: #114 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pasadena

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #600
• US rank: #11438

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pasadena, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 109,190
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,807
• Household income: $114,057
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 616.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 10% Asian 5% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Italian 4% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 12% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.37%
• Current HPI: 228.2611
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.86%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+122.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $244,900 HARMLS
• 2022-11-13 Rental Removed — RENT.
• 2022-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-02-08 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2022-01-30 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2022-01-10 Listed $218,100 HARMLS
• 2021-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-11-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-11-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-11-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-11-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-09-30 Listed $109,900 HARMLS
• 2006-12-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,084 · -8.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.