Sedona Plan · Montgomery, TX 77356

$434,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,579 sqft · SingleFamily · 54 Days on market

Good condition Garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Cash flow +1.3/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Sedona by David Weekley Homes presents easy sophistication and streamlined versatility that makes it ideal for families whose lifestyle needs will change through the years. Treat yourself to the everyday delight of your Owner's Retreat, which features a fantastic en suite bathroom and a sizable walk-in closet. Sunshine spills into the open-concept living spaces through energy-efficient windows, highlighting your interior design style and making special occasions picture perfect. Enjoy your quiet and fun-filled leisure time from the shade of your covered porch. The full-function island at the center of the kitchen presents a cheerful spot to share party snacks and quick breakfasts.

Key facts

• En suite bathroom
• Covered porch
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• EN SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACES
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• COVERED PORCH
• FULL-FUNCTION ISLAND

🏗️ New construction. The $434,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $647,416.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $435k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (37.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (45.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (45.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.5% vs local median 2.5% in Montgomery — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#372 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Stewart Creek El (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C, #686 of 4,322 statewide, top 16%, 738 students, 46% FRL); Montgomery J H (math 68% / reading 54%, grade B+, #145 of 1,662 statewide, top 9%, 1,045 students, 30% FRL); Montgomery H S (math 53% / reading 62%, grade C, #327 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,556 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1575 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 66d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $19k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,673 (45.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.37% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.19%
• DSCR: 0.24
• GRM: 22.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $647,416
• List price: $434,990
• Delta: -32.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18848 Harbor Side Blvd	0.24mi	4/3.0	2,751 (+7%)	5mo	$824,900	$300	72
18854 Lake Terrace Dr	0.74mi	4/4.0	2,584 (+0%)	2mo	$579,900	$224	61
294 Peninsula Point Dr	0.97mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,485 (-4%)	4mo	$359,990	$145	51
503 Pine View Cir	0.90mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,494 (-3%)	2mo	$399,900	$160	49
73 La Jolla Cir	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,935 (+14%)	5mo	$549,900	$187	40
18988 Ocean Mist Ct	0.90mi	4/3.5	2,898 (+12%)	5mo	$580,000	$200	40
44 La Costa Dr	0.91mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,287 (-11%)	0mo	$835,000	$365	37
11545 Grand Pine Dr	0.78mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,344 (-9%)	5mo	$584,990	$250	37
18890 Serene Water Dr	0.87mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,339 (-9%)	5mo	$499,900	$214	37
298 Peninsula Point Dr	0.96mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,298 (-11%)	5mo	$348,988	$152	36
423 Cape Conroe Dr	1.06mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,148 (-17%)	1mo	$395,000	$184	30
18904 W Grand Pine Cir	1.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	3,014 (+17%)	5mo	$759,000	$252	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -53.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-277,213
• Equity at exit: $96,532

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.65×
• Total profit: $-481,110
• Equity at exit: $55,977

Cash invested: $181,276 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 82 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 49.2 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $492,400 ($196/sqft)
• Median days on market: 30 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +28.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1575
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,377 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,395
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$809 /mo · $9,711/yr
• Insurance: −$270
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-2,597

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,663

Max offer price $271,694

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-2,149	-5% $-2,373	+0% $-2,597	+5% $-2,820	+10% $-3,044
Rent	-10% $-2,784	-5% $-2,690	+0% $-2,597	+5% $-2,503	+10% $-2,409
Rate	-1.0pp $-2,270	-0.5pp $-2,432	base $-2,597	+0.5pp $-2,764	+1.0pp $-2,935

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $161,854
• Closing costs: $19,422
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9913 Crescent Cove Dr Montgomery, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1805	$2,399	$1.33	0d	29	0.42mi
47 Presidio Rd Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.5	2059	$2,300	$1.12	108d	1	1.04mi
318 Lazy Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1800	$1,745	$0.97	55d	1	1.14mi
223 Fantasy Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1824	$1,995	$1.09	65d	1	1.34mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $439,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan: Sedona)New construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2579

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Sedona (new construction plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $434,990 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $434,990 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $434,990 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $434,990 Active 51 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $434,990 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $434,990 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $434,990 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $434,990 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $434,990 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $434,990 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $434,990 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $434,990 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $434,990 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-09-06
    price $434,990 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $439,990 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $439,990 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $439,990 Active 33 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $439,990 Active 31 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $439,990 Active 29 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $439,990 Active 28 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $439,990 Active 27 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $439,990 Active 25 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $439,990 Active 24 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $439,990 Active 23 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $439,990 Active 22 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $439,990 Active 21 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $439,990 Active 20 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $439,990 Active 19 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $439,990 Active 18 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $439,990 Active 17 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $439,990 Active 16 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $439,990 Active 15 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $439,990 Active 14 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $439,990 Active 13 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $439,990 Active 12 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $439,990 Active 11 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $439,990 Active 10 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $439,990 Active 9 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $439,990 Active 8 DOM
40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $439,990 Active 6 DOM
41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $439,990 Active 5 DOM
42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $439,990 Active 4 DOM
43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $439,990 Active 3 DOM
44. 2026-08-01
    pricedays on marketlisting id $439,990 Active 1 DOM
45. 2026-07-31
    days on market $449,990 Active 69 DOM
46. 2026-07-30
    days on market $449,990 Active 67 DOM
47. 2026-07-28
    days on market $449,990 Active 66 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $449,990 Active 62 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $449,990 Active 61 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $449,990 Active 60 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$36,265
• − Property taxes: −$9,711
• − Insurance: −$3,237
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,282
• − Management: −$2,282
• − Depreciation: −$18,834
• Taxable loss: −$44,090
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$10,582
• After-tax cash flow: $-20,577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a modern design and well-maintained exterior. It is move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior brick and stone — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value ↑

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Stewart Creek El C TX #686/4,322 Nat'l #10,846/41,679 Middle Lincoln El C TX #621/4,322 Nat'l #9,801/41,679 High Montgomery H S C TX #327/1,632 Nat'l #4,023/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 70/100

Livability — Montgomery

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #372
• US rank: #7894

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 67,277
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $439,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (Plan: Sedona)New construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2579

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (3.5 total)
• Interior features: Plan: Sedona (new construction plan)