227 Connecticut St · Bismarck, ND 58504

$57,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 59 Days on market

Built 1997 Est $58k · at est. $863/mo HOA · 58% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This inviting Double Wide is your next home, with a wooden deck and attached entrance. There is an upgraded refrigerator, vinyl plank floors in living room, kitchen, and bathroom. The primary bedroom includes a bathroom, with a shower and handicap accessible shower and dual sinks. Two more bedrooms and a laundry room with washer and dryer. There is a ramp to the home, front entry and a storage shed. Sold ''as is where is''. Must be park approved. Agent/buyer to verify home details, taxes, etc.

Key facts

• New flooring
• New roof
• New toilet

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW TOILET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $57k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-603/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $48k (15.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $57k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Bismarck — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#5 in ND, #2,213 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime C-, amenities D+, commute F.
• Bismarck 1 (urban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #25 of 53 in ND (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Becep Center (332 students, 0% FRL); Wachter Middle School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #26 of 35 statewide, top 79%, 1,000 students, 30% FRL); Bismarck High School (math 22% / reading 38%, grade F, #90 of 144 statewide, top 66%, 1,333 students, 27% FRL) — zoned schools at 19% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 261 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 259 units permitted in Burleigh County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $394 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burleigh County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 58% of rent.

Recommended offer $48,125 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.78%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,240
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 Connecticut St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	0mo	$57,000	$39	100
1119 University Dr #1705	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-1%)	0mo	$57,600	$40	74
1119 University Dr #1101	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	0mo	$95,000	$71	68
246 Boeing Ave	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-2%)	10mo	$39,000	$27	67
725 S 12th St #204	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (-1%)	19mo	$75,000	$52	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-12,184
• Equity at exit: $8,499

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-13,712
• Equity at exit: $4,928

Cash invested: $15,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58504

• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 261
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,496 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$299
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $559/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$863
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $48,125

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-18	-5% $-34	+0% $-50	+5% $-66	+10% $-83
Rent	-10% $-168	-5% $-109	+0% $-50	+5% $9	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $-22	-0.5pp $-36	base $-50	+0.5pp $-65	+1.0pp $-80

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,250
• Closing costs: $1,710
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
505 1/2 S 10th St Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,600	$1.07	23d	1	0.73mi
2020 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0–2.0	1185	$1,955	$1.65	23d	19	0.77mi
2130 S 12th St Bismarck, ND	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1152	$1,980	$1.72	23d	12	0.89mi
215 E Arbor Ave Unit 205-305G Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1031	$995	$0.97	23d	1	1.04mi
215 E Arbor Ave Unit 201-302E Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	23d	1	1.04mi
172 Boise Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,050	$0.88	23d	1	1.04mi
205 E Arbor Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1031	$995	$0.97	23d	1	1.09mi
201 E Arbor Ave Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1100	$995	$0.90	23d	1	1.11mi
2316 E Broadway Ave Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0	1113	$1,250	$1.12	23d	1	1.15mi
407 N 12th St Unit 3/4 Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	23d	1	1.19mi
1543 S Washington St Bismarck, ND	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,050	$1.37	23d	1	1.28mi
2220 East Avenue A Unit 1/2 Bismarck, ND	3.0	1.0	1227	$1,150	$0.94	23d	1	1.30mi
700 N 22nd St Bismarck, ND	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	23d	1	1.43mi
127 Stuttgart Dr Unit 1 Bismarck, ND	2.0	2.0	1600	$1,400	$0.88	23d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $863 · $10,356/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $57,000
3. 2026-02-10
   listed $60,000 Active
4. 2022-09-30
   soldstatus 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   This inviting Double Wide is your next home, with a wooden deck and attached entrance. There is an upgraded refrigerator, vinyl plank floors in living room, kitchen, and bathroom. The primary bedroom includes a bathroom, with a shower and handicap accessible shower and dual sinks. Two more bedrooms and a laundry room with washer and dryer. There is a ramp to the home, front entry and a storage shed. Sold ''as is where is''. Must be park approved. Agent/buyer to verify home details, taxes, etc.

5. 2022-08-03
   listed $51,900 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   This inviting Double Wide is your next home, with a wooden deck and attached entrance. There is an upgraded refrigerator, vinyl plank floors in living room, kitchen, and bathroom. The primary bedroom includes a bathroom, with a shower and handicap accessible shower and dual sinks. Two more bedrooms and a laundry room with washer and dryer. There is a ramp to the home, front entry and a storage shed. Sold ''as is where is''. Must be park approved. Agent/buyer to verify home details, taxes, etc.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $559 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,955
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,193
• − Property taxes: −$559
• − Insurance: −$285
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − HOA: −$10,356
• − Depreciation: −$1,658
• Taxable loss: −$969
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$233
• After-tax cash flow: $-370/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bismarck 1
• NCES district ID: 3800014
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $60,649
• Composite: 36.76/100
• National rank: #4577
• State rank: #25 of 53 in ND

Livability — Bismarck

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #2213

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bismarck, ND
• County: Burleigh County · 97,300 people
• City population: 97,300
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• Population (ZIP): 30,212
• Household income: $85,637
• Rent vs Own: 25.6% rent · 74.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 400.0

Population outlook (Burleigh County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,359 people
• By 2030: 133,047 · +11.5%
• By 2040: 161,545 · +35.3%
• By 2050: 191,960 · +60.8%
• By 2075: 274,569 · +130.0%
• By 2100: 350,910 · +194.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Native American 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 13% Scotch-Irish 5% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Burleigh

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.2) · D 27.5% · R 70.7% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.7pp toward R · 2008: -23.6pp · 2024: -43.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.2 2020: R+40.2 2016: R+46.1 2012: R+32.1 2008: R+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.70%
• Current HPI: 210.0651
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.81%
• Metro: Bismarck, ND
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+9.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — GNMLS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $57,000 GNMLS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $60,000 GNMLS
• 2022-09-30 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2022-08-03 Listed $51,900 GNMLS