2418 Primrose Ct Ct #2418 · McKee City, NJ 08330

$164,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 892 sqft · SingleFamily · 302 Days on market

Built 1986 $185/sqft · 12% above area Est $147k · 12% over $243/mo HOA · 13% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.1/15.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 1 bedroom, 1 bath featuring nice size living room, spacious upgraded kitchen. Den, nice size bedroom and bath. There is tile flooring in LR/Kit/bath, carpet in bedroom and den. Beautiful pool just steps away within the community. Clubhouse, playground and security. Close to bus transportation, walking distance to shopping and malls. Property is currently occupied with annual leases in place. Buyer responsible for CO.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Community pool
• Upgraded kitchen

Tags

• TILE FLOORING
• UPGRADED KITCHEN
• COMMUNITY POOL
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $117 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.0% in McKee City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Hamilton Township School District (suburban): math 9% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #401 of 472 in NJ (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 240 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 672 units permitted in Atlantic County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Atlantic County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 302 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 302 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.04%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $147,100
• List price: $164,900
• Delta: 12.10%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $97,429
• Equity at exit: $148,555

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 7.09×
• Total profit: $281,414
• Equity at exit: $320,364

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08330

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 240
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,898 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,474/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$243
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $164,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $231	-5% $174	+0% $117	+5% $60	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-33	-5% $42	+0% $117	+5% $192	+10% $267
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $159	base $117	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $31

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2807 Hawthorn Ct Mays Landing, NJ	1.0	1.0	929	$1,800	$1.94	14d	1	0.13mi
3401 Montgomery Dr Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1192	$2,240	$1.88	14d	18	0.29mi
1932 Cologne Ave Mays Landing, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,695	$2.19	14d	1	0.77mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $243 · $2,916/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $164,900 Active 302 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 301 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 300 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 299 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 298 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $164,900 Active 296 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 295 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 293 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 292 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $164,900 Active 291 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 290 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 286 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 285 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 284 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 283 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $164,900 Active 282 DOM
17. 2025-09-17
    price $164,900 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Beautiful 1 bedroom, 1 bath featuring nice size living room, spacious upgraded kitchen. Den, nice size bedroom and bath. There is tile flooring in LR/Kit/bath, carpet in bedroom and den. Beautiful pool just steps away within the community. Clubhouse, playground and security. Close to bus transportation, walking distance to shopping and malls. Property is currently occupied with annual leases in place. Buyer responsible for CO.

18. 2025-08-21
    listed $169,900 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Beautiful 1 bedroom, 1 bath featuring nice size living room, spacious upgraded kitchen. Den, nice size bedroom and bath. There is tile flooring in LR/Kit/bath, carpet in bedroom and den. Beautiful pool just steps away within the community. Clubhouse, playground and security. Close to bus transportation, walking distance to shopping and malls. Property is currently occupied with annual leases in place. Buyer responsible for CO.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,776
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$2,474
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,822
• − Management: −$1,822
• − HOA: −$2,916
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$1,116
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$268
• After-tax cash flow: $1,670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hamilton Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3406510
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $60,997
• Composite: 21.34/100
• National rank: #8372
• State rank: #401 of 472 in NJ

Livability — McKee City

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: McKee City, NJ
• County: Atlantic County · 143,611 people
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 29,972
• Household income: $77,167
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1003.0

Population outlook (Atlantic County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 268,948 people
• By 2030: 264,497 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 252,261 · -6.2%
• By 2050: 237,846 · -11.6%
• By 2075: 210,650 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 180,234 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 14% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Atlantic

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 50.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: 15.1pp · 2024: -3.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: D+6.2 2012: D+17.2 2008: D+15.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.58%
• Current HPI: 308.5148
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-2.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $164,900 SJSRMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $169,900 SJSRMLS