5804 Falls Of Neuse Rd Unit G · Raleigh, NC 27609

$157,799

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,010 sqft · Condo public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1981 $250/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless steel appliances - Renovated bathrooms with updated cabinets - Custom shower in primary bath - Laminate floors - Private balcony - Freshly painted - One assigned parking space and ample amounts of shared parking spaces - Neighborhood pool - Refrigerator, washer and dryer provided - Walk to restaurants & shopping

Key facts

• $250 HOA
• Parking
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-46 ($-557/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $150k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (5.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 2.7% in Raleigh — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#10 in NC, #1,028 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Wake County Schools (suburban): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #35 of 178 in NC (top 20%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Millbrook Elementary (math 32% / reading 32%, grade F, #908 of 1,410 statewide, top 67%, 529 students, 80% FRL); East Millbrook Middle (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #416 of 475 statewide, top 89%, 769 students, 73% FRL); Millbrook High (math 56% / reading 68%, grade B-, #184 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 2,421 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 30% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 56% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Wake County Schools average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 258 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 15,249 units permitted in Wake County in 2024 (5,568 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wake County population projected at +51% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,595 (5.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.26%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-32,973
• Equity at exit: $23,528

10-year hold

• IRR: -29.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-49,670
• Equity at exit: $13,644

Cash invested: $44,184 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27609

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$828
• Tax from tax record: −$140 /mo · $1,675/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-46

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,624

Max offer price $149,595

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $43	-5% $-2	+0% $-46	+5% $-91	+10% $-136
Rent	-10% $-170	-5% $-108	+0% $-46	+5% $15	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $33	-0.5pp $-6	base $-46	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-129

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,450
• Closing costs: $4,734
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5805 Nottoway Ct Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1368	$1,595	$1.17	14d	1	0.04mi
1209 Manassas Ct Unit C Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1262	$1,400	$1.11	4d	1	0.13mi
1208 Manassas Ct Unit A Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	1010	$1,450	$1.44	25d	1	0.19mi
5712 Finsbury Ct Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1224	$1,800	$1.47	25d	1	0.29mi
800 Green Ridge Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,695	$1.18	25d	1	0.44mi
6416 Meadow View Dr Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1432	$1,695	$1.18	16d	1	0.50mi
700 Spring Falls Dr Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	1088	$1,731	$1.59	25d	1	0.54mi
700 Spring Falls Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0	1.0	868	$1,484	$1.71	3d	18	0.54mi
5315 Covey Ct Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.0	1299	$2,025	$1.56	23d	1	0.60mi
6435 New Market Way Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.5	1389	$2,000	$1.44	25d	1	0.63mi
7040 Sandy Forks Rd Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	1184	$1,600	$1.35	25d	1	0.67mi
7010 Sandy Forks Rd Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	1122	$1,500	$1.34	25d	1	0.70mi
6625 Lake Hill Dr Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	767	$1,409	$1.84	3d	41	0.73mi
5825 Pointer Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,649	$1.86	4d	17	0.81mi
1401 E Millbrook Rd Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	870	$1,298	$1.49	19d	13	0.81mi
6301 Lakecrest Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1155	$2,024	$1.75	3d	41	0.84mi
6317 Shanda Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$1,346	$1.47	3d	49	0.84mi
5837 Shady Grove Cir Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,500	$1.42	5d	1	0.87mi
5606 Split Oak Way Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1290	$1,600	$1.24	14d	1	0.88mi
1019 Fox Hunt Ln Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	945	$1,359	$1.44	5d	6	1.10mi
1729 Grace Brook Rd Raleigh, NC	2.0	3.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	14d	1	1.16mi
5540 Atlantic Crossing Dr Brentwood, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	930	$1,951	$2.10	4d	30	1.17mi
1500 Sunbow Falls Ln Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	934	$1,463	$1.57	3d	24	1.19mi
6320 Dowd Forest Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$1,450	$1.40	4d	23	1.22mi
4717 Radcliff Rd Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1121	$1,850	$1.65	14d	1	1.24mi
5581 Burnlee Pl Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.5	1079	$1,489	$1.38	5d	3	1.25mi
5341 Arrival Dr Raleigh, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,627	$2.02	3d	124	1.25mi
5499 Tralee Pl Raleigh, NC	2.0	1.5	1100	$1,299	$1.18	4d	3	1.27mi
6350 Terra Verde Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$1,593	$1.43	3d	28	1.29mi
120 Ridgewood Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	673	$1,275	$1.89	3d	10	1.35mi
317 Lynn Rd Raleigh, NC	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,704	$1.51	25d	1	1.35mi
317 Lynn Rd Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.0	908	$1,304	$1.44	4d	1	1.35mi
2525 Pavilion Pl Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1012	$1,535	$1.52	4d	24	1.37mi
2611 Torquay Xing Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	949	$1,262	$1.33	3d	7	1.43mi
214 Loft Ln Raleigh, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$1,530	$1.43	4d	19	1.45mi
3102 Berkeley Springs Pl Raleigh, NC	2.0	2.5	1384	$1,600	$1.16	25d	1	1.49mi
6820 Woodbend Dr Raleigh, NC	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,260	$1.74	3d	18	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: poolparking
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   listed $157,799 Active
3. 2024-10-24
   soldstatus $190,000 Sold 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless steel appliances - Renovated bathrooms with updated cabinets - Custom shower in primary bath - Laminate floors - Private balcony - Freshly painted - One assigned parking space and ample amounts of shared parking spaces - Neighborhood pool - Refrigerator, washer and dryer provided - Walk to restaurants & shopping

4. 2024-10-24
   soldstatus $190,000

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless steel appliances - Renovated bathrooms with updated cabinets - Custom shower in primary bath - Laminate floors - Private balcony - Freshly painted - One assigned parking space and ample amounts of shared parking spaces - Neighborhood pool - Refrigerator, washer and dryer provided - Walk to restaurants & shopping

5. 2024-10-14
   status Pending 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless steel appliances - Renovated bathrooms with updated cabinets - Custom shower in primary bath - Laminate floors - Private balcony - Freshly painted - One assigned parking space and ample amounts of shared parking spaces - Neighborhood pool - Refrigerator, washer and dryer provided - Walk to restaurants & shopping

6. 2024-09-25
   listed $199,900 Active 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   Updated kitchen with granite counters and stainless steel appliances - Renovated bathrooms with updated cabinets - Custom shower in primary bath - Laminate floors - Private balcony - Freshly painted - One assigned parking space and ample amounts of shared parking spaces - Neighborhood pool - Refrigerator, washer and dryer provided - Walk to restaurants & shopping

7. 1996-12-31
   soldstatus $56,000
8. 1981-11-01
   soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,675 · $140/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,675 · $140/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,780
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,839
• − Property taxes: −$1,675
• − Insurance: −$789
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,502
• − Management: −$1,502
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$4,591
• Taxable loss: −$3,118
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$748
• After-tax cash flow: $191/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wake County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704720
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,509
• Composite: 49.41/100
• National rank: #2010
• State rank: #35 of 178 in NC

Livability — Raleigh

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #1028

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Raleigh, NC
• County: Wake County · 1,216,256 people
• City population: 569,344
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 35,573
• Household income: $83,065
• Rent vs Own: 50.2% rent · 49.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1774.0

Population outlook (Wake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,293,152 people
• By 2030: 1,428,223 · +10.4%
• By 2040: 1,698,188 · +31.3%
• By 2050: 1,955,807 · +51.2%
• By 2075: 2,520,273 · +94.9%
• By 2100: 2,893,335 · +123.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 12% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wake

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.5) · D 61.9% · R 36.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.1pp toward D · 2008: 14.4pp · 2024: 25.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.5 2020: D+26.4 2016: D+20.5 2012: D+10.2 2008: D+14.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -503.19%
• Current HPI: 317.0251
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.57%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+338.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-02 Listed $157,799 TMLS
• 2024-10-24 Sold (Public Records) $190,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-24 Sold (MLS) $190,000 TMLS
• 2024-10-14 Pending — TMLS
• 2024-09-25 Listed $199,900 TMLS
• 1996-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1981-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,675 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.