2746 Columbia Ln #5 · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85933

$140,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 84 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $350/sqft · 10% above area Est $127k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming park model offering an affordable and low-maintenance way to enjoy your own place in the beautiful White Mountains! This cozy retreat is perfect as a weekend getaway, summer escape, seasonal residence, or STR with a comfortable layout and inviting cabin-style feel. Enjoy the simplicity of owning your own space without the cost and upkeep of traditional homeownership. Ideal for those looking for a lock-and-leave property. Please note: This is a park model home situated on a leased lot (no land ownership). Per park and zoning guidelines, the home is intended for seasonal/recreational use and not full-time residence. Park rules and lot rent apply. Pictures are of the model home.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Ramadas
• Community splash pad

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• ADDITIONAL LOFT SPACE
• OUTDOOR PATIO AREA
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• COMMUNITY SPLASH PAD
• RAMADAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($950/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain Meadows Primary (math 70% / reading 50%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 143 students, 43% FRL); Mogollon Jr High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 77 students, 0% FRL); Mogollon High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #116 of 381 statewide, top 31%, 167 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 50% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 258 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,970
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 10.26%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2746 Columbia Ln #13	0.00mi	1/1.0	400 (0%)	10mo	$135,000	$338	92

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-17,622
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,769
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85933

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 258
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,325 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,225

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $176	-5% $128	+0% $79	+5% $31	+10% $-18
Rent	-10% $-25	-5% $27	+0% $79	+5% $132	+10% $184
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $115	base $79	+0.5pp $43	+1.0pp $6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $140,000 Active 84 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $140,000 Active 83 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 81 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 80 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 79 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 78 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $140,000 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 63 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 62 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 61 DOM
19. 2026-03-30
    listed $140,000 Active 693-char remark

    Show marketing remark (693 chars)

    Charming park model offering an affordable and low-maintenance way to enjoy your own place in the beautiful White Mountains! This cozy retreat is perfect as a weekend getaway, summer escape, seasonal residence, or STR with a comfortable layout and inviting cabin-style feel. Enjoy the simplicity of owning your own space without the cost and upkeep of traditional homeownership. Ideal for those looking for a lock-and-leave property. Please note: This is a park model home situated on a leased lot (no land ownership). Per park and zoning guidelines, the home is intended for seasonal/recreational use and not full-time residence. Park rules and lot rent apply. Pictures are of the model home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,899
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,272
• − Management: −$1,272
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$1,360
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$326
• After-tax cash flow: $1,277/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This charming park model home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a low-maintenance living experience and is ideal for seasonal or recreational use.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance both the resale and rental value of the property.
• Both Painting — Refreshing the exterior paint can improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — A well-maintained landscape can enhance both the resale and rental value of the property. ↑
• Both Painting — Refreshing the exterior paint can improve the curb appeal and increase the property's value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,989

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Native American 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Italian 7% Portuguese 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.51%
• Current HPI: 358.021
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $140,000 WMMLS