9167 E Chris St · Bel Aire, KS 67226

$189,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,195 sqft · MultiFamily · 179 Days on market

Built 2025 9,583 sqft lot $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Key facts

• 9,583 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association; Association fee $100 (includes general upkeep for common areas); HOA initiation fee $100

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer available; Natural gas available
• Home design: Duplex
• Construction: No basement
• Exterior features: One-level; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air (electric); Forced air heating (natural gas)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Range
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-48 ($-571/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $161k (15.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $161k (15.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#110 in KS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Circle (rural): math 33% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #28 of 169 in KS (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Circle Greenwich Elementary (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B, #59 of 684 statewide, top 9%, 332 students, 21% FRL); Circle Middle School (math 17% / reading 33%, grade F, #108 of 219 statewide, top 50%, 303 students, 32% FRL); Circle High (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #105 of 327 statewide, top 49%, 600 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.7%/yr); 114 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,613 units permitted in Sedgwick County in 2024 (258 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sedgwick County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 179 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,761 (15.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 179 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.99%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.08%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-30,912
• Equity at exit: $28,255

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-18,821
• Equity at exit: $16,384

Cash invested: $53,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 67226

• Home prices YoY: -11.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.7%
• Active inventory: 114
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,608 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$994
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$237 /mo · $2,842/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $-48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,668

Max offer price $182,615

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $18	+0% $-48	+5% $-113	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-175	-5% $-111	+0% $-48	+5% $16	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $48	-0.5pp $1	base $-48	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,375
• Closing costs: $5,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5263 N Toben Ct Bel Aire, KS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,595	$1.23	25d	1	0.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-11
   listed $189,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,291
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,615
• − Property taxes: −$2,842
• − Insurance: −$948
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,543
• − Management: −$1,543
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,513
• Taxable loss: −$3,809
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$914
• After-tax cash flow: $343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Circle
• NCES district ID: 2012300
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $64,703
• Composite: 35.03/100
• National rank: #5039
• State rank: #28 of 169 in KS

Livability — Bel Aire

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #110
• US rank: #6178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Aire, KS
• County: Sedgwick County · 432,957 people
• Metro: Wichita, KS
• Population (ZIP): 21,596
• Household income: $92,341
• Rent vs Own: 41.2% rent · 58.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 779.0

Population outlook (Sedgwick County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 537,014 people
• By 2030: 546,984 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 559,141 · +4.1%
• By 2050: 562,027 · +4.7%
• By 2075: 557,255 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 513,383 · -4.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Arabic 5% Spanish 2% Vietnamese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sedgwick

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 42.3% · R 56.1% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.6 2016: R+19.1 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.84%
• Current HPI: 221.9475
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.70%
• Metro: Wichita, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Pending — SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-11 Listed $189,500 SCKMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid