Pearce Plan · Needville, TX 77461

$202,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,084 sqft · SingleFamily · 175 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Designed for convenient and modern living, this new single-story home features a breezy and open layout. The foyer leads to a peninsula-style kitchen overlooking the dining area and family room, with a rear door extending to the backyard. Throughout the home are two secondary bedrooms and a tranquil owner's suite with an en-suite bathroom and a walk-in closet. A versatile two-car garage completes this floorplan.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 174 days

🏗️ New construction. The $202,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $251,183.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $203k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-253 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#137 in TX, #3,992 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Needville ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #95 of 826 in TX (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Needville El (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #587 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 1,129 students, 49% FRL); Needville Middle (math 56% / reading 56%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 819 students, 45% FRL); Needville H S (math 50% / reading 56%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,067 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 516 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,631 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.32%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,183
• List price: $202,990
• Delta: -19.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7503 Madrid Mnr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	2mo	$221,990	$175	44
4930 Valencia Frst	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	3mo	$199,991	$158	44
7603 Barcelona Spgs	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	6mo	$252,990	$200	39
7514 Barcelona Spgs	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	5mo	$256,990	$203	38
7611 Barcelona Spgs	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	6mo	$254,990	$201	38
7618 Barcelona Spgs	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	6mo	$254,990	$201	37
4915 Esperanza Terrace Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	7mo	$256,990	$203	34
4927 Esperanza Terrace Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	8mo	$254,990	$201	34
4947 Esperanza Terrace Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	9mo	$254,990	$201	34
5011 Esperanza Terrace Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	9mo	$256,990	$203	34
4935 Esperanza Terrace Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	9mo	$256,990	$203	34
5047 Esperanza Terrace Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,266 (+17%)	11mo	$256,990	$203	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-56,812
• Equity at exit: $37,452

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.00×
• Total profit: $-70,135
• Equity at exit: $21,718

Cash invested: $70,331 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 5 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.0 mo (33%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $200,090 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 51 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +43.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77461

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Active inventory: 516
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,877 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,317
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$314 /mo · $3,768/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $-253

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,197

Max offer price $214,520

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-167	+0% $-253	+5% $-340	+10% $-427
Rent	-10% $-402	-5% $-327	+0% $-253	+5% $-179	+10% $-105
Rate	-1.0pp $-127	-0.5pp $-189	base $-253	+0.5pp $-318	+1.0pp $-385

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,796
• Closing costs: $7,536
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $265,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Pearce)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1084

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named PearceNew construction — Plan inventory

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $202,990 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $202,990 Active 174 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $202,990 Active 173 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $202,990 Active 172 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $202,990 Active 171 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $202,990 Active 170 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $202,990 Active 169 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $202,990 Active 168 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $202,990 Active 167 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $202,990 Active 166 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $202,990 Active 165 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $202,990 Active 164 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $202,990 Active 163 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $202,990 Active 162 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $202,990 Active 156 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $202,990 Active 155 DOM
17. 2026-09-02
    pricedays on market $202,990 Active 153 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $200,990 Active 151 DOM
19. 2026-08-29
    days on market $200,990 Active 149 DOM
20. 2026-08-28
    days on market $200,990 Active 148 DOM
21. 2026-08-27
    days on market $200,990 Active 147 DOM
22. 2026-08-26
    days on market $200,990 Active 146 DOM
23. 2026-08-25
    days on market $200,990 Active 145 DOM
24. 2026-08-24
    days on market $200,990 Active 144 DOM
25. 2026-08-23
    pricedays on market $200,990 Active 143 DOM
26. 2026-08-22
    days on market $198,990 Active 142 DOM
27. 2026-08-21
    days on market $198,990 Active 141 DOM
28. 2026-08-20
    days on market $198,990 Active 140 DOM
29. 2026-08-19
    days on market $198,990 Active 139 DOM
30. 2026-08-18
    days on market $198,990 Active 138 DOM
31. 2026-08-17
    days on market $198,990 Active 137 DOM
32. 2026-08-16
    days on market $198,990 Active 136 DOM
33. 2026-08-15
    days on market $198,990 Active 135 DOM
34. 2026-08-14
    days on market $198,990 Active 134 DOM
35. 2026-08-13
    pricedays on market $198,990 Active 133 DOM
36. 2026-08-12
    days on market $208,990 Active 132 DOM
37. 2026-08-11
    days on market $208,990 Active 131 DOM
38. 2026-08-10
    days on market $208,990 Active 130 DOM
39. 2026-08-09
    days on market $208,990 Active 129 DOM
40. 2026-08-08
    pricedays on market $208,990 Active 128 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $213,990 Active 126 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    price $213,990 Active 125 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $218,990 Active 125 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $218,990 Active 124 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $218,990 Active 123 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $218,990 Active 120 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $218,990 Active 119 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $218,990 Active 118 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $218,990 Active 117 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $218,990 Active 115 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,519
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,070
• − Property taxes: −$3,768
• − Insurance: −$1,256
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,802
• − Management: −$1,802
• − Depreciation: −$7,307
• Taxable loss: −$7,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,796
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,244/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,420–$16,260 screening

This single-story home is in good condition with a modern design and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for move-in and would benefit from some cosmetic updates to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Updating the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can improve the home's functionality and appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase the home's curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 55/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Needville El C TX #587/4,322 Nat'l #9,513/41,679 Middle Needville Middle B- TX #234/1,662 Nat'l #2,362/14,009 High Needville H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Needville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832310
• Math proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $62,900
• Composite: 48.17/100
• National rank: #2176
• State rank: #95 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Needville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #3992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend · 1,004,526 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,397
• Household income: $89,360
• Rent vs Own: 23.4% rent · 76.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1% of renters

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (50%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 45% Two or more races 18% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% German/W. Germanic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.17%
• Current HPI: 324.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $265,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage / 2 total parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan (Pearce)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1084

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named PearceNew construction — Plan inventory