415 S Sugar St · Celina, OH 45822

$169,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,243 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1950 4,356 sqft lot Est $189k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 Bed 1 1/2 Bath home. 1 car garage on a nice corner lot. Home is all electric, baseboard heat in all the rooms. Large mud room in the back.

Key facts

• Spacious mudroom
• Corner lot
• 4,356 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS MUDROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Supplied water; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1950
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Residential lot; Lot approximately 0.1 acres (66 x 66)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 total bathrooms (1 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating (electric); Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Range; Refrigerator; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (4.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (4.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.9% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#397 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Celina City (town): math 64% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #299 of 656 in OH (top 46%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mercer County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $162,113 (4.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.83%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $188,936
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
419 S Mill St	0.07mi	3/1.0	1,192 (-4%)	13mo	$90,000	$76	77
617 Echo St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+5%)	1mo	$180,000	$138	74
606 W Logan St	0.27mi	3/1.0	1,260 (+1%)	15mo	$145,000	$115	71
210 S Elm St	0.33mi	3/1.0	1,186 (-5%)	7mo	$205,000	$173	69
909 Wilkins St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,252 (+1%)	10mo	$214,900	$172	65
509 S Sugar St	0.07mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,117 (-10%)	14mo	$59,000	$53	61
541 Lisle St	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,191 (-4%)	5mo	$152,000	$128	58
319 E Wayne St	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-4%)	7mo	$254,900	$212	56
524 N Buckeye St	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,215 (-2%)	6mo	$244,900	$202	54
328 E Livingston St	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,401 (+13%)	3mo	$230,000	$164	53
902 W Market St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,140 (-8%)	11mo	$150,000	$132	52
120 E Blake St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,056 (-15%)	2mo	$160,000	$152	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-15,375
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,189
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45822

• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$128 /mo · $1,532/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,379

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-23
   listed $169,900 Active
3. 2022-07-19
   soldstatus $127,714
4. 2022-07-14
   soldstatus $127,611 Closed 142-char remark

   Show marketing remark (142 chars)

   3 Bed 1 1/2 Bath home. 1 car garage on a nice corner lot. Home is all electric, baseboard heat in all the rooms. Large mud room in the back.

5. 2022-05-18
   historical Contingency - Finance and Inspections 142-char remark

   Show marketing remark (142 chars)

   3 Bed 1 1/2 Bath home. 1 car garage on a nice corner lot. Home is all electric, baseboard heat in all the rooms. Large mud room in the back.

6. 2022-05-16
   listed $110,000 Active 142-char remark

   Show marketing remark (142 chars)

   3 Bed 1 1/2 Bath home. 1 car garage on a nice corner lot. Home is all electric, baseboard heat in all the rooms. Large mud room in the back.

7. 2011-07-14
   soldstatus $18,100 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   Purchase this home as your primary residence and you may be eligible for up to 3.5% in closing cost assistance if you close by June 30, 2011! 1.5 story home with one bedroom on the first floor. Fenced in yard. This property is a Fannie Mae Home Path property. For more information please visit www.homepath.com

8. 2011-02-22
   listed $19,900 310-char remark

   Show marketing remark (310 chars)

   Purchase this home as your primary residence and you may be eligible for up to 3.5% in closing cost assistance if you close by June 30, 2011! 1.5 story home with one bedroom on the first floor. Fenced in yard. This property is a Fannie Mae Home Path property. For more information please visit www.homepath.com

9. 2007-07-09
   soldstatus $48,600
10. 2007-05-31
    soldstatus $48,600
11. 2007-04-23
    listed $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,532 · $128/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,091 · $174/mo
• Expected delta: +$559/yr (+$47/mo · 36.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,454
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$1,532
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,556
• − Management: −$1,556
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$500
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$120
• After-tax cash flow: $2,416/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina City
• NCES district ID: 3910030
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,168
• Composite: 50.44/100
• National rank: #1864
• State rank: #299 of 656 in OH

Livability — Celina

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #397
• US rank: #6556

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, OH
• County: Mercer · 42,068 people
• Population (ZIP): 20,170
• Household income: $72,106
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 15.9

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 40,163 people
• By 2030: 39,367 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 37,406 · -6.9%
• By 2050: 34,917 · -13.1%
• By 2075: 28,969 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 21,338 · -46.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.7) · D 16.3% · R 83.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: -43.5pp · 2024: -66.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.7 2020: R+64.9 2016: R+65.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+43.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.25%
• Current HPI: 204.0486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+240.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — WRIST
• 2026-03-23 Listed $169,900 WRIST
• 2022-07-19 Sold (Public Records) $127,714 Public Records
• 2022-07-14 Sold (MLS) $127,611 WRIST
• 2022-05-18 Contingent — WRIST
• 2022-05-16 Listed $110,000 WRIST
• 2011-07-14 Sold (MLS) $18,100 WRIST
• 2011-02-22 Listed $19,900 WRIST
• 2007-07-09 Sold (Public Records) $48,600 Public Records
• 2007-05-31 Sold (MLS) $48,600 WRIST
• 2007-04-23 Listed $49,900 WRIST

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,532 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.