7106 Bayou Crest Dr · Houston, TX 77088

$214,999

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,856 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1997 4,399 sqft lot $116/sqft · 10% below area Est $240k · 10% under $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into this spacious two-story home in an established Northwest Houston neighborhood, offering a functional layout designed for everyday living. All bedrooms are located upstairs, creating a comfortable separation between living and private spaces. Fresh interior paint throughout provides a clean, refreshed feel, ready for its next owner. The main level features a generous living area ideal for gathering and entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find well-sized bedrooms along with a versatile flex space perfect for a home office, playroom, or additional living area. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, and the upstairs laundry adds everyday convenience. Enjoy a covered back patio and a sizable backyard with room to relax, entertain, or customize to your needs. Convenient access to major roadways, shopping, and dining completes the package.

Key facts

• Generous living area
• Covered back patio
• Functional layout

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• GENEROUS LIVING AREA
• LARGE WALK IN CLOSET
• UPSTAIRS LAUNDRY
• COVERED BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $187k (13.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (6.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $187k (13.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Klein ISD (suburban): math 41% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Eiland El (math 29% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 521 students, 92% FRL); Klein Int (math 22% / reading 30%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 1,062 students, 86% FRL); Klein H S (math 58% / reading 67%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 3,352 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 37% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($54k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $186,952 (13.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.16%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,992
• List price: $214,999
• Delta: -10.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6723 Bayou Crest Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,760 (-5%)	1mo	$229,999	$131	77
6703 Casablanca Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,838 (-1%)	2mo	$274,900	$150	64
8918 Bold Forest Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,873 (+1%)	4mo	$235,000	$125	63
8726 Wildforest Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,807 (-3%)	3mo	$279,000	$154	61
6715 Log Hollow Dr	0.60mi	3/2.5	1,883 (+2%)	10mo	$275,000	$146	61
6610 Grand Haven Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,716 (-8%)	11mo	$245,000	$143	59
6223 Downwood Forest Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,908 (+3%)	11mo	$267,500	$140	56
6115 Downwood Forest Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,953 (+5%)	10mo	$275,000	$141	51
7810 Stone Orchard Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,719 (-7%)	1mo	$348,990	$203	50
6603 Log Hollow Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,750 (-6%)	11mo	$230,000	$131	49
6810 Casablanca Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,619 (-13%)	3mo	$234,500	$145	46
6022 Downwood Forest Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,991 (+7%)	7mo	$270,000	$136	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-50,672
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.32×
• Total profit: $-79,216
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77088

• Home prices YoY: -23.2%
• Rents YoY: -1.0%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,019 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$482 /mo · $5,790/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,220

Max offer price $186,952

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-37	-5% $-98	+0% $-159	+5% $-220	+10% $-280
Rent	-10% $-318	-5% $-239	+0% $-159	+5% $-79	+10% $1
Rate	-1.0pp $-50	-0.5pp $-104	base $-159	+0.5pp $-214	+1.0pp $-271

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6807 Ashland Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1790	$1,850	$1.03	45d	1	0.20mi
7137 Cheshire Park Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1912	$1,989	$1.04	9d	1	0.21mi
6018 Elkwood Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1840	$1,975	$1.07	45d	1	0.93mi
13 Regency Ln Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1354	$1,650	$1.22	45d	1	1.04mi
12626 Atwood Grove Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	1.15mi
5626 Greenhill Forest Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1734	$1,835	$1.06	0d	1	1.27mi
5415 Fair Forest Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1752	$1,861	$1.06	21d	1	1.38mi
8110 Oahu Ct Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2624	$2,326	$0.89	9d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $214,999 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $214,999 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $214,999 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,999 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,999 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,999 Active 71 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,999 Active 67 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,999 Active 66 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,999 Active 65 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $214,999 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $214,999 Active 61 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,999 Active 60 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,999 Active 59 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,999 Active 58 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    listed $214,999 Active 867-char remark

    Show marketing remark (867 chars)

    Step into this spacious two-story home in an established Northwest Houston neighborhood, offering a functional layout designed for everyday living. All bedrooms are located upstairs, creating a comfortable separation between living and private spaces. Fresh interior paint throughout provides a clean, refreshed feel, ready for its next owner. The main level features a generous living area ideal for gathering and entertaining. Upstairs, you’ll find well-sized bedrooms along with a versatile flex space perfect for a home office, playroom, or additional living area. The primary suite includes a large walk-in closet, and the upstairs laundry adds everyday convenience. Enjoy a covered back patio and a sizable backyard with room to relax, entertain, or customize to your needs. Convenient access to major roadways, shopping, and dining completes the package.

16. 2025-01-18
    historical
17. 2024-04-13
    listed $260,000 Active
18. 2006-04-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,790 · $482/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,790 · $482/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$5,790
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,938
• − Management: −$1,938
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$5,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,311
• After-tax cash flow: $-594/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Klein ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825740
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $78,288
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3615
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 57,047
• Household income: $54,411
• Rent vs Own: 38.1% rent · 61.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2294.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% Black 37% Two or more races 18% White 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 25% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 47% Vietnamese 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.37%
• Current HPI: 325.0499
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.01%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $214,999 HARMLS
• 2025-01-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-04-13 Listed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2006-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,790 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.