10612 Boxmeer Ct · Fredericksburg, VA 22408

$290,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,123 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1998 1,742 sqft lot Est $300k · at est. $80/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• ARV discount +9.0/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Renovated townhome move-in ready! Freshly painted throughout this home includes new kitchen granite countertops and brand new flooring throughout! This three bedroom home is located in convenient location just mins. from downtown, shopping and I-95!

Key facts

• $80 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1998

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-104 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $272k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $224k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.6% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#299 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, schools A, employment A-; Watch: crime F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Spotsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #38 of 131 in VA (top 29%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 707 units permitted in Spotsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Spotsylvania County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $223,529 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.53%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $299,841
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10612 Boxmeer Ct	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,123 (0%)	1mo	$300,000	$267	99
10602 Boxmeer Ct	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,123 (0%)	8mo	$280,000	$249	90
10606 Boxmeer Ct	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,123 (0%)	8mo	$307,000	$273	89
10512 Tidewater Plains Dr	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,123 (0%)	3mo	$298,000	$265	88
10510 Limburg Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,123 (0%)	3mo	$285,000	$254	88
10606 Tidewater Plains Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,123 (0%)	4mo	$280,000	$249	84
10613 Limburg Ct	0.02mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,123 (0%)	12mo	$315,000	$280	80
10503 Boxmeer Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,123 (0%)	13mo	$315,000	$280	79
10505 Boxmeer Ct	0.06mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,116 (-1%)	16mo	$315,000	$282	76
10504 Limburg Ct	0.07mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,116 (-1%)	16mo	$310,000	$278	75
10515 Tidewater Plains Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,247 (+11%)	13mo	$325,000	$261	62
10913 Bevin Dr	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,276 (+14%)	14mo	$315,000	$247	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-53,365
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-54,047
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22408

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$148 /mo · $1,773/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $-104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,366

Max offer price $271,712

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10502 Guilderland Ct Fredericksburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,800	$1.60	13d	1	0.06mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-11
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-09
   listed $290,000 Active
3. 2026-03-20
   historical $290,000
4. 2022-10-04
   soldstatus $270,000
5. 2022-10-03
   soldstatus $270,000 Closed 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Renovated townhome move-in ready! Freshly painted throughout this home includes new kitchen granite countertops and brand new flooring throughout! This three bedroom home is located in convenient location just mins. from downtown, shopping and I-95!

6. 2022-09-15
   historical Active Under Contract 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Renovated townhome move-in ready! Freshly painted throughout this home includes new kitchen granite countertops and brand new flooring throughout! This three bedroom home is located in convenient location just mins. from downtown, shopping and I-95!

7. 2022-09-13
   listed $269,900 Active 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Renovated townhome move-in ready! Freshly painted throughout this home includes new kitchen granite countertops and brand new flooring throughout! This three bedroom home is located in convenient location just mins. from downtown, shopping and I-95!

8. 2022-09-09
   historical $269,900 249-char remark

   Show marketing remark (249 chars)

   Renovated townhome move-in ready! Freshly painted throughout this home includes new kitchen granite countertops and brand new flooring throughout! This three bedroom home is located in convenient location just mins. from downtown, shopping and I-95!

9. 2006-04-20
   soldstatus $222,500
10. 2006-04-19
    soldstatus $222,500 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Cute as can be and perfect for 1st time homeowners! Townhome has been freshly painted and has new carpet & vinyl. Hardwood floors in LR w/ Bay Window, eat-in open kitchen w/ island, fenced rear yard, 3 BR's and conveniently located to F'burg, shopping and VRE!

11. 2006-03-05
    historical 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Cute as can be and perfect for 1st time homeowners! Townhome has been freshly painted and has new carpet & vinyl. Hardwood floors in LR w/ Bay Window, eat-in open kitchen w/ island, fenced rear yard, 3 BR's and conveniently located to F'burg, shopping and VRE!

12. 2006-03-01
    listed $222,500 266-char remark

    Show marketing remark (266 chars)

    Cute as can be and perfect for 1st time homeowners! Townhome has been freshly painted and has new carpet & vinyl. Hardwood floors in LR w/ Bay Window, eat-in open kitchen w/ island, fenced rear yard, 3 BR's and conveniently located to F'burg, shopping and VRE!

13. 1997-09-08
    soldstatus $106,722

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,773 · $148/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,378 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: +$605/yr (+$50/mo · 34.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$1,773
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,146
• − Management: −$2,146
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$6,332
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,520
• After-tax cash flow: $278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spotsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103640
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,321
• Composite: 55.79/100
• National rank: #1213
• State rank: #38 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #299
• US rank: #10735

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Spotsylvania County · 138,364 people
• City population: 207,206
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 31,586
• Household income: $110,112
• Rent vs Own: 22.1% rent · 77.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 657.0

Population outlook (Spotsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 146,292 people
• By 2030: 153,092 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 164,270 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 171,000 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 183,080 · +25.1%
• By 2100: 180,412 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Spotsylvania

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.6) · D 45.1% · R 53.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.7pp toward R · 2008: -6.9pp · 2024: -8.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.6 2020: R+6.8 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+6.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.72%
• Current HPI: 259.5759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+171.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-09 Listed $290,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-20 Coming Soon $290,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $270,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-03 Sold (MLS) $270,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-15 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-13 Listed $269,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2022-09-09 Coming Soon $269,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-04-20 Sold (Public Records) $222,500 Public Records
• 2006-04-19 Sold (MLS) $222,500 MRIS
• 2006-03-05 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-03-01 Listed $222,500 MRIS
• 1997-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $106,722 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,773 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.