4736 South St · Millburg, MI 49022

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1952 9,349 sqft lot $120/sqft · 17% below area Est $198k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BACK ON MARKET! DUE TO NO FAULT OF SELLER OR THE HOME! Make this charming ranch style home that's nestled in the heart of country living, yours today! MOTIVATED SELLERS! Move in ready and lots of updates! Roof, windows, septic system, soffit and fascia, window trim, gutters and gutter guards, exterior doors and wood grain vinyl flooring all within the last 3 years! Including a brand new privacy fence, mudd/ laundry room drywall & paint, and freshly painted interior! Make this home yours today!!

Key facts

• 9,349 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1952

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-15 ($-178/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (19.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $132k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Benton Harbor Area Schools (urban): math 4% / reading 7% proficiency, ranked #732 of 760 in MI (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 89% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fair Plain Middle School (math 0% / reading 4%, grade F, #493 of 493 statewide, top 100%, 288 students, 97% FRL); Fair Plain Middle School (math 0% / reading 4%, grade F, #493 of 493 statewide, top 100%, 288 students, 97% FRL); Benton Harbor High School (math 5% / reading 5%, grade F, #704 of 713 statewide, top 100%, 495 students, 97% FRL).
• Market conditions: 184 active listings in the ZIP; 397 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Berrien County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $165k implies a 859% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $132,397 (19.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.39%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,935
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -16.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
481 N 2nd St	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,248 (-9%)	7mo	$172,000	$138	71
4471 Highland Ave	0.55mi	2/1.0	1,428 (+4%)	10mo	$203,000	$142	59
5030 N Branch Rd	0.40mi	2/1.5	1,430 (+4%)	18mo	$195,000	$136	58
5253 Territorial Road Rd	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,276 (-7%)	7mo	$105,000	$82	54
4713 North St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,208 (-12%)	14mo	$199,000	$165	53
121 Millburg Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,444 (+5%)	23mo	$185,000	$128	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-27,713
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-25,468
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49022

• Active inventory: 184
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,324 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$127 /mo · $1,521/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,343

Max offer price $162,374

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $32	+0% $-15	+5% $-62	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-119	-5% $-67	+0% $-15	+5% $37	+10% $90
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $27	base $-15	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-06
    historical Accepting Backup Offers 449-char remark
14. 2026-05-06
    historical Active Under Contract 449-char remark
15. 2026-05-06
    historical Active - Backup Offers Accepted
16. 2026-04-21
    listed $165,000 Active 449-char remark
17. 2026-04-21
    listed $165,000 Active 449-char remark
18. 2026-04-21
    listed $165,000 Active
19. 2017-02-10
    soldstatus $17,200
20. 2017-02-10
    soldstatus $17,200 Sold
21. 2017-02-09
    status Pending
22. 2016-07-29
    historical Active Backup
23. 2016-04-08
    listed $32,900 Active
24. 2016-04-08
    listed $32,900
25. 2009-07-31
    soldstatus $16,000
26. 2009-07-31
    soldstatus $16,000
27. 2009-01-06
    listed $19,900
28. 2009-01-06
    listed $19,900
29. 2002-05-10
    soldstatus $59,500
30. 2002-05-10
    soldstatus $59,500
31. 2002-03-19
    listed $60,000
32. 2002-03-19
    listed $60,000
33. 1998-10-09
    soldstatus $34,000
34. 1998-10-09
    soldstatus $34,000
35. 1998-08-25
    listed $43,500
36. 1998-08-25
    listed $43,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,521 · $127/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,031 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$510/yr (+$42/mo · 33.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,521
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,271
• − Management: −$1,271
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,043
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$730
• After-tax cash flow: $552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Benton Harbor Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2604830
• Math proficiency: 4% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $27,038
• Composite: 7.53/100
• National rank: #14787
• State rank: #732 of 760 in MI

Livability — Millburg

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Millburg, MI
• Population (ZIP): 29,796

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 149,273 people
• By 2030: 145,211 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 135,435 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 125,543 · -15.9%
• By 2075: 103,986 · -30.3%
• By 2100: 82,256 · -44.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 50% White 37% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: R+7.4 2016: R+12.7 2012: R+6.6 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -309.81%
• Current HPI: 209.9723
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+279.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-19 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-06 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-21 Listed $165,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-21 Listed $165,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-02-10 Sold (MLS) $17,200 SW Michigan MLS
• 2017-02-10 Sold (MLS) $17,200 REALCOMP
• 2017-02-09 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2016-07-29 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2016-04-08 Listed $32,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2016-04-08 Listed $32,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-07-31 Sold (MLS) $16,000 REALCOMP
• 2009-07-31 Sold (MLS) $16,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2009-01-06 Listed $19,900 REALCOMP
• 2009-01-06 Listed $19,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2002-05-10 Sold (MLS) $59,500 REALCOMP
• 2002-05-10 Sold (MLS) $59,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2002-03-19 Listed $60,000 REALCOMP
• 2002-03-19 Listed $60,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 1998-10-09 Sold (MLS) $34,000 REALCOMP
• 1998-10-09 Sold (MLS) $34,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 1998-08-25 Listed $43,500 REALCOMP
• 1998-08-25 Listed $43,500 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,521 · -4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.