16599 Parker Rd · Sackets Harbor, NY 13601

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily · 136 Days on market

Built 1985 Poor condition $62/sqft · 81% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home will need to be completely remodeled on the inside. We are in the process of assessing the condition of the home and as far as we understand, the roof does not leak and the walls are solid. It will need some work with new soffit and facia and front door. The inside will need to be gutted down to the two by fours and probably need new electrical and plumbing. this home is in a nice neighborhood and all of the surrounding homes are in good shape with a beautiful view of a farm field in the back.

Key facts

• Walls are solid
• Roof does not leak
• New soffit and facia

Tags

• ROOF DOES NOT LEAK
• WALLS ARE SOLID
• NEW SOFFIT AND FACIA
• BEAUTIFUL VIEW OF A FARM FIELD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $884 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $57k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 22.6% vs local median 2.7% in Sackets Harbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#419 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: cost of living D, health & safety D, amenities F.
• Sackets Harbor Central School District (rural): math 62% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #294 of 755 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($59k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($57k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $57,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 22.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 58.31%
• DSCR: 3.59
• GRM: 3.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,019
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -80.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 62.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $54,736
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.7%
• Equity multiple: 9.84×
• Total profit: $160,893
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 3.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $884

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 43%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $929	-5% $907	+0% $884	+5% $862	+10% $839
Rent	-10% $751	-5% $818	+0% $884	+5% $951	+10% $1,018
Rate	-1.0pp $917	-0.5pp $901	base $884	+0.5pp $867	+1.0pp $850

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $65,000 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $65,000 Active 135 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $65,000 Active 134 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $65,000 Active 133 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $65,000 Active 132 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $65,000 Active 130 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $65,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $65,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $65,000 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-02-02
    listed $65,000 Active 508-char remark

    Show marketing remark (508 chars)

    This home will need to be completely remodeled on the inside. We are in the process of assessing the condition of the home and as far as we understand, the roof does not leak and the walls are solid. It will need some work with new soffit and facia and front door. The inside will need to be gutted down to the two by fours and probably need new electrical and plumbing. this home is in a nice neighborhood and all of the surrounding homes are in good shape with a beautiful view of a farm field in the back.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $10,183
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,444
• After-tax cash flow: $8,168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Poor 20/100 Gut rehab

This property requires extensive gut renovation, including exterior siding, roof, and fence repairs. Immediate snow removal is needed for safety and accessibility. Significant value can be added through these repairs and improvements.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant damage and snow accumulation
• Major roof — Snow-covered roof with visible damage
• Major exterior fence — Overgrown vegetation and snow accumulation

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both roof repair — Prevents water damage and improves structural integrity
• Both fence repair — Enhances property boundary and security

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant damage and snow accumulation	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Snow-covered roof with visible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior fence · Overgrown vegetation and snow accumulation	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both roof repair — Prevents water damage and improves structural integrity ↑
• Both fence repair — Enhances property boundary and security ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sackets Harbor Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614880
• Math proficiency: 62% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $56,831
• Composite: 51.78/100
• National rank: #3595
• State rank: #294 of 755 in NY

Livability — Sackets Harbor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #7271

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $65,000 Fizber.com