301 S Main St Lot 6 · Botsford, CT 06470

$199,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 880 sqft · SingleFamily · 34 Days on market

Built 2026 $625/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW UNIT! LAST unit on the right rear of the park. One of the BEST spots in Park! Located in the well maintained Newtown Village in a professionally managed Park. Beautiful 2-bedroom, 2-full Baths, Kitchen and Living room have an open floor plan and LR has a technology wall for your convenience and built-in bookshelves. Primary bedroom has a full bath with step-in shower stall with glass doors. 2nd full bath is in the hallway close to the 2nd bedroom, this bath has a tub/shower set-up. Actual SF of unit is 880sf (town records reflect previous unit on this lot)

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Technology wall
• Step-in shower stall

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• TECHNOLOGY WALL
• BUILT-IN BOOKSHELVES
• STEP-IN SHOWER STALL
• GLASS DOORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $125 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $194k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Newtown School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #24 of 153 in CT (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Newtown High School (math 60% / reading 79%, grade B, #18 of 194 statewide, top 10%, 1,325 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 81 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.

Recommended offer $193,903 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $114,400
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 S Main St Lot 21A	0.11mi	2/1.0	784 (-11%)	5mo	$90,000	$115	69
301 S Main St Lot 18	0.11mi	2/1.0	784 (-11%)	16mo	$102,000	$130	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-23,994
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,900
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06470

• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,698 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $2,998/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$625
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $125

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,540

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3 Botsford Hill Rd Newtown, CT	2.0	1.0	1052	$2,800	$2.66	43d	1	0.09mi
92 Huntingtown Rd Newtown, CT	2.0	1.0	834	$1,850	$2.22	3d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $625 · $7,500/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-02-17
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-01-14
   listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,380
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,998
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,590
• − Management: −$2,590
• − HOA: −$7,500
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,312
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$315
• After-tax cash flow: $1,817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newtown School District
• NCES district ID: 0902910
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $110,184
• Composite: 60.11/100
• National rank: #870
• State rank: #24 of 153 in CT

Livability — Botsford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,576

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.23%
• Current HPI: 209.6686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-17 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $199,900 Smart MLS