6614 Elmwood St · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40216

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,030 sqft · SingleFamily · 11 Days on market

Built 2007 7,553 sqft lot Est $178k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Come check out this 3 bedroom 1 bath home. You cannot beat the price on this fixer upper. This home is on a quiet street, fenced backyard and mature trees. Due to the condition of this home the seller cannot accept financed offers. Only cash offers will be evaluated by seller.

Key facts

• Private yard
• 7,553 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• PRIVATE YARD
• LOW MAINTENANCE LIVING
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• EASY ACCESS TO SCHOOLS
• EASY ACCESS TO EXPRESSWAYS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee; Subdivision: MELROSE AND FLAGLER

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-family ranch-style home; One story; Built in 2007
• Construction: Vinyl siding with wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation
• Exterior features: Privacy wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Four closets; No basement
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $176 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (4.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 204 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $140k implies a 250% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $133,753 (4.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $178,190
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6613 Kenmore Ave	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,007 (-2%)	13mo	$211,000	$210	84
6609 Kenmore Ave	0.05mi	3/1.0	902 (-12%)	13mo	$175,000	$194	66
6713 Flagler Ave	0.23mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,075 (+4%)	12mo	$90,000	$84	65
6603 Melrose Ave	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,147 (+11%)	5mo	$197,000	$172	62
6501 Melrose Ave	0.22mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,083 (+5%)	19mo	$175,000	$162	61
4423 Wilshire Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	976 (-5%)	16mo	$170,000	$174	57
4401 Wilshire Ave	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	952 (-8%)	20mo	$165,000	$173	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.57% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-14,655
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-10,901
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40216

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,338 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,059/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$281
• Net cashflow: $176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,114

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $256	-5% $216	+0% $176	+5% $137	+10% $97
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $124	+0% $176	+5% $229	+10% $282
Rate	-1.0pp $247	-0.5pp $212	base $176	+0.5pp $140	+1.0pp $103

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5010 Kaufman Ln Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$1,402	$1.30	2d	3	0.98mi
3219 Wilkie Rd Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	725	$1,350	$1.86	11d	1	1.19mi
3204 Melody Acres Ln Unit 3202-3 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	24d	1	1.39mi
4406 Clarene Dr Louisville, KY	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,400	$1.33	16d	1	1.49mi
6516 Hackel Dr Apt 6 Louisville, KY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	3d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 6 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 651-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   listed $139,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,059 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,203 · $100/mo
• Expected delta: +$145/yr (+$12/mo · 13.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,050
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,059
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,284
• − Management: −$1,284
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$182
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$44
• After-tax cash flow: $2,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 44,047
• Household income: $56,441
• Rent vs Own: 33.9% rent · 66.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1434.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 43% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -234.72%
• Current HPI: 269.5447
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.57%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+210.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Listed $139,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-11-02 Listing Removed — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-10-01 Price Changed $94,999 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-10-01 Price Changed $99,995 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-10-01 Listed $94,999 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-10-01 Price Changed $103,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-06-26 Sold (MLS) $40,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2019-06-14 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2019-06-11 Listed $45,000 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,059 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.