51 County Road 2234 2 · Cleveland, TX 77327

$229,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2001 1.00 ac lot $153/sqft · 13% below area Est $265k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NICE HOME IN A GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD FEATURING HIGH CEILINGS AND ARCHES, CUSTOM CABINETS INCLUDING A BUILT IN COMPUTER DESK, LG MASTER BEDROOM W/WALK IN CLOSET, MASTER BATH W/SEPARATE SHOWER + TUB W/MARBLE SURROUND, UTILITY ROOM W/CUSTOM CABINETS, FENCED BACK YARD ON 1 ACRE. IN MAY 09 SELLER INSTALLED NEW CARPET, DID SOME CLEAN UP AND MAINTENANCE, AND IT IS MOVE IN READY.

Key facts

• Shaded pine trees
• Vaulted ceilings
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• FULL UNRESTRICTED ACRE
• HUGE FRONT AND BACK YARDS
• OPEN-AIR METAL CARPORT
• FULLY FENCED BACK YARD
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• SHADED PINE TREES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Carport for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Residential property; Single-level living (rooms listed on first floor); Brick construction; Faces unspecified direction
• Construction: Built in 2001; Brick exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Lot size about 1.0 acre

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 15.5 x 16.7); Second bedroom on the first floor (approx. 12 x 12); Third bedroom on the first floor (approx. 11.11 x 12)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Primary bathroom on the first floor (approx. 8.8 x 9.1); Additional bathroom on the first floor (approx. 4.11 x 8.1)
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Cleared lot setting

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $209k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.6% in Cleveland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tarkington ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #373 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tarkington Early Childhood School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 193 students, 66% FRL); Tarkington Middle (math 45% / reading 32%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 414 students, 58% FRL); Tarkington H S (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #821 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 513 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1577 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,311 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.22%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $265,448
• List price: $229,995
• Delta: -13.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
51 County Road 2234 2	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,508 (0%)	1mo	$229,995	$153	99
231 County Road 2234	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+0%)	0mo	$230,000	$152	93
15774 Highway 105	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,509 (+0%)	23mo	$285,000	$189	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-43,286
• Equity at exit: $34,293

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-40,910
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1577
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,191/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,774

Max offer price $208,985

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-54	+0% $-119	+5% $-184	+10% $-249
Rent	-10% $-247	-5% $-183	+0% $-119	+5% $-55	+10% $9
Rate	-1.0pp $-3	-0.5pp $-60	base $-119	+0.5pp $-179	+1.0pp $-239

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,499
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 809-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $229,995 Active 809-char remark
3. 2014-10-02
   soldstatus
4. 2009-06-08
   soldstatus
5. 2009-06-05
   soldstatus 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   NICE HOME IN A GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD FEATURING HIGH CEILINGS AND ARCHES, CUSTOM CABINETS INCLUDING A BUILT IN COMPUTER DESK, LG MASTER BEDROOM W/WALK IN CLOSET, MASTER BATH W/SEPARATE SHOWER + TUB W/MARBLE SURROUND, UTILITY ROOM W/CUSTOM CABINETS, FENCED BACK YARD ON 1 ACRE. IN MAY 09 SELLER INSTALLED NEW CARPET, DID SOME CLEAN UP AND MAINTENANCE, AND IT IS MOVE IN READY.

6. 2009-05-24
   historical 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   NICE HOME IN A GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD FEATURING HIGH CEILINGS AND ARCHES, CUSTOM CABINETS INCLUDING A BUILT IN COMPUTER DESK, LG MASTER BEDROOM W/WALK IN CLOSET, MASTER BATH W/SEPARATE SHOWER + TUB W/MARBLE SURROUND, UTILITY ROOM W/CUSTOM CABINETS, FENCED BACK YARD ON 1 ACRE. IN MAY 09 SELLER INSTALLED NEW CARPET, DID SOME CLEAN UP AND MAINTENANCE, AND IT IS MOVE IN READY.

7. 2008-07-27
   listed $122,500 372-char remark

   Show marketing remark (372 chars)

   NICE HOME IN A GREAT NEIGHBORHOOD FEATURING HIGH CEILINGS AND ARCHES, CUSTOM CABINETS INCLUDING A BUILT IN COMPUTER DESK, LG MASTER BEDROOM W/WALK IN CLOSET, MASTER BATH W/SEPARATE SHOWER + TUB W/MARBLE SURROUND, UTILITY ROOM W/CUSTOM CABINETS, FENCED BACK YARD ON 1 ACRE. IN MAY 09 SELLER INSTALLED NEW CARPET, DID SOME CLEAN UP AND MAINTENANCE, AND IT IS MOVE IN READY.

8. 2008-07-22
   historical
9. 2008-02-23
   listed $129,900
10. 2002-01-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,191 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,209 · $351/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,018/yr (+$252/mo · 253.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,477
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,883
• − Property taxes: −$1,191
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$5,554
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,333
• After-tax cash flow: $-94/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tarkington ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842210
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,895
• Composite: 35.02/100
• National rank: #5044
• State rank: #373 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+77.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $229,995 HARMLS
• 2014-10-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-06-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-05-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-07-27 Listed $122,500 HARMLS
• 2008-07-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-02-23 Listed $129,900 HARMLS
• 2002-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,191 · -64.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.