616 W Crawford St · Lakeland, FL 33805

$174,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 275 Days on market

Built 1920 8,999 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3/1 bath. Close to schools, bus lines and shopping. Bank owned.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Remodeled
• Move-in-ready

Tags

• REMODELED
• BRAND-NEW ROOF
• NEW AIR CONDITIONING SYSTEM
• NEW WATER HEATER
• QUIET STREET
• MOVE-IN-READY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RA-4; Lot approximately 0.21 acres (0 to less than 1/4 acre); Living area reported as 1,179 (owner) with total building area 1,336 (public records); Universal property identifier available; No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: No HOA/association indicated

Exterior

• Parking: No designated parking
• Utilities: Private water source; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Public utilities available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property; Facing north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Wood siding; Shingle roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built on or recorded as public records (building area source)
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; City limits lot; Paved lot; Asphalt road access; Publicly maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid wood cabinets
• Laundry & utility: No laundry features listed

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($953/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (14.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $149k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Dr. Ne Roberts Elementary School (math 45% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 691 students, 54% FRL); Lake Gibson Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 1,218 students, 56% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 58% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 164 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 275 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $175k implies a 2399% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,352 (14.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 275 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.95%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-26,604
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-29,693
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33805

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 164
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,494 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,324/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $79

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,393

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $178	-5% $129	+0% $79	+5% $30	+10% $-20
Rent	-10% $-39	-5% $20	+0% $79	+5% $138	+10% $197
Rate	-1.0pp $168	-0.5pp $124	base $79	+0.5pp $34	+1.0pp $-12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1704 Martin L King Jr Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1050	$5,000	$4.76	25d	1	0.16mi
820 W 13th St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	25d	1	0.22mi
1615 N New York Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	1300	$1,195	$0.92	25d	1	0.23mi
408 Bassedena Cir N Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1075	$1,825	$1.70	25d	1	0.46mi
123 Oconee St Unit 1368863P Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	990	$2,441	$2.47	13d	1	0.53mi
1031 N Florence Ave Unit NA Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,495	$1.36	16d	1	0.70mi
617 Lakehurst St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	21d	1	0.71mi
1550 Wright Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1139	$1,650	$1.45	23d	1	0.73mi
1211 Robert King High Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.5	1050	$1,625	$1.55	25d	1	0.75mi
720 Lakehurst St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1092	$1,750	$1.60	25d	1	0.78mi
721 E Lowell St Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,595	$1.23	25d	1	0.79mi
454 King Edward Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1048	$1,399	$1.33	4d	1	0.84mi
321 Queen Mary Loop Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1244	$1,599	$1.29	4d	1	0.85mi
321 Emma St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	730	$1,395	$1.91	25d	1	0.88mi
1480 Kathleen Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	868	$1,345	$1.55	5d	1	0.89mi
711 N Virginia Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	25d	1	0.89mi
850 Martin L King Jr Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1222	$1,495	$1.22	25d	1	0.89mi
809 Adams St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1164	$1,525	$1.31	16d	1	0.95mi
131 Pear St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	741	$950	$1.28	25d	1	1.03mi
310 Plum St Unit 7 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,200	$1.41	25d	1	1.04mi
1128 Neville Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1245	$1,900	$1.53	16d	1	1.05mi
1031 Neville Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	728	$1,375	$1.89	21d	1	1.09mi
1128 Roselle Ave Unit 1130 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	780	$1,200	$1.54	4d	1	1.09mi
3215 Baird Ave Lakeland, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	794	$1,250	$1.57	15d	4	1.10mi
1105 Jewel Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	987	$1,200	$1.22	25d	1	1.16mi
929 Gilmore Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–1.5	620	$1,280	$2.06	4d	20	1.21mi
1027 N Brunnell Pkwy Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	826	$1,050	$1.27	4d	1	1.24mi
1137 Edith Ave Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,800	$1.64	5d	1	1.33mi
1035 N Davis Ave Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	870	$1,150	$1.32	21d	1	1.36mi
620 N Lake Ave Unit 2 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,100	$1.45	5d	1	1.36mi
620 N Lake Ave Unit 3 Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	760	$1,175	$1.55	16d	1	1.36mi
609 N Stella Ave Apt A Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	735	$1,100	$1.50	25d	1	1.37mi
270 E Bay St Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$1,725	$1.93	5d	6	1.39mi
921 E Parker St Lakeland, FL	1.0	1.0	715	$1,150	$1.61	15d	1	1.45mi
600 E Bay St Lakeland, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	914	$2,166	$2.37	5d	29	1.48mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $174,900 Active 275 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 269 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,900 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 264 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 263 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 262 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Active 261 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $174,900 Active 258 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 256 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 255 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 254 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $174,900
16. 2026-03-30
    price $190,000
17. 2026-02-24
    status Active
18. 2026-02-10
    status Pending
19. 2025-09-13
    status Active
20. 2025-09-02
    status Pending
21. 2025-08-27
    listed $200,000 Active
22. 2025-05-09
    historical
23. 2025-02-12
    status Active
24. 2025-01-23
    status Pending
25. 2024-08-27
    status Active
26. 2024-07-25
    status Pending
27. 2024-02-09
    listed $275,000 Active
28. 2009-07-16
    soldstatus $7,000 63-char remark

    Show marketing remark (63 chars)

    3/1 bath. Close to schools, bus lines and shopping. Bank owned.

29. 2009-03-02
    listed $6,900 63-char remark

    Show marketing remark (63 chars)

    3/1 bath. Close to schools, bus lines and shopping. Bank owned.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,324 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$127/yr (+$11/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,922
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$1,324
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,434
• − Management: −$1,434
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable loss: −$2,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$487
• After-tax cash flow: $1,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,751
• Household income: $62,661
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1179.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 37% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 8% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -158.44%
• Current HPI: 372.7317
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.77%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2434.8% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $174,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $190,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-10 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-27 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-27 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-07-25 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-09 Listed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-07-16 Sold (MLS) $7,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-03-02 Listed $6,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,324 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.