531 Bear Dr · Tiffin, IA 52340

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,579 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2008 7,000 sqft lot Est $279k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This immaculate, one owner, zero lot in Tiffin is perfect for those seeking one level living. A new owner will enjoy the open concept great room/ dining/ kitchen combo with breakfast bar, 3 beds, 1 3/4 baths, fireplace and patio. All window treatments and appliances remain including washer, dryer and counter microwave. Zero entry and the fully tiled, wheel chair accessible bath offer additional conveniences . A 3 car garage (one tandem) and storm sheltered closet are added "perks".

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2008

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Rolling Hills Estates subdivision; Directions: Located on Bear Dr. between Croell Ave. and Iris Ave.
• HOA & community: Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 3 parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors; Contaminant control for improved indoor air quality
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential zero-lot property; Single-story; Built by Gericke
• Construction: Vinyl siding with frame construction; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Sidewalks; Street lights

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Breakfast bar; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile; Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric and natural gas heating; Forced air heat
• Interior features: Kitchen island; High ceilings; Entrance foyer; Breakfast bar; Pantry; Main-level primary suite; Smart thermostat; Double pane windows; Factory-built gas fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry room on main and lower levels

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-67 ($-810/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (4.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $239k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $239k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Tiffin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#220 in IA, #4,085 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Clear Creek Amana Community School District (rural): math 73% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #72 of 289 in IA (top 25%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Tiffin Elementary (math 67% / reading 52%, grade B-, #390 of 616 statewide, top 69%, 400 students, 30% FRL); Clear Creek Amana Middle School (math 76% / reading 76%, grade A, #59 of 246 statewide, top 26%, 640 students, 29% FRL); Clear Creek Amana High School (math 71% / reading 85%, grade A-, #53 of 336 statewide, top 16%, 728 students, 23% FRL).
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 714 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (158 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $208k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $239,137 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.01%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,483
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
531 Bear Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,579 (0%)	1mo	$285,000	$180	100
724 Maddie Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-5%)	1mo	$388,990	$260	77
220 Summerhays St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,444 (-8%)	1mo	$289,900	$201	63
1100 Creekside Dr	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,805 (+14%)	2mo	$307,500	$170	52
1008 Creekside Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,805 (+14%)	0mo	$305,000	$169	50
910 Hillside Dr	0.45mi	3/3.0	1,811 (+15%)	1mo	$306,000	$169	50
1028 Creekside Dr	0.46mi	3/3.0	1,811 (+15%)	2mo	$302,500	$167	49
1906 Croell Ave	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,739 (+10%)	1mo	$307,500	$177	48
304 Nightingale Dr	0.47mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,766 (+12%)	2mo	$351,000	$199	48
1922 Croell Ave	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,739 (+10%)	0mo	$307,500	$177	47
500 Elizabeth Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,802 (+14%)	1mo	$315,000	$175	46
1904 Croell Ave	0.71mi	3/2.5	1,739 (+10%)	3mo	$307,500	$177	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-50,451
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-49,351
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 52340

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,391 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$343 /mo · $4,120/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$502
• Net cashflow: $-67

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,477

Max offer price $273,081

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $13	+0% $-67	+5% $-148	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-256	-5% $-162	+0% $-67	+5% $27	+10% $121
Rate	-1.0pp $76	-0.5pp $5	base $-67	+0.5pp $-141	+1.0pp $-216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
628 Catherine Dr Tiffin, IA	3.0	3.5	1795	$2,350	$1.31	15d	1	0.34mi
630 Catherine Dr Tiffin, IA	3.0	3.5	1795	$2,350	$1.31	15d	1	0.34mi
425 Bainberry St Tiffin, IA	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,045	$1.17	45d	2	1.21mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-05
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-03
   listed $285,000 Active
3. 2018-09-13
   soldstatus $208,000 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   This immaculate, one owner, zero lot in Tiffin is perfect for those seeking one level living. A new owner will enjoy the open concept great room/ dining/ kitchen combo with breakfast bar, 3 beds, 1 3/4 baths, fireplace and patio. All window treatments and appliances remain including washer, dryer and counter microwave. Zero entry and the fully tiled, wheel chair accessible bath offer additional conveniences . A 3 car garage (one tandem) and storm sheltered closet are added "perks".

4. 2018-08-23
   price $212,000 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   This immaculate, one owner, zero lot in Tiffin is perfect for those seeking one level living. A new owner will enjoy the open concept great room/ dining/ kitchen combo with breakfast bar, 3 beds, 1 3/4 baths, fireplace and patio. All window treatments and appliances remain including washer, dryer and counter microwave. Zero entry and the fully tiled, wheel chair accessible bath offer additional conveniences . A 3 car garage (one tandem) and storm sheltered closet are added "perks".

5. 2018-07-16
   listed $208,000 496-char remark

   Show marketing remark (496 chars)

   This immaculate, one owner, zero lot in Tiffin is perfect for those seeking one level living. A new owner will enjoy the open concept great room/ dining/ kitchen combo with breakfast bar, 3 beds, 1 3/4 baths, fireplace and patio. All window treatments and appliances remain including washer, dryer and counter microwave. Zero entry and the fully tiled, wheel chair accessible bath offer additional conveniences . A 3 car garage (one tandem) and storm sheltered closet are added "perks".

6. 2009-02-11
   soldstatus $172,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,120 · $343/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,297 · $358/mo
• Expected delta: +$177/yr (+$15/mo · 4.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$4,120
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,296
• − Management: −$2,296
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$5,695
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,367
• After-tax cash flow: $557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clear Creek Amana Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1907590
• Math proficiency: 73% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $62,915
• Composite: 63.92/100
• National rank: #586
• State rank: #72 of 289 in IA

Livability — Tiffin

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #4085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tiffin, IA
• County: Johnson County · 132,710 people
• City population: 6,128
• Metro: Iowa City, IA
• Population (ZIP): 6,128
• Household income: $98,393
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 149.0

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,405 people
• By 2030: 200,014 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 241,428 · +33.8%
• By 2050: 288,144 · +59.7%
• By 2075: 420,009 · +132.8%
• By 2100: 546,596 · +203.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, United Kingdom, Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.1) · D 68.4% · R 30.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 41.5pp · 2024: 38.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.1 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+38.3 2012: D+35.4 2008: D+41.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.59%
• Current HPI: 172.251
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Iowa City, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+65.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Pending — ICAARMLS
• 2026-05-03 Listed $285,000 ICAARMLS
• 2018-09-13 Sold (MLS) $208,000 ICAARMLS
• 2018-08-23 Price Changed $212,000 ICAARMLS
• 2018-07-16 Listed $208,000 ICAARMLS
• 2009-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,120 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.