42702 Mystery Ln · Magnolia, TX 77354

$324,990

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,049 sqft · Land · 88 Days on market

Built 2026 6,120 sqft lot $159/sqft · 10% below area Est $360k · 10% under $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Carmine floor plan is a thoughtfully designed single-story home featuring four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Its open layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-appointed bathroom, while the additional bedrooms offer versatility for family, guests, or a home office. A spacious three-car garage adds extra convenience and storage, making this home both stylish and functional. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary

Key facts

• Mega walk-in shower
• Covered patio
• Dedicated study

Tags

• DEDICATED STUDY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• MEGA WALK-IN SHOWER
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-377 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (20.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.4% in Magnolia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#222 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $209,354 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.97%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $360,490
• List price: $324,990
• Delta: -9.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $147,385
• Equity at exit: $292,777

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 5.87×
• Total profit: $442,729
• Equity at exit: $631,384

Cash invested: $90,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,094 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,395/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $-377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,571

Max offer price $258,382

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-193	-5% $-285	+0% $-377	+5% $-469	+10% $-561
Rent	-10% $-542	-5% $-460	+0% $-377	+5% $-294	+10% $-212
Rate	-1.0pp $-213	-0.5pp $-294	base $-377	+0.5pp $-461	+1.0pp $-547

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,248
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $324,990 Active 88 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $324,990 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $324,990 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $324,990 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $324,990 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $324,990 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $329,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $329,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $329,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $329,990 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $329,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $329,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,990 Active 67 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    price $329,990 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully designed single-story home offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a dedicated study—perfect for working from home or creating your own private retreat. This home features an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating an inviting space ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The dining area flows naturally into the heart of the home, making gatherings effortless and enjoyable. The primary suite is a true sanctuary, highlighted by a luxurious mega walk-in shower that brings a spa-like experience right to your doorstep. Each additional bedroom is generously sized with access to well-appointed bathrooms, ensuring comfort and privacy for family and guests. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio—perfect for relaxing evenings, outdoor dining, or weekend get-togethers year-round. With thoughtful design, modern comfort this home offers everything you’ve been looking for in a single-story layout.

16. 2026-05-15
    price $329,990 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully designed single-story home offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a dedicated study—perfect for working from home or creating your own private retreat. This home features an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating an inviting space ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The dining area flows naturally into the heart of the home, making gatherings effortless and enjoyable. The primary suite is a true sanctuary, highlighted by a luxurious mega walk-in shower that brings a spa-like experience right to your doorstep. Each additional bedroom is generously sized with access to well-appointed bathrooms, ensuring comfort and privacy for family and guests. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio—perfect for relaxing evenings, outdoor dining, or weekend get-togethers year-round. With thoughtful design, modern comfort this home offers everything you’ve been looking for in a single-story layout.

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $339,990 Active 1018-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1018 chars)

    Welcome to this beautifully designed single-story home offering 3 spacious bedrooms, 3 full bathrooms, and a dedicated study—perfect for working from home or creating your own private retreat. This home features an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas, creating an inviting space ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The dining area flows naturally into the heart of the home, making gatherings effortless and enjoyable. The primary suite is a true sanctuary, highlighted by a luxurious mega walk-in shower that brings a spa-like experience right to your doorstep. Each additional bedroom is generously sized with access to well-appointed bathrooms, ensuring comfort and privacy for family and guests. Step outside to enjoy the covered patio—perfect for relaxing evenings, outdoor dining, or weekend get-togethers year-round. With thoughtful design, modern comfort this home offers everything you’ve been looking for in a single-story layout.

18. 2026-03-20
    price $339,990 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    The Carmine floor plan is a thoughtfully designed single-story home featuring four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Its open layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-appointed bathroom, while the additional bedrooms offer versatility for family, guests, or a home office. A spacious three-car garage adds extra convenience and storage, making this home both stylish and functional. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary

19. 2026-03-03
    price $360,525 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    The Carmine floor plan is a thoughtfully designed single-story home featuring four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Its open layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-appointed bathroom, while the additional bedrooms offer versatility for family, guests, or a home office. A spacious three-car garage adds extra convenience and storage, making this home both stylish and functional. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary

20. 2026-02-26
    listed $358,525 Active 647-char remark

    Show marketing remark (647 chars)

    The Carmine floor plan is a thoughtfully designed single-story home featuring four bedrooms and three bathrooms. Its open layout seamlessly connects the kitchen, dining, and living areas, making it perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite provides a private retreat with a well-appointed bathroom, while the additional bedrooms offer versatility for family, guests, or a home office. A spacious three-car garage adds extra convenience and storage, making this home both stylish and functional. * Photos and Virtual Tours may be of the same home plan located in a different neighborhood. Features and elevations may vary

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,395 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,947 · $496/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,552/yr (+$379/mo · 326.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,122
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,204
• − Property taxes: −$1,395
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,010
• − Management: −$2,010
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$9,454
• Taxable loss: −$10,476
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,514
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,010/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Magnolia

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #222
• US rank: #5442

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 32,847
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $329,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $329,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $339,990 HARMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $339,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $360,525 Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Listed $358,525 Zillow