5450 Samuel St · Wildwood, FL 32163

$419,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,642 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 2019 5,709 sqft lot Est $417k · at est. $204/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

* * NEW PRICE! * * RARE & STUNNING!! * * 3 Bed / 2Bath "MELROSE" Courtyard Villa in desirable Village of Marsh Bend. Beautiful low-maintenance landscaping & updated hardscaping greets you upon approach to this SPACIOUS 1642 sq. ft. home & built in 2019. This sought-after villa features an OPEN FLOORPLAN & Loads of UPDATES throughout including: LUXURY VINYL PLANK flooring & Repainted Interior throughout, QUARTZ Countertops with Updated Sinks & Faucets in Kitchen & Both Bathrooms, Inside Laundry Room with Shelving, Double Closet at Entry for Coats/Storage, LARGE Kitchen PANTRY with Shelving & Drawers, Stainless Steel Appliances wit

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open floorplan
• Updated hardscaping

Tags

• LOW-MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• UPDATED HARDSCAPING
• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• INSIDE LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total building area reported as 2364 square feet; Living area reported as 1642 square feet; Unit is unfurnished
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA fees include pool and recreational facilities; Community amenities: deed restrictions, dog park, golf, golf carts allowed, park, racquetball, sidewalks, tennis courts; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 22)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Cable connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Sprinkler recycled
• Home design: Residential villa; One story; Builder model: MELROSE; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on lot of approximately 0.13 acres
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Paved road access; Irrigation (reclaimed water available through community)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Stone counters; Thermostat; Tray ceiling; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas dryer hookup; Inside laundry room; Irrigation equipment

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-152 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $393k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $357k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $357k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.9% in Wildwood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#471 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, crime A-; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 265 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $45k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $42k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$72k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($395k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $356,695 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.56%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,068
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5511 Head Way	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+4%)	1mo	$390,000	$228	83
5409 Samuel St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,806 (+10%)	14mo	$579,000	$321	68
2170 Biller Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-6%)	12mo	$403,000	$262	63
2160 Biller Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,791 (+9%)	7mo	$455,000	$254	62
2061 Biller Cir	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,459 (-11%)	10mo	$322,000	$221	61
5311 Eads Ter	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,431 (-13%)	9mo	$439,900	$307	59
5778 Henry Loop	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-7%)	6mo	$430,000	$281	56
5705 Craft Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,426 (-13%)	0mo	$280,000	$196	50
5859 Tupelo Ter	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-14%)	1mo	$342,000	$243	44
5325 Zisa Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,854 (+13%)	10mo	$495,000	$267	42
5829 Tupelo Ter	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,409 (-14%)	11mo	$355,000	$252	39
1930 Rhett Rd	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-13%)	12mo	$300,000	$209	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.86×
• Total profit: $219,080
• Equity at exit: $378,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $652,976
• Equity at exit: $815,773

Cash invested: $117,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32163

• Home prices YoY: 9.8%
• Active inventory: 265
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,567 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,202
• Tax from tax record: −$389 /mo · $4,672/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$749
• Net cashflow: $-152

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,760

Max offer price $392,983

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,975
• Closing costs: $12,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5828 Tupelo Ter Unit Posted to Internet Wildwood, FL	2.0	2.0	1147	$4,500	$3.92	21d	1	0.61mi
2408 Woods Way The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1419	$2,900	$2.04	21d	1	0.65mi
1750 Debellis Ln Unit Posted To Internet Sumterville, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$4,250	$2.82	21d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $419,900 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,900 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,900 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,900 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,900 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $419,900 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $419,900 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $425,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $425,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $425,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $425,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $425,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $425,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $425,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $425,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $425,000
17. 2026-05-04
    price $435,000
18. 2026-04-15
    listed $450,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,672 · $389/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,672 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,521
• − Property taxes: −$4,672
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,424
• − Management: −$3,424
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$12,215
• Taxable loss: −$9,000
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,160
• After-tax cash flow: $332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wildwood

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #8500

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wildwood, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 21,568
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,549
• Household income: $96,775
• Rent vs Own: 5.7% rent · 94.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.47%
• Current HPI: 229.0075
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $425,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $435,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $450,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+35.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,672 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.