104 Lexington Rd · South Burlington, VT 05446

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1984 Est $110k · 36% under $542/mo HOA · 26% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity knocks at 104 Lexington Road, a 1984 two-bedroom, one-bathroom single-wide home nestled on a remarkably private lot with beautiful front and backyards in Colchester’s highly desirable, resident-owned Westbury community. Being sold strictly as-is with all contents included, this property does require some TLC, but it offers a functional layout with a previously renovated bathroom, a large front and back deck, a spacious storage shed, and a steady ramp leading directly to the main entrance. Residents of this premier cooperative enjoy a inclusive lot rent covering plowing, road maintenance, trash, and recycling, alongside fantastic, shared neighborhood amenities like an outdo

Key facts

• Private lot
• Renovated bathroom
• Basketball courts

Tags

• PRIVATE LOT
• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• LARGE FRONT AND BACK DECK
• SPACIOUS STORAGE SHED
• OUTDOOR SWIMMING POOL
• BASKETBALL COURTS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly park/association fee of $542; Fee includes plowing, recreation, sewer, trash, water, and park rent; Association amenities include master insurance, in-ground pool, basketball court, tennis court, snow removal, and trash removal

Exterior

• Utilities: Community water; Community sewer; Circuit breaker electrical service; No listed other utilities
• Home design: Single wide mobile home; Entry and living spaces on the main level
• Construction: Built in 1984; Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Paved road frontage; Mobile park approval (Westbury Park)

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One 3/4 bath
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: 4 total rooms; Living Room; Eat-in Kitchen; 3/4 Bath

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $703 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 2.5% in South Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#4 in VT, #765 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime D-, cost of living D-.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $22k; list at $70k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 26% of rent.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 43.02%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $109,928
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Brennan St	0.16mi	2/1.0	826 (+14%)	20mo	$125,000	$151	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $33,746
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.51×
• Total profit: $88,367
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05446

• Home prices YoY: -24.4%
• Active inventory: 89
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,120 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $404/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$542
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$445
• Net cashflow: $703

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,230

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $742	-5% $723	+0% $703	+5% $683	+10% $663
Rent	-10% $535	-5% $619	+0% $703	+5% $786	+10% $870
Rate	-1.0pp $738	-0.5pp $721	base $703	+0.5pp $685	+1.0pp $666

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $542 · $6,504/yr
• Likely covers: trash

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 693-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $70,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $404 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $867 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$463/yr (+$39/mo · 114.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,438
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$404
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,035
• − Management: −$2,035
• − HOA: −$6,504
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $8,152
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,957
• After-tax cash flow: $6,476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — South Burlington

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #765

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime D- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chittenden County · 110,603 people
• City population: 20,614
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• Population (ZIP): 16,452
• Household income: $97,475
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 259.0

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 14% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, India, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.02%
• Current HPI: 406.7675
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Burlington-South Burlington, VT
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+218.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $70,000 PrimeMLS
• 2010-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $22,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $404 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.