103 E Deerfield · Kerrville, TX 78028

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 36 Days on market

Built 2018

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Cable available; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home (sold with real property); Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $134 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 2.1% in Kerrville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#25 in TX, #1,483 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, commute F.
• Kerrville ISD (town): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #220 of 826 in TX (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 753 active listings in the ZIP; 422 units permitted in Kerr County in 2024 (322 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kerr County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,832 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.68%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-26,338
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-12,159
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78028

• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 753
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $451/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $134

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,588

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $256	-5% $195	+0% $134	+5% $-171	+10% $-245
Rent	-10% $-4	-5% $65	+0% $134	+5% $204	+10% $273
Rate	-1.0pp $243	-0.5pp $189	base $134	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $22

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $215,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $215,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $215,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $215,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $215,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $215,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $215,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $215,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $215,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $215,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $215,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $215,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $215,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $215,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $215,000 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $215,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $215,000 Active 571-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $451 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,934 · $328/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,484/yr (+$290/mo · 773.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$451
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$2,100
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$504
• After-tax cash flow: $2,117/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kerrville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825590
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,050
• Composite: 40.54/100
• National rank: #3702
• State rank: #220 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kerrville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #1483

Category grades

Amenities A Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kerr County · 41,206 people
• City population: 41,206
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,206
• Household income: $66,991
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1092.0

Population outlook (Kerr County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 54,010 people
• By 2030: 55,651 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 58,923 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 62,117 · +15.0%
• By 2075: 71,809 · +33.0%
• By 2100: 77,004 · +42.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 12% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Kerr

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.3) · D 22.4% · R 76.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -49.6pp · 2024: -54.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.3 2020: R+51.7 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+59.1 2008: R+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -260.97%
• Current HPI: 213.3663
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.03%
• Metro: Kerrville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Listed $215,000 KVMLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $451 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.