1945 Piner Rd #173 · Santa Rosa, CA 95403

$249,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured · 28 Days on market

Built 1980 Est $223k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.8/30.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Amazing opportunity to own in the desirable Orchard 55+ community. This light filled home is truly delightful. It features a newer roof and new HVAC system (less than a year old), new flooring in both baths and an attached two car garage! Beautifully designed for casual indoor-outdoor living with a wall of sliders out to your private sunroom. The kitchen is spacious and features a remote controlled shade over a special, unique sink. Beautiful French doors off the primary suite lead to a private deck. The primary bath includes dual sinks, a separate tub and shower, and new flooring. There's plenty of outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, or just relaxing. All appliances including the washer and dryer convey with the sale. Park amenities include a community clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, pool, spa, sauna, and much more.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New roof
• Garage

Tags

• DETACHED SINGLE LEVEL HOUSING
• SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SUBDIVISION
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SHOPPING
• SCREENED-IN SUN PORCH SPACE
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FURNACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: The Orchard
• Financial info: Land lease amount applies
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 4 parking spaces; Garage with opener, interior access, side-by-side configuration
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Public sewer; Land lease (yes)
• Home design: Manufactured in park, double wide; Located in a senior community
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood skirting; Manufactured home (Lakewood)
• Exterior features: Enclosed patio; Patio awning; Porch awning

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Parquet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms with double sinks, shower stall(s), and tub
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning; Gas water heater
• Interior features: Cathedral and open beam ceilings; Wet bar; Pantry closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $532 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $246k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 2.5% in Santa Rosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#112 in CA, #3,940 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, cost of living F.
• Santa Rosa High (urban): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #703 of 1,400 in CA (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 199 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($98k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $65k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $186k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $246,151 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.13%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $222,720
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1945 Piner Rd #185	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,363 (-2%)	7mo	$295,000	$216	86
1945 Piner Rd #148	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	7mo	$285,000	$212	86
1945 Piner Rd #49	0.12mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	14mo	$320,000	$238	77
1955 Pinercrest Dr #227	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,224 (-12%)	10mo	$320,000	$261	68
89 Estrella Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	3mo	$230,000	$160	57
26 Chapala Dr	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	9mo	$133,142	$92	54
108 Estrella Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	8mo	$240,000	$167	53
90 Estrella Dr	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+5%)	7mo	$173,000	$118	51
107 Estrella Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	13mo	$160,000	$111	50
109 Estrella Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-10%)	3mo	$165,000	$132	46
40 Estrella Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,600 (+15%)	18mo	$140,000	$88	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-14,666
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-352
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95403

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,860 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $532

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2002 Pinercrest Dr Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	792	$2,350	$2.97	13d	1	0.13mi
2980 Bay Village Cir Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$2,778	$3.01	13d	7	0.15mi
2001 Piner Rd Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	901	$2,473	$2.74	13d	5	0.19mi
2040 Autumn Walk Dr Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1428	$3,450	$2.42	13d	1	0.50mi
2010 Pioneer Way Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.5	880	$2,374	$2.70	13d	2	0.51mi
2300 Waltzer Rd Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,350	$2.35	13d	1	0.64mi
2203 Versaro Dr Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,750	$2.08	13d	1	0.67mi
1938 Terry Rd Unit Main Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	3.0	1604	$3,679	$2.29	13d	1	0.73mi
2316 Dancing Penny Way Unit 1 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,500	$2.50	13d	1	0.78mi
2316 Dancing Penny Way Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1500	$3,500	$2.33	13d	1	0.78mi
2354 Heidi Pl Apt 1 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,000	$2.22	13d	1	0.82mi
2705 Range Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	838	$2,750	$3.28	13d	6	0.92mi
1163 Hopper Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	773	$2,625	$3.40	7d	2	0.96mi
2791 McBride Ln #118 Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1400	$3,500	$2.50	13d	1	1.02mi
2135 Pebblewood Ct Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,400	$2.54	13d	1	1.13mi
1333 W Steele Ln Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	850	$2,450	$2.88	13d	4	1.16mi
561 Renaissance Way Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	876	$2,995	$3.42	13d	18	1.17mi
3610 Mendocino Ave Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	828	$3,995	$4.82	13d	177	1.20mi
2120 Jennings Ave Santa Rosa, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	750	$2,450	$3.27	13d	6	1.32mi
1595 Herbert St Unit 17 Santa Rosa, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$2,195	$2.44	21d	1	1.34mi
1514 Lance Dr Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.5	1185	$3,150	$2.66	21d	1	1.35mi
1217 Jennings Ave Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	2.0	1172	$3,250	$2.77	13d	1	1.39mi
347 Semillon Ln Santa Rosa, CA	3.0	4.0	1812	$3,825	$2.11	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 28 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $249,900 Active 27 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active 27 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active 26 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active 23 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active 18 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $285,000 Active 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $285,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    price $285,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 12 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 11 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 10 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 9 DOM
19. 2026-05-21
    listed $315,000 Active
20. 2021-10-12
    soldstatus $186,000 Closed 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to own in the desirable Orchard 55+ community. This light filled home is truly delightful. It features a newer roof and new HVAC system (less than a year old), new flooring in both baths and an attached two car garage! Beautifully designed for casual indoor-outdoor living with a wall of sliders out to your private sunroom. The kitchen is spacious and features a remote controlled shade over a special, unique sink. Beautiful French doors off the primary suite lead to a private deck. The primary bath includes dual sinks, a separate tub and shower, and new flooring. There's plenty of outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, or just relaxing. All appliances including the washer and dryer convey with the sale. Park amenities include a community clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, pool, spa, sauna, and much more.

21. 2021-09-29
    historical Contingent (No Show) 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to own in the desirable Orchard 55+ community. This light filled home is truly delightful. It features a newer roof and new HVAC system (less than a year old), new flooring in both baths and an attached two car garage! Beautifully designed for casual indoor-outdoor living with a wall of sliders out to your private sunroom. The kitchen is spacious and features a remote controlled shade over a special, unique sink. Beautiful French doors off the primary suite lead to a private deck. The primary bath includes dual sinks, a separate tub and shower, and new flooring. There's plenty of outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, or just relaxing. All appliances including the washer and dryer convey with the sale. Park amenities include a community clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, pool, spa, sauna, and much more.

22. 2021-08-27
    listed $180,000 Active 849-char remark

    Show marketing remark (849 chars)

    Amazing opportunity to own in the desirable Orchard 55+ community. This light filled home is truly delightful. It features a newer roof and new HVAC system (less than a year old), new flooring in both baths and an attached two car garage! Beautifully designed for casual indoor-outdoor living with a wall of sliders out to your private sunroom. The kitchen is spacious and features a remote controlled shade over a special, unique sink. Beautiful French doors off the primary suite lead to a private deck. The primary bath includes dual sinks, a separate tub and shower, and new flooring. There's plenty of outdoor space for entertaining, gardening, or just relaxing. All appliances including the washer and dryer convey with the sale. Park amenities include a community clubhouse, fitness center, tennis courts, pool, spa, sauna, and much more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,317
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,745
• − Management: −$2,745
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $2,560
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$614
• After-tax cash flow: $5,772/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa High
• NCES district ID: 0635830
• Math proficiency: 31% —
• Reading proficiency: 47% —
• Median HH income: $62,000
• Composite: 37.25/100
• National rank: #8972
• State rank: #703 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Santa Rosa

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #112
• US rank: #3940

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Santa Rosa, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 210,074
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 45,806
• Household income: $98,191
• Rent vs Own: 45.2% rent · 54.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 13% Asian 5% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 20% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 26% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -679.94%
• Current HPI: 254.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.10%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+75.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $315,000 BAREIS
• 2021-10-12 Sold (MLS) $186,000 BAREIS
• 2021-09-29 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2021-08-27 Listed $180,000 BAREIS

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $75 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.